Joe,
Yes indeed, I agree with most of what you say about Lawyer Darboe, but
perhaps that is basically because you and I happen to be on the Same side of
the political divide. At this point some militants tend to be sentimental,
and that is never helpful when the undesirable, from some partisan point of
view, happens. I have never had quarrel with my compatriots who support
UDP/NRP simply because they take nothing from NADD.Oops! In other words,
they have not taken away from that coalition more than they actually brought
into the Grand Coalition. Secondly, all things being the same, the split of
the Grand Coalition cannot be said in numerical terms to have tilted the
balance between the opposition and the incumbent A(F)PRC. Thirdly, It can be
said with a reasonable amount of certainty that those UDP/NRP elements who
were in The Grand Coalition as a matter of principle, are more likely to
remain in NADD. These are some of the reasons I still See them as comrades
in-arms against the dictatorship.
On the other hand, because of the old fashioned ethnic politics that Jammeh
and his cohorts have reinforced in The Gambia, the competition between NADD
and the A(F)PRC is sharper than between NADD and the UDP/NRP coalition. In
this context, both NADD and the incumbent dictatorship are likely to make
strong showings in areas which are ethnically mixed. Here NADD has two trump
cards: these are the PPP factor and PDOIS/NDAM factor.
If the PPP is abled to reach out to a good number of its former supporters
and attract them to NADD, tremendous inroads would have been made into
A(F)PRC's ranks which constitute a considerable reduction of the 52%
dictator Jammeh garnered at the last presidential poll. But unfortunately,
this factor is negatively affected by lack of a charismatic figure of former
president Jawara'sl calibre. Without doubt if former vice presidents Sabally
and Darboe were in the country, there would have been an added impetus to
the PPP factor, that is if the two are abled to work together for ther
former party.
It is a known fact that PDOIS is very attractive to urban and educated
youths and it is therefore assumed that the presence of NDAM in NADD will
sharpen this factor. To conclude, If the ethnically mixed, PPP and
PDOIS/NDAM--youth factors work well, it is very possible to have a NADD
president-elect in the next twenty-four hours.
However, one should not underestimate UDP/NRP's potential for doing well
amongst minorities, particularly inview of the presence of Hamat and Dr
Gomez. The latter can really be a vote-catcher in Kombo Saint Mary's
Administrative Area, Central River and Western Divisions. I have a very
political friend who has always commented about the Manjako during elections
thus: " Men you must have someone who talks to them directly!" And in Dr
Gomez the Alliance for Regime Change (ARC) may have a person in that regard
depending on whether he can speak the language. Thus I beg to differ with
you in dismissing him completely. I would rather see him as an unknown
factor.
There is a strong UDP factor in the biggest slice of the electorate: that is
women plus girl voters. Most of PPP'S former "Yaye- compins" now work for
the A(F)PRC. A good number of The National Convention Party's(NCP's) "
Yaye-compins" are with The UDP. Such leaders on both sides also tend to have
maintained their former followings during The First Republic. If reports
that The ARC has made some gains in certain areas of Bakau Constituency are
correct, it should be regarded as a reinforcement of one of their bases.When
ARC takes votes from A(F)PRC, that is very good for opposition efforts since
generally, they are less likely to do so than NADD. They are more likely to
make a stronger showing amongst women than NADD, so again they can be an
asset to opposition efforts to undermind the incumbent in that area. There
is no doubt that ARC will make its greater showing amongst the mandinka
single majority ethnic group. If this is coupled with an unexpected great
showing amongst the minorities, plus NADD making significant inroads into
A(f)PRC's ranks, an ARC president-elect make be decleared in the next
twenty-four hours.
At the time the members of the AFPRC military junta transformed themselves
into civilian politicians in the mid 1990s, they were not having a solid
base among The Gambian electorate. Their most reliable support came from The
July 22ND Youth Movement(J22ND). The J22ND could never win elections in The
Gambia. Thus one of the best strategic moves that The A(F)PRC has ever made
includes organizing opportunistic elements of the former PPP into a party.
It should be noted that those who left the PPP becuase they felt Sir Dawda
had betrayed his traditional support base(The Mandinka), politically can
hardly live under the same roof with those(The Wollof) whose rising
influence in the party led to their rebellion. In the immediate post-coup
period therefore, former NCP elements were very supportive of The Military
Junta, up to the time their party was banned with all First Republic parties
except The PDOIS. Indeed they left enmass and only a minute number joined
their leader Sheriff Mustapha Dibba in forming an alliance with A(F)PRC.
Currently therefore, a greater number of former NCP militants are in The
UDP, while the overwhelming majority of militants in the A(F)PRC are from
pre-coup PPP.
Enrolling a large number of Former PPP's "yaye-compins" has given the
A(F)PRC assurance of control over a large chunk of women/girl voters. This
continuous to be their area of strong support. Youths in general were very
supportive of the Junta in the early days of their coming to power. However,
unemployment, draconian measures in dealing with "Bomsters" and the April
10th/11th Student demonstrations, have decimated this base. Unemployment
among youths is still high, the "Bomster" problem is still unresolved, and
the reconciliation with students remains controversial. A strong showing in
these two areas is a must for a Jammeh Victory. If the A(F)PRC is abled to
not only defend its support in these areas but also make gains, the
president-elect to be declared in the next twenty-four hours will be theirs.
