the Motley Fools give us a glimpse of how today's information technology
might be used by some in the future in quite novel and different ways.
Welcome to the brave new world.

kelly



URL: http://www.fool.com/portfolios/rulebreaker/1999/rulebreaker990723.htm

                        <THE RULE BREAKER PORTFOLIO>
                               Imagine That!
                     The future. Plus, eBay, ATHM, SBUX

                     by Jeff Fischer ([log in to unmask])

   Alexandria, VA (July 23, 1999) -- We are witnessing a change the scope
   of which we can't yet grasp. However, we can try.
   Increasingly, people are going to think in terms of the "online" world
   and relate to one another in online terms, because the online world
   will represent universality. Therefore, having a leading brand name
   online stands to be much more powerful than having one off-line.
   Online, use of a popular product -- or website -- can spread at
   unprecedented rates. Need evidence? AOL's ICQ messaging service rose
   from nothing to 38 million users in a few years.
   Alongside results, future "possibilities" do matter to a stock price.
   Investors try to value every possibility. Possibility has been driving
   Internet-based stocks from day one; any news that supports a
   possibility feeds the fire. News and possibilities are spreading more
   rapidly than was anticipated.
   Imagine the future online. Imagine universal automation and
   personalization. Imagine being recognized by every site that you
   visit, and therefore being interested in almost all of the information
   (or products) that a site personally serves you. Imagine never needing
   to think about buying milk, butter, eggs, or socks again.
   The first three items (milk, butter, and eggs) will be delivered to
   your door every week in the amount that you usually need, unless you
   instruct otherwise any particular week. The last item (new socks) will
   be delivered to you every six months. Jeans and slacks can be
   delivered every season, too -- and they will fit perfectly every time
   (unless you forget to share that you've lost or gained weight in the
   past year). Everything that can be automated, will be. Time will be
   freed of petty tasks.
   What to do with new time?
   Imagine working for several companies at once. The Internet makes
   marketing one's skills easy. It also provides means to work for a New
   York company in the morning, a California company at night, and a
   European company during your spare time.
   Everyone who wishes to will run a homepage marketing their skills and
   offerings -- essentially creating a personal online brand. Everyone
   will be immediately accessible. A commodity. (Don't shiver.) A company
   can enter specific qualities that it seeks for a project and browse
   worldwide candidates. This is already happening. This will emerge in
   earnest for writing projects of all kinds, software projects, and
   other work that can be safely outsourced and accomplished remotely.
   The Internet will become the primary means of communication. Most
   families will have a homepage. When you want to speak with them,
   you'll approach your always-on high-speed Internet access device and
   open their homepage. The page will immediately tell you if they're
   available. Click a button on their homepage to ring them through their
   always-on Internet connection. In a moment, they might appear on the
   screen in high-quality video, and then in audio. "Hello! How are
   you!?" Both the video and audio technology already exists. Broadband
   access just needs to proliferate.
   If the person you're contacting is already talking to someone, they'll
   have the option of starting a second video and audio conversation with
   you, too, and you can all talk; or else, you'll be told they're not
   available. The page will say, "Mrs. Foolhead is not available. Your
   visit has been registered, however, and she'll return the visit if you
   wish." You'll click, "Yes," and then you'll go cook dinner using a
   recipe from the Internet that resides on a small Internet-surfing
   device (in the kitchen) that comes pre-formatted with hundreds of
   cooking sites and recipes (and allows random Web surfing, too).
   In the washroom, above the medicine chest, will be another small
   Internet-access device. This one will focus on serving health and
   prescription advice and information. Click a button to get any refill.
   Beside your front door is the weather and traffic report on another
   small Internet device. In fact, Internet devices could be as prevalent
   as electrical outlets are now. There is also the Internet device in
   your car's dashboard, which is essential for maps and traffic -- and
   for dining and hotels when traveling.
   Your stereo consists of Internet access and two speakers. Through the
   Internet, you access an endless database of music. Your television
   viewing is also programmable. You can watch any movie or old
   television show (Magnum P.I. comes to mind) that you access online for
   a small fee. Maybe via Amazon or AOL TV.
   Will technology be too invasive? Too omnipresent? Is it already
   becoming so? Cell phones, pagers, laptops, hand-helds. There is even
   an Instant Message service, right now, that can contact you when
   you're off-line. As long as your computer is turned on, this service
   generates enough of a charge to contact you through the phoneline even
   while you're off-line. "Hello. Brian is trying to Instant Message you.
   Please sign on if you wish to talk." Of course, always-on broadband
   will make this unnecessary.
   By the way, America Online (NYSE: AOL) announced that it will block
   Microsoft's (Nasdaq: MSFT) new instant messenger technology from
   working with its ICQ technology. AOL blocks Yahoo!'s (Nasdaq: YHOO)
   instant messenger service, too. "You can't use our infrastructure,"
   AOL says. Fair enough. And given ICQ's lead, it makes sense to raise
   walls around it.
   Returning to the future: In the future, Microsoft will continue to
   launch copycat products two years after another company has done so.

[remainder snipped]


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