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The perils of Liberian peacekeeping
Residents of Liberia's war-torn capital, Monrovia, are desperate for
international peacekeepers to stop the fighting and provide security for
the hard-pressed aid workers.
When an advance party of just 10 West African military experts drove
through the city, hundreds of people lined the streets to cheer them.
So if the promised 3,250 West African peacekeepers do start arriving
from Monday then the welcome will be a warm one.
When the fighting reached Monrovia in June, Liberians first looked to
the United States, which has long historical ties to Liberia and then
regional powerhouse Nigeria for salvation.
But they are both smarting from their previous experiences of
peacekeeping.
"For [Nigeria], it's a question of logistics and then money. For the
Americans, I think they are seeing it like a new Mogadishu," says Henri
Boshoff, a military analyst at the Institute for Security Studies in
Pretoria, South Africa.
It's a costly mistake to send just two battalions to Monrovia. You'll be
putting the lives of those troops in danger
Victor Malu - Nigerian general
The last time the US intervened in an African civil war, 10 years ago,
it resulted in humiliation with television viewers around the world
seeing dead American troops being dragged through the streets of the
Somali capital.
After much debate and reports of a rift between the wary Pentagon and
the more interventionist State Department, President George W Bush
ordered three warships to head for the Liberian coast but not to send
any troops onto land until a ceasefire was in place.
Nigeria's President Olusegun Obasanjo is unimpressed.
"If your house is on fire and somebody says: 'Here I am - I have my fire
engine - Now when you put your fire out on your house, I will come in.'
I wonder what sort of help that is, with all due respect," he told the
BBC.
And Monrovia's residents, cowering as shells fall around them, showed
their sense of betrayal and frustration by piling up the bodies of some
of those killed outside the US embassy.
Hard currency
The West African regional body Ecowas first promised to send Nigerian
peacekeepers to war-torn Liberia on 4 July.
But their deployment, which should begin next week, has been delayed by
almost a month, during which hundreds of people have been killed by
shells and stray bullets.
There are good reasons for the delay.
During the 1980s and 90s, Nigeria led the West African Ecomog
peacekeeping force in Liberia and neighbouring Sierra Leone.
"We spent well over $12bn, when we were in Liberia and Sierra Leone for
well over 12 years.
"The world did not acknowledge that, not even in terms of giving us debt
relief for the contribution we made," Mr Obasanjo said.
The huge cost in both financial and human terms - hundreds of
peacekeepers were killed - meant the intervention became unpopular with
the Nigerian public, just as in the US.
However, Ecomog did prevent then warlord Charles Taylor from seizing
Monrovia, ending the war through negotiation and elections instead.
In a remarkable historical twist, Mr Taylor is now hoping that a West
African force will do exactly the same to his opponents.
The US has now tabled a draft resolution to seek United Nations backing
for the Nigerian peacekeepers.
This could make all the difference, as the UN would foot at least part
of the bill.
And the soldiers would have the extra motivation of being paid in hard
currency.
'Enforcement'
But Liberia's problems are still a long way from being solved.
For the moment, Ecowas is planning to send some 1,500 Nigerians to
Liberia as a first wave, but military analysts say this will not be
enough to separate the warring factions.
"The only way to stop this now is enforcement," Mr Boshoff told the
BBC's Network Africa.
He estimates that at least 3,000 well equipped and well trained soldiers
are needed in Monrovia alone - this will not happen according to the
Ecowas plan for at least three weeks.
"It doesn't help you to put in troops that are not competent, that are
not robust," he said.
In 2000, hundreds of Zambian troops serving as UN peacekeepers were
captured by rebels in neighbouring Sierra Leone, whose civil war has
been intertwined with that in Liberia.
The former head of Ecomog, Nigeria's retired General Victor Malu, says
that it will take some 5,000 troops to secure Monrovia and 12,000 for
the whole country.
"It's a costly mistake to send just two battalions to Monrovia. You'll
be putting the lives of those troops in danger," he told the BBC's Focus
on Africa programmes.
When the peacekeepers start arriving, things will begin looking up for
Monrovia's residents - who have endured a torrid time during the battle
for the capital.
But ensuring peace in the weeks and months to come promises to be a
complex and costly affair.
Story from BBC NEWS:
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