Here's a forecast for what recorded music will be like in the next five
years. More audio on the PC and fewer people buying little pieces of
plastic for $18. Jim DeRogatis and his Sound Opinions talk show, the
world's only rock and Roll talk program, can be heard online Tuesdays at
10:00 p.m. Chicago time at WXRT.com. Just click listen on the page or just
go to:
http://www.93xrt.com/program/listen_in/index_popped.html?i=1#
The AOL Media Player is required, which can be downloaded free when
accessing for the first time. The volume control can't be accessed by a
screen reader but I understand AOL is aware of the program and is close to
offering some solutions.
Kelly
Chicago Sun-Times
March 28, 2004
Face the music
by JIM DEROGATIS
POP MUSIC CRITIC
The music industry stands at an historic crossroads -- almost every
aspect of the way people consume and listen to popular music is changing,
dwarfing even the seismic shift in the 1880s when music lovers turned from
sheet music and player pianos to wax cylinders and later, in 1915,
newfangled 78 rpm phonograph discs.
The one thing all of the experts agree upon is that these changes --
which are already under way -- will be dramatic, quick and inevitable. But
no one knows exactly where they will lead.
Compact discs, the dominant form of recorded music today, may be
extinct within the next few years -- or they may continue to appeal to some
percentage (know one knows the exact number) of (probably older) music
buyers, while young listeners turn exclusively to downloaded music files.
Concerts as we know them may become much rarer -- or they may
experience a revival on a smaller level, up to mid-size theaters, so long
as promoters offer great sounds at a good value.
Mom-and-pop record stores may disappear, as a consequence of
downloading music and shopping online -- or they may become ever-more
specialized and valued centers of the music scene.
Similarly, the audience for AM and FM radio may dwindle, thanks to
competition from satellite and Internet broadcasting -- or it may survive,
if programmers continue to view their stations as a center for communities
and not just pre-programmed jukeboxes.
To get some picture of what the future might hold, the Sun-Times turned
to 20 of the top people in the Chicago music industry -- including concert
promoters, retailers and radio programmers -- and asked all of them the
same question: Look into your crystal ball and tell us what you think the
music industry will look like five years from now.
Their answers are illuminating, and they offer as clear a picture of
the future of music as anyone today can accurately predict.
Ken Wagner Internet music consultant
Waagner, who works with artists such as Wilco and Lucinda Williams,
coordinating their presence on the Web, believes that CDs will still be a
part of the music world in five years, but the shift toward the Internet is
irreversible.
"It's a generational thing," he said. "Over the age of 25, people will
continue to have an attachment to CDs. Under 25, they may never buy a CD,
ever. I see an iPod being in every kid's life, or a Windows media player
being in everyone's hand.
"From a record company standpoint, it behooves them not to have
physical goods: There are breakage and shipping costs and manufacturing
costs, and selling files online is easier, cheaper and has higher profit
margins. What I really see is that more and more you will see artists being
less dependent on the record company as a whole."
Tera Siwicki National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences
Siwicki recently became the executive vice president of the Chicago
chapter of the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences -- the folks
who hand out the Grammys, as well as campaigners for artist's rights. She
is optimistic that changes in technology will bring a new emphasis to the
music side of the music business.
"As things get more electronic, the industry is going to have to come
up with much more creative ways to market a product besides cover art and
liner notes," she said. "And maybe the image of the artist won't be as
important as the music itself. If a song is floating around on iTunes,
you're not necessarily looking at the person, you're looking for music. If
there isn't a focus on the image, then maybe people will focus on the
craft."
Bettina Richards Thrill Jockey Records
As the founder and owner of Thrill Jockey, one of the most respected
U.S. independent labels (and home to Tortoise, Eleventh Dream Day and many
other underground favorites), Richards sees digital downloading as only a
small part of her own label's future -- perhaps 20 percent of the business
in the next few years.
