Retiring Mugabe
By Aryeh Neier
At least for purposes of public consumption, southern Africa’s political
leaders continue to stand by Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe, despite his
country’s ever-deepening economic crisis, which is directly attributable to
his tyrannical rule. Indeed, years of economic mismanagement have produced
an unemployment rate of 80%, with annual inflation nearing 5,000%.
Though Zimbabwe was once known as “the breadbasket of Africa,” many of its
citizens now go hungry and depend on international food donations for
survival. About 3,000 people flee the country every day, often risking their
lives when crossing the crocodile-infested Limpopo River – celebrated in
Kipling’s tale of “How the Elephant Got Its Trunk” – and scaling a border
fence to enter South Africa.
By now, emigration is more than three million, about a quarter of the
population. Yet when Mugabe was introduced at the most recent meeting of the
Southern African Development Community (SADC) in Zambia’s capital, Lusaka,
his fellow heads of state heartily applauded him.
There are reports that, behind the scenes, things are different. South
African President Thabo Mbeki is said to be trying to negotiate a way for
Mugabe to leave the scene. Yet there have been similar rumors before, and it
is difficult to know whether Mbeki and the other southern African leaders
are finally willing to tell Mugabe that he must go. Up to now, paying their
respects to him as a revolutionary leader, and catering to his megalomania,
has been more important to them than alleviating the suffering of Zimbabwe’s
people.
The obvious way for Mugabe to leave at age 83 would be to announce that he
has changed his mind about running again in the presidential election now
scheduled for March 2008. Of course, should Mugabe stand down, a fair
election next March probably would not be possible. The political opposition
would have little capacity to organize an effective campaign in an
environment in which Mugabe has shut down independent media, rewritten
electoral rules, and used the police to pummel – literally – his
adversaries.
So a period of transition would be required for a proper election to be
organized under the auspices of the SADC, with support from the African
Union, Europe, and the United States, in order to get a fair result and
launch a recovery process. Yet, given the brief period that remains until
the scheduled election, an announcement is required soon if a fair result is
to be achieved and a recovery process launched to halt the country’s slide
into chaos.
A big factor in any timetable for Zimbabwe’s rescue is Thabo Mbeki’s tenure.
He has just over a year-and-a-half to go to complete his second and final
five-year term as South Africa’s president. In certain respects, he has been
a success. Under his leadership, South African’s multiracial democracy has
been consolidated, and, in dramatic contrast to neighboring Zimbabwe, its
economy is flourishing.
Yet Mbeki’s achievement is severely marred by two failures. Domestically,
his poor performance in addressing South Africa’s HIV/AIDS epidemic will
ensure that he is judged harshly. Internationally, his record is stained by
his lack of leadership up to now in dealing with Zimbabwe.
Nevertheless, even at this late date, Mbeki has a chance to salvage a good
part of his reputation by taking the lead in organizing a transition in
Zimbabwe. But, given the amount of time a transition will take, he must act
now.
Even when a transition does take place in Zimbabwe, the crisis will not be
over. The country has been so devastated by the Mugabe regime that
substantial international engagement will be required to put it back on its
feet. For now, however, the SADC should, at long last, tell Mugabe that he
must step aside, and it should take responsibility for managing an electoral
process whose result Zimbabweans will recognize as fair, thereby providing
the legitimacy needed for recovery to begin.
Aryeh Neier, the president of the Open Society Institute and a founder of
Human Rights Watch, is the author most recently of Taking Liberties: Four
Decades in the Struggle for Rights.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2007.
www.project-syndicate.org
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