On Mon, 20 Nov 2006 10:32:23 -0600, Robert Kesterson <[log in to unmask]>
wrote:
>For these scenarious to happen, you'd have to have paleo foods displace
>modern foods entirely. You're describing a "paleo or nothing" situation,
>which I just don't see happening.
Not really. With increasing demand and limited supply, any commodity will
experience dramatic price increases long before it runs out. As Cordain
implied, the total possible future supply of Paleo foods, even accounting
for maximum increases in production of Paleo foods, would not feed more
than about 600 million people. In market economies, long before 600
million people started buying Paleo foods the prices would have risen
dramatically.
>People would much rather eat grain than
>starve (or steal), even if paleo food would be better for them.
Granted, my scenario was extreme, partly tongue-in-cheek, but if foods
become valuable or desirable enough, people will steal them to sell them
if not to use them themselves. Witness what happens when a food becomes
very expensive, as with the black truffle:
"[I]n France police are faced with increasingly sophisticated methods of
black-truffle theft by bands of armed, hooded thieves who come at night
and unearth the delicious treats with the aid of mobile phones, infrared
glasses and specially trained dogs."
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m3190/is_4_39/ai_n9487388
Extinction of food animals is another major threat. Chinese demand for
shark fin soup has contributed to the decline of some shark species "by
99% over the last 50 years." (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shark_fin_soup)
The price in North America of truffles can reach as high as $1,500 per
kilogram. The price of shark fins at the dock ran as high as $75 a piece
in 2003 and even dried shark meat ran as high as $69 per kg in 2005. Yes,
these examples are extreme because I wanted to show just how far things
can go when a non-modern food becomes highly prized. I believe truffles
and shark fins and meat would qualify as Paleo foods (Paleo-like, to be
exact), by the way, so some Paleo foods are already exhorbitantly
expensive. I am not aware of any grains or legumes that are this pricey.
|
