are we talking bird flu as the start of the pandemic?
this is a scare that history supports. 

--- "Cleveland, Kyle E."
<[log in to unmask]> wrote:

> Peter,
> 
> Depends on who's doing the modeling: Who's writing
> the code?  Who's
> creating the scenarios?  Who's interpreting the
> extrapolated data?
> Who's deciding which data is input into the model? 
> Modeling for
> long-term climactic study is still in its infancy. 
> We don't really know
> if "it works".  How can we?  Modeling is based on
> input of data that has
> produced predictable, reliable results over time.
> 
> Personally, I would look at the NIH/CDC models for
> pandemic flu if you
> want a good scare.  Using the data from the 1918,
> 1956 and 1968
> pandemics, these models are terrifying in that they
> predict death rates
> up to 20% in some cases.  This, in a three-surge
> event over a period of
> two years.  I think this trumps concerns about
> climactic change, in my
> book, and I believe this is a clear and present
> danger that we need to
> be marshalling forces for NOW.
> 
> Public Health officials are absolutely terrified of
> an influenza
> pandemic because they have absolutely no means of
> realistic prophylaxis
> in the general population.  All we have for
> direction at the moment is
> to be vigilant about hand washing and wear an N95
> mask (dubious
> protection for something as small as a virus).
> 
> I would that our Internet pioneer, Mr. Gore, had put
> his eggs into this
> basket if he needed a "cause celebre".  Talk about
> your Inconvenient
> Truths...
> 
> Respectfully,
> 
> Kyle C.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Cerebral Palsy List
> [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf
> Of Peter Hunsberger
> Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2007 10:01 AM
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Re: history an affront to science?
> 
> Ken two words:
> 
> "Computer modeling"
> 
> It didn't exist in very usable form until as
> recently as 15 years ago.
> 
> It does now. It works, it's accurate.
> 
> Stop pretending that 100 year old events, or even 30
> year old events,
> have
> anything to do with the current concern over the
> climate.
> 
> 
> -- 
> Peter Hunsberger
> 
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