By 2030, the three leading causes of illness will be HIV/AIDS,
depression, and ischemic heart disease in the baseline and
pessimistic scenarios. In the optimistic scenario, road-traffic
accidents (which increase with socioeconomic development) will
replace heart disease as the number 3 killer.
http://medicine.plosjournals.org/perlserv/?request=get-document&doi=10.1371%2Fjournal.pmed.0030442
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