"Most of our artists, who maybe two or three years ago were opposed to
their music being distributed in that manner, have changed their minds,"
Richards said. "It's not their preferred format, but they'd rather that
kids pay for it than get it for free. But for those who still prefer to buy
the hard copy, we are really trying to make our CDs have something extra
that you cannot get from a download -- extensive information in a booklet,
a CD-ROM or DVD component, coupons for contests -- an extra reward."
Jim Powers Minty Fresh Records
A former major-label executive who founded his own record company (and
brought us Veruca Salt and the Cardigans, among others), Powers disagrees
with Richards -- he's convinced that CDs will be almost extinct within the
next five years.
"It's going to be a plastic-free future," he said. "In the same way as
you still have vinyl aficionados, some people will still buy CDs, but it
won't be the core source of income in the music industry. It's rocketing
forward at a much faster pace than I think anyone realizes; I'm certain
that 90 percent of the music Minty Fresh sells will be via downloading."
Rob Miller Bloodshot Records
The co-owner of Bloodshot, another of Chicago's best-known independent
labels, Miller is pessimistic about the plight of indie labels like his
own, largely because of the challenges that face small retailers.
"The bloodletting at the independent retail level is just amazing," he
said. "And I think this bloodbath will make a lot of artists who are making
a marginal living off their music, selling 3,000 to 5,000 records, just get
frustrated and break up. There is just too much damn music out there, and I
think there is going to be a bit of a contraction in the next few years."
Mike Felten Record Emporium
As the model for selling music online evolves, Felten hopes that small
retail operations such as his store in the Lake View neighborhood will be
able to grab some portion of the downloading business. But he also sees
mom-and-pop record stores as centers for the musical community as much as
businesses.
"I've likened going out and buying music to going out and buying a
beer," he said. "You can buy a six-pack of Busch and go home for a lot
cheaper than going to a bar and getting a microbrew for six bucks, but you
don't have that social interaction. We have to make record stores more
destination-oriented. That's why we're doing more in-store performances;
people just don't want to sit home in front of their computer for the rest
of their lives."
John Laurie Planet of Sound
The owner of Laurie's Planet of Sound record store in Lincoln Square
believes the electronic fad will eventually pass. "I think there's going to
be a lot of broken MP3 players," he said, laughing. And he's confident that
he will still be in business in five years.
"I'm really not kidding myself, because when we first opened, people
told me I was insane to do it, and that was eight or nine years ago,"
Laurie said. "No doubt online sales are a part of the business now, but
they're not everything. I just know the problem with downloading MP3s, and
the sound quality is still so poor.
"I don't believe there will be fewer mom-and-pop stores in the future
-- it doesn't seem to go away, and I haven't been proven wrong yet. People
like coming in here."
Paul Harrington George's Music Room
The manager of the South Side's biggest independent record store is
also optimistic about the future of record retailers.
"I think the bottom line is, five years down the line, it's going to
come full circle: People are going to want to come out and go to the record
shop," he said. "Downloading music is so impersonal. Look at a barbershop:
Even if they had a way to do your hair differently, at home, people would
miss the conversations in the barbershop, and sooner or later, it would
have to come full circle.
"Where I work, people just crowd in here to talk about new music --
who's coming out with what, did you hear what 50 Cent said about Ja Rule,
you know what I am saying? And even though you can get that information off
of the Internet, people still love talking to other people."
Scott Gelman Clear Channel Entertainment
Gelman, the local vice president of booking for concert giant Clear
Channel Entertainment, believes that live music promoters need to "rekindle
or reinvent the passion" for concertgoers to survive.
"I'm talking to my 13-year-old nephew and my 10-year-old son, trying to
figure out what motivates them," he said. "They have so many alternatives
today -- 150 TV stations, 300 different video games -- that they are doing
things totally differently from what we did."
To draw new music lovers, Gelman believes that the industry has to
explore extra incentives such as offering live CDs of concerts on site --
and it has to lower ticket prices. "We have to get the ticket prices on the
lawn down to 12 or 15 bucks; second, we have to create a party atmosphere,
and third, we have to make these bands accessible to all different age
groups, not just the adults who can afford 50 bucks a ticket."
