January 9, 2004
NUTRITION NEWS FOCUS
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Today's Topic: Heart Disease Risk Factors

Your risk for heart disease can be estimated from a formula developed
more than 30 years ago based on the health experiences of several
thousand adults in the town of Framingham, Massachusetts.  Studies on
those folks began more than 50 years ago and have formed the basis for
many recommendations on diet and other risks for heart disease.

A new study of more than 7,700 British men finds that the Framingham
formula overestimates the risk of heart disease by 47 to 57 percent.
The factors used in the formula are systolic blood pressure, smoking,
serum total/high density cholesterol ratio, diabetes, and enlargement
of the heart.  The study was published in the November 29, 2003
edition of the British Medical Journal.
< http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/abstract/327/7426/1267 >

HERE'S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: An accompanying editorial
pointed out that formulas like this need to updated regularly if rates
of disease change over time.  Part of the problem is that only a few
of many risk factors go into this formula and only those in the
formula, by definition, account for all the risk.  Overestimating risk
can have adverse effects on medical recommendations, appropriation of
health care money by governments, and your cost for life and health
insurance.