This might also be an argument against 'likely to become'
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/8/1/holder-data-sentencing.html
“'Some proponents describe past records as a
measure of risk, but what we know is that a
person’s past record is the product of two
things: One is engagement in crime and the other
is the level of surveillance they experience,'
Ghandnooh said, adding that police forces
typically have a heavier presence in low-income
and minority areas making individuals in those
communities more likely to be arrested in the first place."
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