Some predict that blind people will be frozen out of the upcoming gambit
of wireless information services that they predict will occur in the next
few months.  The article below and one to follow puts a reality check on
the whole issue.  There are a number of things that may be potential
barriers and need to be resolved before tens of millions of people adopt
this technology in their lives.  The vision is to access information
anywhere.  Whether this is the solution that delivers that goal is
uncertain.

kelly


The New York Times


July 10, 2000

Wireless Web Has Big Promise but a Few Kinks

By SAUL HANSELL

     It is going to change everything, they say. A new wave of
     technology will put the world at people's fingertips. Pundits speak
     breathlessly of checking stock quotes, sending e-mail messages,
     even buying books at the touch of the button. And investors are
     racing to buy into the companies making it happen.

     Sound like the Internet in 1995? Indeed it does. But today all the
     same hope and promotion are directed at a new generation of
     services offered through cellular telephones, pagers and myriad
     other radio-wave gizmos. All that is missing is a glossy magazine
     to chronicle it all, called, say, Unwired.

     In some ways, the wireless Internet will spread even more quickly
     than the wired one. That is because, from now on, nearly every cell
     phone sold will have standard Web-browser software built in.
     Adapting existing Web sites for use by these wireless browsers is a
     relatively small additional expense. And thanks to the wired
     Internet, tens of millions of people are already in the habit of
     communicating electronically; the transition to wireless access
     should seem but a natural next step to them.

     But despite the analogies to the wired Internet, it is likely to be
     much harder to create services for wireless devices that are easy,
     useful and profitable than it has been for the wired world.

     To start with, slow speeds, tiny screens and tortured methods of
     entering text can make surfing the Net on a cell phone about as
     satisfying an experience as reading a newspaper on a ticker tape
     would be. And while the browser software does not add to the price
     of a phone, most carriers charge users extra fees and per-minute
     rates to send or receive data.

     As for devices like two-way pagers and Palm hand-held computers,
     which have bigger screens and easier ways to enter text, the
     hardware and monthly service fees are even more costly than the
     cell phone services.

     For that matter, it is not clear how much business can be done when
     it takes five minutes and 100 clicks to make an airplane
     reservation wirelessly. And whatever limitations banner
     advertisements may have on the Internet, they are Hollywood
     productions compared with the possibilities on a cell phone screen
     that shows four lines with a maximum of 22 text characters a line.

     "The companies who are marketing this as the Web in your pocket are
     overpromising by a long shot and well could sour the market," said
     Seamus McAteer, an analyst for Jupiter Communications. "A lot of
     the stuff on the Web just doesn't translate to a wireless device
     today. A kid just isn't going to do research for his homework on a
     cell phone."

     Wireless proponents argue that people love their mobility so much
     that they will put up with expensive, hard-to-use data services,
     just as they tolerate the static and cost of cell phones
     themselves. They point to the mobs of teen-agers in Japan and
     Finland using cell phones to send wireless love notes with their
     thumbs.

     America Online, for one, is making a big bet that the most popular
     application on wireless phones, as on its computer service, will be
     buddy lists and instant messages.

     Moreover, proponents argue that in the future technology will allow
     bigger screens, faster data and some sort of easy way to enter text
     -- possibly voice recognition. And they envision complementary
     uses, PCs at home for detailed information searches and exchanges
     and small wireless devices for terse updates.

     "The things that people will do on mobile devices will be
     completely different than on the Web," said Naveen Jain, chairman
     of Infospace, a company that operates parts of the mobile data
     service offered by carriers like AT&T and Verizon Wireless. "You
     want utilitarian, personalized and actionable information."

     Wireless Internet services have been available for several years,
     first in the form of radio modems for laptops that were mainly used
     by corporations that wanted to stay in touch with their traveling
     sales force. More recently, two-way pagers, like the Blackberry,
     made by Research in Motion, have become a status item for
     executives who want to send e-mail on the run.

     The first mass-market wireless data service was over the Palm VII,
     a version of 3Com's popular organizer introduced a year ago with a
     wireless modem built in. So far, the Palm has attracted somewhat
     more than 100,000 wireless customers. More important, it has
     attracted a host of developers creating wireless services.

     Amazon.com, for example, lets wireless Palm VII users search its
     huge selection of books and other products, read user comments and
     order with their one-click accounts. Web portals, including Yahoo
     and Excite at Home's Excite, enable wireless users to tap into
     services like e-mail and stock quotes. Other companies, like
     Omnisky and Go America, have introduced online services and clip-on
     modems that can provide wireless connections for existing hand-held
     devices.