THE STRUGGLE CONTINUES,
Omar Joof.
>From: "Joe Sambou" <[log in to unmask]>
>Reply-To: [log in to unmask]
>To: [log in to unmask]
>Subject: RE: [>-<] Gambia: The Alliance Storms Into Sere Kunda
>Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 15:32:14 +0000
>
>[ This e-mail is posted to Gambia|Post e-Gathering by "Joe Sambou"
><[log in to unmask]> ]
>
>
>"Justifying his withdrawal from NADD, Darboe elucidated that he withdrew
>because the initial objective(s) of NADD was defeated as the kind of
>alliance that it was meant to be never saw the light of day. For Darboe,
>the idea and raison d'etre of forming NADD was not to uproot the APRC and
>Jammeh but to undermine him and the UDP, thus advancing Jammeh's
>interests."
>
>Deceit! Deceit! and more Deceit! Now, NADD was undermining Ousainou to
>serve the interest of Jammeh, the reason why Ousainou left NADD. Folks,
>this is an insult to our collect intelligence. How many stories is he
>going to come up with for his quitting NADD? Well, I feel for Gambians if
>the UDP leads Gambia, because it will be the same game of lies and Deceit
>that we shall face, yet again. If you take away the killings by Yaya,
>Ousainou's mindset is no different from Yaya's. He lied that he signed
>contracts with the outside world to aid Gambia, who among us here believe
>that contracts with nations are signed before one assumes office? Remember
>when Yaya held a diskette and told Gambians that it contained the contracts
>with Oil Explorers and they are going to start drilling soon? Same
>gimmick. That is what this elections has boiled down to. If the UDP after
>twelve years cannot even come with a road map of where they want to lead
>Gambia and had to resort to stealing the same nonsense that APRC is using
>to lead us to the abyss, then Gambians are asking for more of the same with
>Ousainou and the UDP. I thought Gambians were fighting for progress and
>not more of the same?
>
>"Meanwhile, Hamat Bah, NRP Secretary General, said Darboe has been ordained
>by Allah to salvage Gambians from the 12-year APRC doldrums."
>
>As to fast walking and talking Hamat (literally), the above sums this
>clown. Yes, folks, in this twenty first century, this snake oil salesman
>would say anything that comes to his peanut head. Is this not the same
>that FJC, Yanks, et al tells Gambians - that Yaya is ordained by Allah?
>Hamat will trip his grandmother and dove suicidally, to get to be vice
>president, and at any cost. They started by telling Gambians that Ousainou
>was ordained by his Grandfather to lead Gambia. Now, the slick is telling
>us that Ousainou is in fact ordained by Allah to Salvage Gambia. Now you
>see how sick this fellow can be. Let's say Yaya steals this elections and
>Gambians let him get away with it, what happens to this ointment by Allah?
>Would Hamat have lied to Gambians? Alternatively, did Hamat get it wright
>but Allah told him wrong? Folks, you see where I'm going with this and
>unless we are stingy with the truth, Hamat is a con and a fraud. At the
>rate he is going, Hamat, may just increase the stakes by telling Gambians
>that Ousainou's ordination actually came from a higher power than Allah
>(like the joke "Horse aak Fass Bu Daaxha Daaw"). Just watch Hamat hurt
>himself! This tells you what is in this man's mind. He ain't thinking of
>liberating Gambians but to milk us for all we got, before he even get to
>it. What's next, is Ousainou going to tell us later that he has Allah's
>bank as his source of revenue, just like Yaya tells Gambians?
>
>I have refrained from mentioning Henry Gomez, for he is immaterial in our
>discussion. However, since he is the third stooge, I will dilate on him a
>bit. We all know that Ousainou and Hamat needed him, so, they can call
>their's a three party alliance, to juxtapose across the street from NADD.
>They may take solace that they are using Henry, but alas. I know some of
>the readership that know sweet talking and fast blinking Henry (literally)
>of Flemings, are dying with laughter, of their gross under estimation of
>Henry G. Henry was trying to woo Yaya all this while and when he saw that
>he and Yaya are cut from the same cloth - deceitful, and the vultures
>around Yaya did not give him entrance, he quickly adapted. Who among us
>believe that Henry did not know that the cooked up constitution by Jammeh
>disqualified him for his residency longevity? He may not be book smart,
>but Henry was slick right after he switched from diapers. Counsel, watch
>your wallet with Henry Gambians, that is all I got to tell folks. Those
>that know Henry know exactly what I'm talking about. So, what is the
>difference between these three Amigos with Yaya. They have more in common
>than not, just close your eyes and listen to them, and you will come to
>realize that their mind and tone are one and the same.
