Steve,

Thanks for sharing that article.  Very interesting and just when Butch 
forked over a fortune for a new radio, too.  Poor fellow.  What puzzles me 
is that I thought we were the cause of climate change and global warming. 
Now we find out, as if we didn't already know for years, that the sun plays 
one hell of a roll in climate change.  No more long path for a few years, I 
guess.  Bummer.  It beats having the sun nova, that's for sure.  I 
definitely don't want to be around for that climate change, when the sun 
goes nova, that is.  Especially when they now know a complete nova, for a 
sun our size, can cycle through a complete nova in 7 years; start to finish.

Phil.
K0NX





----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Steve" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Wednesday, June 15, 2011 10:28 AM
Subject: Scientists predict rare 'hibernation' of sunspots


>  a.. a.. Print
> AFP/File =E2=80=93 For years, scientists have been predicting the Sun =
> would move into solar maximum, a period of intense =E2=80=A6=20
> by Kerry Sheridan Kerry Sheridan =E2=80=93 Tue Jun 14, 5:38 pm ET
> WASHINGTON (AFP) =E2=80=93 For years, scientists have been predicting =
> the Sun would by around 2012 move into solar maximum, a period of =
> intense flares and sunspot activity, but lately a curious calm has =
> suggested quite the opposite.
>
> According to three studies released in the United States on Tuesday, =
> experts believe the familiar sunspot cycle may be shutting down and =
> heading toward a pattern of inactivity unseen since the 17th century.
>
> The signs include a missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower =
> activity near the poles, said experts from the National Solar =
> Observatory and Air Force Research Laboratory.
>
> "This is highly unusual and unexpected," said Frank Hill, associate =
> director of the NSO's Solar Synoptic Network, as the findings of the =
> three studies were presented at the annual meeting of the American =
> Astronomical Society's Solar Physics Division in Las Cruces, New Mexico.
>
> "But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in =
> the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be =
> going into hibernation."
>
> Solar activity tends to rise and fall every 11 years or so. The solar =
> maximum and solar minimum each mark about half the interval of the =
> magnetic pole reversal on the Sun, which happens every 22 years.
>
> Hill said the current cycle, number 24, "may be the last normal one for =
> some time and the next one, cycle 25, may not happen for some time.
>
> "This is important because the solar cycle causes space weather which =
> affects modern technology and may contribute to climate change," he told =
> reporters.
>
> Experts are now probing whether this period of inactivity could be a =
> second Maunder Minimum, which was a 70-year period when hardly any =
> sunspots were observed between 1645-1715, a period known as the "Little =
> Ice Age."
>
> "If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we'll see for a =
> few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to =
> Earth's climate," said Hill.
>
> Solar flares and eruptions can send highly charged particles hurtling =
> toward Earth and interfere with satellite communications, GPS systems =
> and even airline controls.
>
> Geomagnetic forces have been known to occasionally garble the world's =
> modern gadgetry, and warnings were issued as recently as last week when =
> a moderate solar flare sent a coronal mass ejection in the Earth's =
> direction.
>
> The temperature change associated with any reduction in sunspot activity =
> would likely be minimal and may not be enough to offset the impact of =
> greenhouse gases on global warming, according to scientists who have =
> published recent papers on the topic.
>
> "Recent solar 11-year cycles are associated empirically with changes in =
> global surface temperature of 0.1 Celsius," said Judith Lean, a solar =
> physicist with the US Naval Research Laboratory.
>
> If the cycle were to stop or slow down, the small fluctuation in =
> temperature would do the same, eliminating the slightly cooler effect of =
> a solar minimum compared to the warmer solar maximum. The phenomenon was =
> witnessed during the descending phase of the last solar cycle.
>
> This "cancelled part of the greenhouse gas warming of the period =
> 2000-2008, causing the net global surface temperature to remain =
> approximately flat -- and leading to the big debate of why the Earth =
> hadn't (been) warming in the past decade," Lean, who was not involved in =
> the three studies presented, said in an email to AFP.
>
> A study in the March 2010 issue of Geophysical Research Letters explored =
> what effect an extended solar minimum might have, and found no more than =
> a 0.3 Celsius dip by 2100 compared to normal solar fluctuations.
>
> "A new Maunder-type solar activity minimum cannot offset the global =
> warming caused by human greenhouse gas emissions," wrote authors Georg =
> Feulner and Stefan Rahmstorf, noting that forecasts by the =
> Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have found a range of 3.7 =
> Celsius to 4.5 Celsius rise by this century's end compared to the latter =
> half of the 20th century.=20
>
> "Moreover, any offset of global warming due to a grand minimum of solar =
> activity would be merely a temporary effect, since the distinct solar =
> minima during the last millennium typically lasted for only several =
> decades or a century at most."
>