     But experts predict that wireless access on hand-held computers
     will be overshadowed by the use of cell phones. Sprint PCS
     introduced its Wireless Web service last November. It says a third
     of its 7 million phones are now capable of browsing wireless Web
     sites and more than a million have. Last month, AT&T introduced a
     similar service and Monday Verizon, which was formed by the
     combination of Bell Atlantic AirTouch and GTE and is the nation's
     largest wireless carrier, plans to do the same.

     Faced with customer turnover and price wars, the carriers hope data
     services can help restore their profit margins. But they are taking
     sharply divergent approaches to designing and pricing their data
     services.

     Some, like Sprint and Verizon, see wireless data as a major source
     of new revenue. They charge customers a monthly fee of $7 to $10 to
     gain access to data services and then a per-minute fee for each
     minute spent surfing or talking, with a set number included with
     the monthly service plan.

     AT&T has a very different model. For customers who buy a new
     Web-enabled phone, the company will give unlimited free access to
     some 40 information and commerce sites. AT&T customers who want to
     use e-mail must pay $7 a month, and customers who want both e-mail
     and the freedom to go to other wireless sites of their own choosing
     must pay $15 a month. But there is no per-minute charge on either
     plan.

     Much like an advertising-supported Web site, AT&T intends to earn
     money from its free service through commissions from the sales Web
     sites make to AT&T's Web-phone users. It also hopes that users
     whose appetites are whetted by the free service can be persuaded to
     upgrade to the pay services.

     It is unclear, though, how customers will react to AT&T's free
     offer as they discover that the wireless Internet the company
     promises does not include leading services like AOL and Amazon.com.

     "Some of the carriers want to be the control points," said Mohan
     Vishwanath, vice president of Yahoo's mobile unit. "But we all know
     that if anything is going to grow at the rate of the Internet, it
     has to be open."

     The other carriers are not limiting access, but they are
     nonetheless charging Web sites fees to be listed in prominent
     positions in their cramped on-screen menus. Recently, America
     Online supplanted Yahoo as the top item on Sprint's menu after
     reportedly agreeing to a sizable payment.

     "We believe the first several positions are of great value, and we
     have charged for it," said John Garcia, Sprint marketing director.
     He declined to discuss details of the payments.

     Garcia did say, though, that Sprint is not yet sure how crucial
     such payments will be to its business overall. "The most important
     thing now is how many minutes we rack up," he said. But over time,
     the company may experiment with services in which advertisements
     and commissions subsidize some or all of the air time, as AT&T is
     doing.

     Some Web site operators are bristling at the demands for payment.

     "We don't believe in paying tremendous amounts to get listed," said
     Ali Hussein, the marketing director for Amazon.com's wireless
     service. "There is a definite benefit to the carriers to have
     Amazon's brand and features on their service."

     That said, nearly every major Web site is developing a wireless
     version of its service and is paying whatever it takes to be on as
     many menus as possible. Amazon, for example, has reached deals for
     prominent display on Sprint and Verizon's service, but not on
     AT&T's.

     But it is not clear just how much Internet sites might benefit from
     these wireless deals. For now, the sites primarily want to retain
     their customers who happen to use wireless services, even if there
     is no immediate revenue to be gained.

     Travelocity.com, the online travel service, will soon allow people
     to make reservations from a cell phone, though it expects people
     will not want to do that very often. More valuable, perhaps, as a
     convenience to its most profitable business travelers, is the new
     system Travelocity has developed that will let travelers change
     their return flights with just a few clicks.

     "You're not going to use a phone to say 'Where should I go for a
     cruise?"' said Terrell B. Jones, chief executive of Travelocity.
     "But if you are in a meeting that is running long, wouldn't you
     like to use your phone to pull up your reservation and click a
     button marked 'Later?"'

     So far there are no banner ads on wireless services, but the Web
     sites are looking for ways to weave advertising in somewhere.
     Yahoo, for example, offers a service that will send brief news,
     weather or sports reports to users' phones, and those messages are
     sponsored by advertisers.

     ZDnet, the technology information site, will also soon weave some
     advertising into the text of its articles about computers and
     technology that users read wirelessly. Later, ZDnet hopes to earn
     fees from referring customers to computer stores.

     In short, the wireless strategy for most Web sites is to become big
     fast and figure out how to make money later.

     See? It does sound like the Internet all over again, doesn't it?


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