>
>So, folks, the UDP and the APRC have the same agenda and it is not good for
>Gambia. NADD is the only hope for Gambia in this three way race, and no
>academic analysis can alter that. NADD told you exactly what they will do
>for you and that you the people, are going to take back your country from
>the criminal in Yaya Jammeh. They are not here to usurp power but to lay
>the foundation for a Gambia for all. If you are against political
>patronage vote NADD. If you want term limits, vote NADD. If you want a
>limit to presidential powers, vote NADD. If you are against corruption,
>vote NADD. If you want a better government and progress, vote NADD. If
>you want press freedom, vote NADD, and on and on.
>
>However, if you want the status quo of corruption, thuggry, and a
>continuation of the same ole crap for the past forty years, by all means
>support those that represent that view - APRC and the UDP gang. The
>choices cannot be more distinguishable, Gambians! It is now in the hands
>of the voter as I write. I hope our people vote for progress and vote
>NADD.
>
>Chi Jaama
>
>Joe
>
>
>
>
>
>>From: "Fye Samateh" <[log in to unmask]>
>>Reply-To: [log in to unmask]
>>To: <[log in to unmask]>
>>Subject: [>-<] Gambia: The Alliance Storms Into Sere Kunda
>>Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2006 07:40:23 +0200
>>
>>Gambia: The Alliance Storms Into Sere Kunda
>>
>>
>>
>> Email This Page
>>
>> Print This Page
>>
>> Visit The Publisher's Site
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>The Gambia Journal (Banjul)
>>
>>September 20, 2006
>>Posted to the web September 21, 2006
>>
>>Banjul
>>
>>The campaign team of the UDP/NRP/GPDP Alliance, which has been on a
>>nationwide tour over the past two weeks, has arrived in Sere Kunda, the
>>Gambia's largest city.
>>
>>The arrival of the team, welcomed by many enthusiastic supporters, the
>>team's convoy of scores of vehicles cruised into Sere kunda amidst the
>>rapturous applause and jubilations of people.
>>
>>All along the road from Brikama to Tabokoto, people dressed in yellow
>>chanted their support for the three leaders of the Alliance and waving the
>>three colors of the constituting parties. Many were too were clad in the
>>T-shirts bearing the portraits of Hamat Bah, Henry Gomez and Ousainou
>>Darboe. The convoy was on the last leg of a feverish tour round the
>>country. Many observers say that the three-week period of campaign has
>>been, by and large, free of the type troubles and violence that mired the
>>2001 campaign.
>>
>>Thursday's following in its storm into Serekunda is further raising hopes
>>that the elections will be closely contested between the APRC and the
>>Alliance of opposition parties. Some observers have however raised the
>>fears that the ruling party may resort to massive recruitment of votes by
>>non-nationals. Yankuba Touray's persistent call at recently held rallies
>>in the Greater Banjul Area that people whose names are not on the register
>>should not let themselves be stopped from voting have been cited as
>>indications of such intentions on the side of the ruling APRC.
>>
>>Addressing the various political meetings, the three-party alliance's flag
>>bearer, Lawyer Ousainou Darboe, has been reminding his audiences of the
>>UDP/NRP/GPDP alliance's plans to revitalize, rejuvenate and revolutionize
>>the agriculture sector, improve the education and health sectors as
>>'enshrined' in the alliance's manifesto.
>>
>>According to Darboe, the time has finally come for Gambians to take stock
>>of the 12-year APRC rule and to reassess and evaluate Mr. Jammeh and his
>>party since 1994. He also made a passionate appeal to members of the
>>security forces, governors, chiefs and civil servants to desist from
>>partisan politics as that is contrary to the country's laws from getting
>>involved in partisan politics. "Governments come and go but the state, the
>>people always remain. Do whatever is within the confines of the law," Mr.
>>Darboe has been saying.
>>
>> Relevant Links
>>
>> West Africa
>> Gambia
>>
>>
>>
>>Lawyer Darboe also used the various rallies to harp on what he called the
>>untold suffering that Mr. Jammeh and his ruling APRC has wrought on
>>Gambians in the past 12 years. "Before the advent of 1994, buses used to
>>ply the roads of URD but at present the story is different. Even school
>>buses are no longer seen on our roads and yet fleets of vehicles would be
>>marshalled when he (Jammeh) embarks on campaign," he lamented.
>>
>>Turning to the youth, Mr. Darboe said that if voted into office, a
>>UDP/NRP/GDPD-led administration would establish a scheme which would help
>>impart relevant skills to the youth and set up a loan scheme with lower
>>interest rate for Gambian youth.
>>
>>Justifying his withdrawal from NADD, Darboe elucidated that he withdrew
>>because the initial objective(s) of NADD was defeated as the kind of
>>alliance that it was meant to be never saw the light of day. For Darboe,
>>the idea and raison d'etre of forming NADD was not to uproot the APRC and
>>Jammeh but to undermine him and the UDP, thus advancing Jammeh's
>>interests. Meanwhile, Hamat Bah, NRP Secretary General, said Darboe has
>>been ordained by Allah to salvage Gambians from the 12-year APRC doldrums.
>>
>>
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