If things keep going the way they are going, I think you might have a case. However, the very randomness of nature no one can predict.  

---- Original message ----
>Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2007 11:13:16 -0500
>From: Peter Hunsberger <[log in to unmask]>  
>Subject: Re: history an affront to science?  
>To: [log in to unmask]
>
>Kyle,
>In this case we've got a lot of climate modelers running a lot of different
>climate models mostly all coming to the same conclusions.  Some of the data
>being used goes back over 600,000 years and the model results match the
>actual climate results.  Climate modeling is no longer in it's infancy, it's
>pretty much come to be a mature science over the last 10 years.  Going
>through the research I'm now comfortable saying that it isn't up for debate
>any more, five years ago would have been a different question.  If you want
>to dig into the actual research I can give you the pointers, though I've
>posted the basics here in the past...
>
>And yes, you're right about the flu models; I work for one of the research
>hospitals that helped produce them...
>
>BTW, that's one of the reasons I follow climate modeling; the technology of
>using computer clusters as super computers to do do computer modeling (in
>general) was brought to maturity largely by the climate scientists.
>
>On 11/6/07, Cleveland, Kyle E. <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>>
>> Peter,
>>
>> Depends on who's doing the modeling: Who's writing the code?  Who's
>> creating the scenarios?  Who's interpreting the extrapolated data?
>> Who's deciding which data is input into the model?  Modeling for
>> long-term climactic study is still in its infancy.  We don't really know
>> if "it works".  How can we?  Modeling is based on input of data that has
>> produced predictable, reliable results over time.
>>
>> Personally, I would look at the NIH/CDC models for pandemic flu if you
>> want a good scare.  Using the data from the 1918, 1956 and 1968
>> pandemics, these models are terrifying in that they predict death rates
>> up to 20% in some cases.  This, in a three-surge event over a period of
>> two years.  I think this trumps concerns about climactic change, in my
>> book, and I believe this is a clear and present danger that we need to
>> be marshalling forces for NOW.
>>
>> Public Health officials are absolutely terrified of an influenza
>> pandemic because they have absolutely no means of realistic prophylaxis
>> in the general population.  All we have for direction at the moment is
>> to be vigilant about hand washing and wear an N95 mask (dubious
>> protection for something as small as a virus).
>>
>> I would that our Internet pioneer, Mr. Gore, had put his eggs into this
>> basket if he needed a "cause celebre".  Talk about your Inconvenient
>> Truths...
>>
>> Respectfully,
>>
>> Kyle C.
>>
>
>
>-- 
>Peter Hunsberger
>
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