Several points to make here.
First, Mike, you keep going on about having to cut frivolous government
spending. I have two issues with that statement. One, last I remember,
Google and Toyota were not government funded. Second, if you mean that
the government needs to cut our frivolous defense spending, well, maybe
you are correct. The vast majority of money that has gone into autonomous
vehicles so far, has come from DARPA.
Next, I don't understand what the advantage of even bothering to develop
autonomous road vehicles might be, if it is required that a driver pay
just as much attention, even more so, while driving. If a driver is
actually in control of the car, they are supposedly paying attention to
everything that is going on around them. If a driver has to be on the
lookout for the car doing something wrong, the driver needs to be even
more on guard, because they have to react even faster to recognize a
dangerous situation, then recognize that the car has failed to identify
that situation, then take corrective action. That is inherently less safe
than either the driver or the car just being the primary navigator.
Possibly the answer would be that the driver is the primary navigator and
the car would jump in if it thought the driver was doing something
dangerous. Although, that means that people will be more apt to pay less
attention to what is going on around them because they will figure the car
will prevent them from doing anything too dangerous. The upshot of that
will be that the car becomes the defacto primary navigator.
Next, you may not believe that you would entrust your life to GPS or
autonomous navigation, but maybe you don't realize that you already do.
Or possibly you don't fly in commercial airplanes, so you don't. The fact
is that some airlines require that, when ceiling and visibility limits
drop below certain thresholds, the pilot is not allowed to land the
airplane, it must be done under autopilot.
Lastly, just because a test required a driver to intercede, means nothing.
If after a year or two of testing, the system worked flawlessly, I would
be quite impressed indeed.
I don't believe autonomous vehicles will be on the roads tomorrow, or in
five years. But I am putting my money on 15 to 20 years, especially since
it is now obvious that private companies see that it must be economically
viable.
--
Blue skies.
Dan Rossi
Carnegie Mellon University.
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Tel: (412) 268-9081
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