Andy Cirzan Jam Productions
Cirzan, a senior talent buyer for Clear Channel rivals Jam Productions,
believes that nothing will ever replace the live concert experience.
"The one thing I can say is there has not been a reasonable alternative
for how people can enjoy live experience," he said. "When Webcasting first
came up, people were saying, 'Here we go, we're just going to watch
concerts on TV.' It never happened, and anyone who's watched a Webcast can
tell you, it is just a grueling experience. So we're lucky in the live end
of the music industry that there's been nothing coming along that can
replace that experience."
"But I do see a complete and utter reinvention in the major-label
system. The amount of money invested in an artist is going to go down
dramatically. The amount of staff involved in working projects is going to
go down dramatically. The methods used and the moneys invested in promoting
product is going to go down dramatically. Everything's got to go down, and
the business has to completely reinvent itself."
Angie Mead Gunther Murphys, Abbey Pub
As a talent booker for two of Chicago's best rock clubs, Mead is
cautiously optimistic about the future of smaller venues for live music.
"The city makes it really hard to obtain the right permits and
everything, but I hope that we are still going to be here," she said.
"There are so many bands out there that aren't big enough to play
2,000-seat rooms, but there are enough bands out there that can play rooms
our size. We definitely see ourselves as staying in the community and being
a big part of Chicago. People like going out and hearing music. It's one
thing sitting at your computer downloading MP3s, but you need to go out and
see a band live and support them live."
Joe Shanahan Metro, Double Door
The owner of longtime North Side music venue Metro and co-owner of
Wicker Park's Double Door nightclub believes that small and mid-sized
venues need to get smarter -- and fast -- about offering concertgoers more
than just the entertainment onstage.
"We have to convince people that the live experience offers something
to get them out from behind their computers and TV screens, and that going
to that show is something special," Shanahan said. He is enthusiastic about
programs such as the new "See a Show, Buy a Show" feature at Metro and
Double Door (as well as at Schubas), where the venue, in partnership with a
company called eMusic.com and participating artists, can offer concertgoers
the chance to buy a CD of the show they just saw on their way out the door.
Bruce Finkelman The Empty Bottle
The owner of Chicago's prestigious Empty Bottle rock club also believes
CDs will soon be extinct. "Everything will be done online," he said. "And
sooner or later, bands may even stop putting out recorded stuff."
In the live music world, Finkelman sees trouble for small clubs. "I
think it may soon be all government-funded clubs and venues, like in
Europe," he said. "The small entrepreneur will be done. I hope I'll still
be in business in five years, but ask the city [referring to restrictive
licensing procedures] if they think I'll be in business. I mean, what I
think and what it is looking like are two very different things. I think
[the city] will lower the amount of places that will be allowed to have
live music."
Michael Yerke House of Blues
The head talent buyer for Chicago's House of Blues maintains that the
live music scene is stronger today than ever. "We don't do arena shows, and
there is a lot more risk at the arena level, but at our level, it's
thriving," Yerke said.
"People are spending more and more time with video games and on the
Internet, but you can't match that concert experience unless you are there.
There is no way to duplicate being at a live show. No matter what you have
on your computer or DVD, it's not the same, so I am optimistic about live
music up to the theater [size] level."
Todd Cavanah B96
Cavanah, the program director of WBBM-FM (96.3), is another believer in
the inevitability of the CD's extinction.
"I predict that in five years, the majority of music buyers will
receive their purchases digitally," he said. "As a matter of fact, at B-96,
we already receive most of the songs we play in MP3 form. CDs are an
afterthought these days; it's much easier and more practical to listen to
an MP3 that we receive from an artist or management company and send it to
the studio to air."
Shawn Campbell WLUW-FM
The program director for the lauded community radio station WLUW-FM
(88.7) is optimistic that CDs won't disappear entirely. "I think it is
going to take a generation," Campbell said. "I don't think that five years
down the road, people who are accustomed to buying music in traditional
forms and have done so their entire adult life -- people my age, in their
30s and above -- I'm not sure they are going to make that transition
[exclusively to digital]. I do think, unfortunately, a lot of small,
independent record stores are going to continue to go under, and buying
music is definitely going online."
