Peter,

Depends on who's doing the modeling: Who's writing the code?  Who's
creating the scenarios?  Who's interpreting the extrapolated data?
Who's deciding which data is input into the model?  Modeling for
long-term climactic study is still in its infancy.  We don't really know
if "it works".  How can we?  Modeling is based on input of data that has
produced predictable, reliable results over time.

Personally, I would look at the NIH/CDC models for pandemic flu if you
want a good scare.  Using the data from the 1918, 1956 and 1968
pandemics, these models are terrifying in that they predict death rates
up to 20% in some cases.  This, in a three-surge event over a period of
two years.  I think this trumps concerns about climactic change, in my
book, and I believe this is a clear and present danger that we need to
be marshalling forces for NOW.

Public Health officials are absolutely terrified of an influenza
pandemic because they have absolutely no means of realistic prophylaxis
in the general population.  All we have for direction at the moment is
to be vigilant about hand washing and wear an N95 mask (dubious
protection for something as small as a virus).

I would that our Internet pioneer, Mr. Gore, had put his eggs into this
basket if he needed a "cause celebre".  Talk about your Inconvenient
Truths...

Respectfully,

Kyle C.
-----Original Message-----
From: Cerebral Palsy List [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf
Of Peter Hunsberger
Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2007 10:01 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: history an affront to science?

Ken two words:

"Computer modeling"

It didn't exist in very usable form until as recently as 15 years ago.

It does now. It works, it's accurate.

Stop pretending that 100 year old events, or even 30 year old events,
have
anything to do with the current concern over the climate.


-- 
Peter Hunsberger

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