----- Original Message -----
From: Andrej Grubacic <[log in to unmask]>
To: <<
Sent: Wednesday, March 01, 2000 4:47 AM
Subject: Re: New US intervention?


> Dear Gilles,
> I am a bit tied up for a moment, but I will reply your mail about life
> conditions here as soon as I catch some breath.
>  I am, when it comes to sentiment of hope, closer to your observations.
But,
> unfortunately, suffering from a very nasty disease, ruthless rationalism,
I
> am with Black in his black predictions.
>  Milosevic has no choice but to defend his position. Haague indictment was
a
> move from the IC (US) to catch him in this immobile position. He is a
> politician and, thusly, corrupted with power. He will do anything to
> preserve it , masking it with pompous phrases. IC , on the other hand,
> obviously knows what it is doing. We could speculate about a coherency in
> applied strategy: behaviour of French forces indicates some unwillingness
to
> follow US; perhaps European elites are trying to avoid another trap made
by
> US to quanch unisation of Europe. Perhaps we have a clean consensus of
> elites here , with a masterfully made prop smoke screen.
>  Anyhow, with Kosovo, Montenegro and Macedonia, and Bugzzy Milosevic as a
> villan suffering from original sin of "nationalism", I dont think that
> Balkans will be left alone.
>   How would this escalation manifest itself? I must admit that I dont
know.
> As an insider , I think that civil war is highly improbable; next thing on
> agenda is escalation of nationalist clashes in Macedonia, in
synchronization
> with rebellion and unrest in Montenegro; this could serve as a pretext for
> NATO action and afirmation as a competetive formation to European Army in
> nascendi.
> And third option is "Romanian solution", engeneered and slow revolution
> after years of slow torturing and iraquization of Yugoslav citizens and
> economy.
> Here, most of the people are convinced that the trigger and pretext will
be
> Montenegro; confrontation between Federal army and Republic police and
> immidiate NATO response.
> USA needs NATO; and only place in Europe where it could demonstrate force
> and indispensibility is, in this moment, this nightmarish geostrategical
> crossroad....
>  Good night!
>                               Andrej