Pan African Movement wrote:
> THURSDAY POST CARD FEB 17 2000
>
> The result of the historic referendum that took place in Zimbabwe last week end is still being analysed by different interests inside and outside the country. Not least because of the outcome which gave a 53% No vote to the opposition and 44% Yes to the government.
>
> The result was a surprise to many people including the coalition of parties, pressure groups, disgruntled private citizens, anxious special interests, etc that are loosely grouped in the National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) that successfully campaigned against the Draft constitution.
>
> One of the biggest problems with our political culture on this continent is that very often ruling parties or regimes do not prepare themselves for defeat and the opposition also do not prepare itself for victory. As a member of an all African Observer Mission to this referendum one did not get much of an upbeat optimism among the opposition in the pre referendum campaign. As usual they were confident that they would win but many of the leaders were cautious to warn us that their victory will be denied by the government through rigging and other underhand methods. On the other hand the government side was very certain that it would win the Yes campaign hands down. At one of our meetings we asked a leading figure in the YES campaign to consider the implications of defeat. He was quite non charlant about it convinced that the opposition had no chance in hell and that a NO vote will be disastrous for the country. In the end neither the optimism of the government nor the fears of the
> opposition was borne out.
>
> The people of Zimbabwe, albeit only about 20 % of those eligible to vote, went to the polls and deliver a humbling defeat to the government. There is concern about the way forward after the euphoria of victory dies down and bruised egos of those who lost are nursed. What does the NO vote mean?
>
> One, it must worry all the politicians and civil society groups involved in the campaigns that only 20% of voters did turn out. Does that mean that majority of the electorate were not concerned about the whole debate on constitutions or the campaign did not reach them? Two, is a referendum really a good way of deciding complex political issues such as the constitution of a country? In our travels across 6 of the 9 provinces in the country we did not find many people conversant with the details of the constitution. Rather for the NO constituency a no vote meant the exit of President Mugabe and to the Yes people, no change for President Mugabe. Three, does a referendum settle political differences and polarisation in a particular country? The answer is definitely no. Elections, plebiscite, referenda, etc cannot be a substitute for building a genuine national consensus and minimum standards on the rules of engagement.
>
> The ZANU (PF) government which has been in office for all the 20 years of the countrys independence must be searching its soul for a new direction. It cannot hide behind the poor turnout to denigrate the result. It set the rules. If it had won it will not ask by what margins since the system was a first past the poll one. Much as its propagandists will want to separate the person of the president, the party , the government and the Constitutional commission which produced the rejected the Draft Constitution, to many voters this was purely semantic. The result is a big blow to the President, his party and government. He has done the decent thing of licking his wounds in private and publicly promising to stand by the verdict of the people. What does this mean? In the campaigns the YES campaigners insisted that a rejection of the draft constitution will mean a return to the Lancaster House constitution of 1980. For the Noners a No vote is a double No both for the 1999 draft and the
> current Lancaster one. And elections are due early in April or not later than four months after the mandatory dissolution of parliament on the 31st of March.
>
> There are ingredients of a constitutional crisis looming over the country. Both sides need to exercise statesmanship and summon the political courage to build a consensus on how to move forward. The attitude of winner takes all has to be abandoned in favour of genuine dialogue. The referendum result should be an opportunity for a positive re-engagement around the process and procedural issues. MY guess is that most of the constitution, in a proper debate and with widespread civic education will probably be acceptable to a majority of Zimbabweans while the contentious issues (like the powers of the president, separation of powers, Land) can be dealt with transparently.
>
> There are many lessons also for other African countries. First, any referendum, no matter the issue, is a plebiscite on the sitting government. Second, the trust and confidence of the masses cannot and should not be taken for granted especially for a government that has been in power for a long time. Third, it is not possible to separate the economic and social crisis of the people from the political process. Four, no party or government owns the people. If they had supported you in the past, for whatever historical reasons, it does not mean that they will forever be grateful be beholden to you. Fifth, the strategy of abandoning the cities and urban areas to the opposition and counting on the rural vote of the peasants may not be a correct one after all. The rural people as the ZANU (PF) discovered, too late, may vote with their feet and just stay away. Am I talking about Uganda here? Are the parallels that obvious? Across the various political divides in this country I have no doubt
> peoples minds are not far away from Zimbabwe. It will not be for involvement in the DRC.
>
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