As for the radio scene, Campbell believes that stations like WLUW are
the future. "I think that we here on the left side of the dial [dominated
by nonprofit and college stations] will continue to grow, while commercial
radio shrinks. Once again, people are looking for more alternatives, more
things outside the mainstream. You hear complaints about mainstream radio
that it is the same thing over and over again -- it's pre-fab, not
authentic stuff. So I think that college radio, public radio and community
radio will thrive."
Bill Gamble The Zone
The program director of WZZN-FM (94.7) believes digital delivery will
be the future for all radio stations. "And there will be a point in the
not-too-distant future when you will be listening to a song on the radio in
your car, and you will have the ability to push a button, and someone like
Amazon and Yahoo will get it to your house the next day," he said.
"Eventually, though, it will be all digital: Everyone will be walking
around with 10,000 songs on their iPod."
In the radio world, Gamble thinks that the current crackdown on
corporate broadcasters will mean a shift to subscriber or satellite
broadcast for adult fare like Howard Stern, but that stations like the Zone
will live on.
"As far as the music side, I think radio's power will continue to be
there: It is still the credibility stamp and the shared cultural
experience," he said. "If you walk around with 10,000 songs on your iPod,
that is great, but then when you hear one of your songs on the radio, you
go, 'Oh, wait, I have good taste and other people like what I do!' The
majority of people like to know that they like what everybody else likes."
Norm Winer WXRT-FM
"Consumers will just walk into a room in their house and download
movies, songs, albums and entire artists' catalogs and add them immediately
to their personal digital libraries, all of which will fit into their
pocket," said the veteran program director at WXRT-FM (93.1). But he
believes there will still be a place for radio as we know it now in the
high-tech future.
"I don't think people will just be limited to radio for their listening
choices; there will be more specialized choices for every genre, for every
vintage of music. But good radio will survive in places where there is
respect for, and responsiveness to the audience, where there is a
relationship to the community, where there is sufficient talent and
relevance and artistry, so the station is providing a unique service. If it
is generic, I don't think people want it -- they can get that from
satellite. Localization is the main advantage of good radio."
Patty Martin The Drive
The program director of WDRV-FM (97.1) believes the FCC crackdown on
commercial radio will be a boon to satellite broadcasters. "Terrestrial
radio is going to have to adjust," she said. "But stations like ours have
nothing to worry about, and the attraction is still the localism. You can't
find [DJ] Bob Stroud, who you've been listening to and loving for years, on
satellite radio. And that is going to make DJs more important.
"Anyone can throw these records together, but you don't have the
particular personalities on satellite, or things like traffic and weather
-- just being in tune with what is going on locally is going to give us the
edge. I don't think terrestrial radio is ever going to go away, just like
local television stations aren't going to go away, and it faced the same
thing with cable."
Elroy Smith WGCI-FM
The music industry needs to reprioritize, insists the program director
of WGCI-FM (107.5). "I really would like to see the music industry get back
to pure music -- artists like Alicia Keys," Smith said. "And radio as we
know it will continue as long as it remembers to serve the community.
"We need to learn more than just radio. The corporate consolidation
will probably continue, and new kids are not coming into radio, but I think
it will continue to be strong. You have more competition, so your product
needs to be good -- there's more competition from satellite and the Net,
and anybody can play a 'Slow Jamz' by Kanye [West], so the personalities
make a difference in terms of branding a radio station. We have to stay out
there -- sponsoring concerts and being a part of the community -- because
if we're just a jukebox, you know we're going to die."
Pop music critic Jim DeRogatis co-hosts "Sound Opinions," the world's
only rock 'n' roll talk show, from 10 p.m. to midnight Tuesdays on WXRT-FM
(93.1). E-mail him at
[log in to unmask]
or visit him on the Web at
www.jimdero.com.
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