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News Analysis: Sulunteh's Move Makes Weah-Ellen
Run-Off Tough to Predict - 10/31/2005 6:04:22 AM

Rodney D. Sieh

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The Political Divide

Party lines and party loyalties are no where to be
found these days. It's all about interests and "What
have you done for me lately." With less that a week
before voting commences in Liberia's much-anticipated
run-off between Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf and George Weah,
virtually all the major candidates, vice presidential
candidates and their partisans have broken ranks in
favor of one or the other.

Jeremiah Sulunteh, a native of Bong County and a
University professor at the Cuttington Universitiy
Professor pledged his support to the Unity Party
standard bearer on the heels of his standard bearer,
Winston Tubman's much-heralded endorsement of George
Manneh Oppong Weah, the Coalition for Democratic
Change standard bearer, many view as the front-runner.

Sulunteh told a gathering in Bong County over the
weekend that it is time for Liberia to be save from
the politics of "extremism" and said that the Unity
Party Standard Bearer as the candidate who possesses
"the ability and experience needed to move Liberia
forward."

Following a first round of voting, Weah's CDC tallied
a total of 275, 265 votes or 28.3 percent while his
closest rival and run-off nemesis, Sirleaf tallied
192,326 votes or 19.8 percent. The combined total of
Weah and Ellen votes stand at about 48 percent. Weah
and Ellen are in a heated, last minute stretch to
convince the other 52 percent of the Liberian
electorate. It appears clearly that both camps have
chosen the endorsement vehicle as a way to get to
those 52 percent undecided voters. So began the
twisting and turning of party leaders as to who to
support in the run off.

The last week has seen numerous partisans, party
loyalists and has-been political stalwarts share
support between Weah and Johnson-Sirleaf. Astute and
educated political veterans like Dr. H. Boiman
Fahnbulleh and a host of others have gone in the camp
of Sirleaf, while Tubman and Varney Sherman have
pledged loyalties to Weah.

"At this time of the nation’s need, the UP standard
bearer is the best candidate that can deliver the
needed goods for the Liberian people," say Fahnbulleh.

"To stay with my conscious, to identify the candidacy
who I feel can lead our country from this period of
crisis and decay, engage with the international
community that will help provide some of the basic
services for our struggling people; based on this, I
decided to throw my support in the run-off behind
Madam Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf," says Fahnbulleh, who was
also Alliance for Peace and Democracy (APD) campaign
manager.

Fahnbulleh says electing Mr. Weah to the presidency of
this country would mean disaster. "It will be a
disaster for this country, I say emphatically. I said
it with the Taylor presidency; I said it when I left
Samuel Doe; we asked him to go back to school to hold
elections in 1983, but there were people who were
around him and he said. But he saw how he ended it
all," the political science professor recounted.

APD Vice Standard Bearer Marcus Dahn has also jumped
right in the middle of the Johnson-Sirleaf train.
Danhn has unequivocally declared his support for UP
Johnson-Sirleaf. Danh, we have learned, has traveled
to Nimba County, his home county to campaign for UP.
APD Standard Bearer Togba Nat Tipoteh is not sitting
quiet either. He has thrown his hat in the opposition
direction of his party comrade by endorsing George
Mannah Weah, who he claimed to be his nephew.

The Sirleaf campaign has also won endorsements from
previous associates of Charles Taylor. Just last week
two founding members of the former ruling National
Patriotic Party (NPP), Reginald C. Goodridge and Cyril
Allen, formally declared their support for her
candidacy.

"She has an extensive program to incorporate the over
100,000 ex-combatants who have suffered for this
country; she has organized a program through the UN,
the international community and her government that
would ensure that the lives of the ex-combatants are
well protected and educational facilities and the
economy is expanded so that they can participated
fully," says Allen.

Allen further said that Johnson-Sirleaf has the
capacity to control the national economy and get rid
of corruption that I have spoken about a long time."

Goodridge, for his part thinks that it is clear that
Liberia is at a very critical crossroads, so whatever
direction this country turns towards at this very
critical time will determine the future of this
country for good or bad for the next half a century.
In his mind, Johnson-Sirleaf is, therefore, the
candidate that would steer the country in the right
direction.

