>Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 14:45:35 -0600 (CST)
>From: Ahmed F Mbalia <[log in to unmask]>
>To: doreatha mbalia <[log in to unmask]>,
> dosali waiss <[log in to unmask]>, AGreenlee <[log in to unmask]>,
> KIMPAJOOF <[log in to unmask]>,
> Adrienne Muhammad <[log in to unmask]>,
> Michael Williams <[log in to unmask]>
>Subject: Cameroon/Nigeria (fwd)
>
>
>
>---------- Forwarded message ----------
>Date: Tue, 4 Jan 2000 18:43:48 -0600 (EST)
>From: "[log in to unmask]" <[log in to unmask]>
>To: [log in to unmask]
>Subject: Cameroon/Nigeria
>
>
>STRATFOR.COM's Global Intelligence Update - January 5, 2000
>
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>STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update
>January 5, 2000
>
>
>Nigeria-Cameroon Border Dispute Heats Up
>
>Summary
>
>Part of Nigeria's air force was placed on maximum alert Jan. 3,
>reportedly because France is building a military base in a town
>near the Bakassi peninsula. Nigeria and French-allied Cameroon have
>long contested the oil-rich peninsula. The dispute is currently
>being arbitrated in the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
>Despite a 1996 ICJ ruling to refrain from military activities until
>a final court decision is reached, Nigeria and Cameroon seem to be
>re-igniting the issue while France fuels the fire. The issue has
>shifted from one of legality to one of securing oil interests at
>any cost. It is becoming apparent that Nigeria, Cameroon and France
>will not be satisfied with a court ruling but rather favor a
>military solution to the peninsula debate.
>
>
>Analysis
>
>The Nigerian air force (NAF), based on the eastern flank of the
>Tactical Air Command in the cities of Yola and Maiduguri, was
>placed on maximum alert Jan. 3, reported the Nigerian newspaper
>Vanguard. The Nigerian army's armored division in Maiduguri was
>also placed on alert. The National Security Council, headed by
>Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, reportedly directed the
>immediate reactivation and upgrading of the two NAF bases in Yola
>and Maiduguri. According to the report, the bases, which house the
>air force assault helicopter squadron, were ordered to be ready by
>the end of the month.
>
>Vanguard defense sources said that the alert followed Nigeria's
>discovery that France was building a military base in Gagura, a
>town in Cameroon located near the disputed peninsula border with
>Nigeria. The Bakassi peninsula is a 400 square mile area that juts
>out into the Gulf of Guinea and is rich in oil reserves. According
>to the report, the French base is nearly completed and has
>facilities for deploying military aircraft. Vanguard's sources said
>the decision to build the base might be connected with Cameroon's
>ambition to control the peninsula by any means. It is likely that
>France - a strong ally since Cameroon's independence - has
>interests in the peninsula's oil. Both countries lay claim to the
>area, which has a Nigerian majority population.
>
>The dispute over this peninsula dates back to the 19th century when
>Western colonial powers divided Africa. Britain and Germany failed
>to move the dividing line between what is now Nigeria and Cameroon
>far enough out into the Gulf of Guinea, which left the Bakassi
>peninsula in limbo. A 1913 agreement would have ceded Bakassi from
>British-colonized Nigeria to the German protectorate of Kamerun,
>but Britain and Germany went to war in 1914. After Germany's WWI
>defeat, Cameroon was divided between the British and the French but
>the peninsula issue remained unresolved. An agreement similar to
>the one in 1913 was reportedly drawn up in 1975 as a reward to
>Cameroon for its neutrality during the Nigerian civil war in
>1967-70. However, Nigeria now claims that any such document is null
>and void because it was never ratified before Nigerian authorities
>were toppled in a 1975 military coup.
>
>Since 1975, border tension has continued. Several bloody clashes
>have left casualties on both sides, igniting public outrage.
>Nigerian military authorities in 1993-94 often accused Cameroon
>paramilitaries of burning down villages and displacing thousands of
>ethnic Nigerians. Full armed conflict broke out in 1994, and
>Cameroon brought a case before the International Court of Justice
>(ICJ) in March of that year.
>
>While the legal issue is tied up in the ICJ, the real issues are
>beginning to emerge. France cooperates militarily with Cameroon.
>The two have a defense agreement, and France continues to remain
>active in Africa ( http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/111497.asp ).
>It now appears that Paris also has oil interests in the peninsula
>and is willing to protect them militarily. In July 1999, Africa
>News reported that Nigerian soldiers had sent letters to their
>government complaining about deplorable living conditions while
>stationed on the peninsula. In these letters, the soldiers also
>reported that some 30 oil rigs drilled on a daily basis between
>East Atabong, a Nigerian camp, and Edima Abasi, where Cameroon
>paramilitaries are stationed. The soldiers reported that the French
>oil consortium ELF is responsible not only for the oil drilling,
>but also for copious funding to maintain the Cameroon
>paramilitaries.
>
>If Cameroon, and by extension France, is eager to solve the dispute
>militarily, Nigeria will likely oblige. After all, Abuja has not
>fared well in the legal battle occurring in the ICJ. When Cameroon
>took the case to the ICJ, Nigeria challenged the court's authority
>to hear the case. The court ruled that it did have jurisdiction. In
>November 1998, Nigeria then filed an appeal requesting an
>interpretation of the judgment. The ICJ declared that request
>"inadmissible" in March 1999. The international tribunal will
>eventually come to a ruling based on legality and fairness, rather
>than Nigerian and French oil interests. An ICJ solution is unlikely
>to benefit any party involved, leaving military action the optimal
>strategic solution.
>
>
>(c) 2000, Stratfor, Inc.
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