"We have all been participants to the very
electrifying electoral process. Where we have reached,
it is no more a situation of partisanship. All party
affiliation and partisanship has to be erased," he
says.

Weah's campaign can boast of having both Varney
Sherman of the Coalition for the Transformation of
Liberia (COTOL)and Tubman of the NDPL. Mathematically,
Tubman's 9.2 percent and Sherman's 7.8 percent showing
in the first round may be enough to put Weah in a 45.3
percent range and within striking distance to
accumulate the 51 percent majority required by the
constitution to claim victory. However, Tubman's 9.2
percent may not have been possible had it not been for
the cult-status of Sulunteh in his native Bong County.


Sherman and six other smaller political parties'
pledged support to CDC’s George Weah in the run-off,
was eclipsed by news that the youth wing of COTOL was
not in favor of the endorsement at all. The People’s
Democratic Party of Liberia (PDPL), one of the
founding constituent political parties of the
Coalition for the Transformation of Liberia, in a
release said, "It is unthinkable to hear that Cllr.
Varney Sherman has reduced himself so low to allegedly
pledge COTOL’s support to Mr. George Weah and the
Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) in ensuing
run-off elections.

Others like Bishop Alfred Reeves of the National
Reformation Party has also taken an about-face
approach to the Weah campaign by denying that they had
endorsed Weah's candidacy. Reeves vice presidential
candidate, Martin Sheriff on had previously declared
his support for the Congress for Democratic Change.
Mr. Sheriff and others argued the CDC headed by
Ambassador George Weah would unify the country. Reeves
says he would remain neutral.

Also denying that they have pledged support to CDC’s
George Weah, are the United Democratic Alliance (UDA)
of John Sembe Morlu. Morlue, FrontPageAfrica has
gathered has been having back and forth meetings wtih
both Weah and Ellen over the last few days but is
apparently at loggerhead with his party over making an
endorsement. "UDA is split right in the middle, with
those apparently seeking jobs wanting to join CDC
while those who want to take a principle stand urging
to join UP. But in the final analysis, it is Mr. Morlu
who must make the ultimate decision because it is he
that has the votes and he financed the enire UDA,"
argued UDA partisan Victor Momoh.

Weah's camp had earlier claimed Morlu in their corner
but a UDA news release issued last Tuesday said it has
not endorsed Weah's bid. It said its standard bearer,
Mr. John Sembe Morlu and the Executive Committee of
the Alliance are holding discussions with political
parties and is yet to endorse any party or standard
bearer. "Morlu is expected to make a decision today
and we will head on to Lofa to begin a week long
campaigning for the candidate he chooses," Momoh
concluded.

The Last Hours, The Final Count

The National Elections Commissions have printed the
ballots for the run off. There are approximately 1.3
million registered voters in Liberia. During the first
round about 75 percent of those registered cast a
ballot for 22 presidential candidates. On November 8,
2005, there are only two choices: George Mannah Weah
of CDC and Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf of UP. As stated in
the preceding analysis, 52 percent of those who cast
vote on October 11 voted for someone other than those
two candidates.

In the Liberian sense, those 52 percent are the
independent, swing voters in this election. The big
questions lurking in the minds of political operatives
are that how will these people vote? Are they going to
follow their party leadership, who is now split
between Weah and Johnson-Sirleaf? Or are they going to
follow personalities such as party standard bearers?
Better yet, since some of them voted on tribal lines
as in the case of Joseph Korto, Alhaji Kromah, and
Charles Brumskine, what other political considerations
will these tribal people make since their tribes men
are now out of the running?

Undoubtedly, as Liberians are now in the final hours
to select a President and a Vice President, the
political calculus remains rather confusing and hard
to lock down. Even astute political observers are, at
best cautious as to the eventual outcome. Insiders in
both UP and CDC are also cautious, albeit hopeful. In
the end, one thing is certain. The final count will
decide who becomes the 23rd President of Africa's
oldest republic—The Republic of Liberia. But how each
candidate get to that 50 plus one percent will depend
on the combination of various, not easily assemble
factors.  The endorsement game is just one factor. It
is not determinative.

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