My Fellow Gambians,

Really, the whole world is in crisis, and is being polluted by leaders who
are in the main, inept, often very corrupt, selfish and/or unilateralist:
the actions of these leaders are plunging the world into unnecessary chaos.

It is impossible to turn on the TV or read a newspaper without being
bombarded with images of warfare, intolerance, overt racism and enormous
human suffering. Poverty, famine, global warming, economic recession as well
as armed conflict, are the realities for the world in 2001.

Faced with these crises, it is time for the sons and daughters of the world
who have clarity, who understand the dynamics and undercurrents of politics,
who are genuine in their desire to strive for a better world, who have
sincerity and integrity, to play a more significant, pro-active role in
building a decent future for us all.

Based on the way things are today, it is clear that if we leave things to
our present leaders, then we shall all be dragged down into the abyss.  We
therefore have to have the determination to find and support leaders who can
make a REAL difference.

All the negative "isms" (narrow nationalism, chauvinism, patrimonialism,
regionalism, sectionalism, tribalism, racism) are scourges of the present
day and manifestations of the failure of world leaders to serve the world’s
best interests. Our leaders for the most part, just cannot deliver the
goods!

Consequently, the era when people could claim their disinterest in politics
has to become a thing of the past if we really want a better future:  our
daily lives are so affected by the decisions – good or bad - taken on our
behalf by our leaders.  Politics should therefore concern all of us, if we
want an assured future. Each of us has to care about our political future
and take an active part to improve our prospects.

In order to live in a better quality world, we have to elect leaders who are
more capable of looking after our common interests. For instance, the
unilateralism (evident in so many important world issues) displayed so
tellingly by President Bush in the USA over recent weeks, is fraught with
danger and risks.  Only this weekend, the Conference on Racism being held in
South Africa, is being boycotted by the USA for fear that it will receive
disapprobation for its current and past role in Israel and Palestine.

Meanwhile in The Gambia, events of far-reaching political significance are
unfolding. Elections are fast approaching and these past few weeks have been
really tough for the Gambian Opposition parties.  Equally, they have also
been tough for the APRC even if they are pretending on the surface that all
is well with the party.

Primarily, Sedat Jobe was forced to "resign" because Yahya Jammeh decided to
"sacrifice" him after the decision to expel the Deputy British High
Commissioner, Joshi Bharat, from The Gambia had backfired. However, there is
also a secondary reason which I’ll address later.

It is true that Sedat Jobe was not in the Gambia when the decision to expel
Bharat was taken, but he was consulted from day one and he advised that
Bharat be expelled from the Gambia. Now when things backfired, naturally
Yahya Jammeh decided to "sacrifice" him to try and please the British (or
just to use him as a scapegoat). But Sedat Jobe would never have resigned
his post if he were not forced.

Contrary to what some people think, Sedat Jobe lacks principles or
integrity. In fact, Jammeh apparently wanted to sack him a long time ago,
after there were certain sexual misconduct allegations made against Sedat
Jobe while he was on a Gambian Government mission to Gabon.  The secondary
reason why Sedat had to leave is because Jammeh was also not happy with the
fact that Sedat has not been helping with the APRC campaign as Blaise Jagne
did during last elections.

Jammeh is panicked about the outcome of the forthcoming elections and he
expected a technocrat like Sedat to mastermind his victory come October
2001.

Now there are reports that Blaise Jagne, currently serving as Gambia’s
ambassador to the UN in New York, will be recalled to The Gambia to take
over the Foreign Minister role.  For those who do not know, it was Blaise
Jagne along with Dominic Mendy who masterminded the Jammeh/APRC election
campaigns and "victory" in 1996/97.

Therefore the fact that Baboucarr Blaise Jagne may well be brought back
gives us an idea of the worry and fright being felt by Yahya Jammeh and his
camp.  Jammeh, as desperate and anxious as he is today, needs the
re-assurances and the coordinating efforts of Mr "strategist" Blaise Jagne
in order to spearhead the 2001 presidential campaigning which Sedat Jobe has
failed to give him.

Interestingly, I spoke with a contact at the Commonwealth Secretariat in
London very recently.  He said, and I quote, "Ebrima, you Gambians should
stop under-estimating Yahya Jammeh politically.  He may not be a
well-educated man, but politically he is shrewd and he has been playing all
the right chords.  Look, in spite of Captain Ebou Jallow’s revelations, the
student massacre of April 10/11th, the non-payment of farmers etc – despite
all these things, Jammeh is still in power, is still manipulating, is still
getting exactly what he wants."

There can be no disagreement about this:  Jammeh is using every device in
the book to ensure his political future, and he is doing it along with all
the machinery of state to serve him and the APRC.

The Opposition must therefore be well prepared in order to be able to unseat
the travesty of a leader inflicted on The Gambia.

It is regrettable that events have unfolded as they have done recently
vis-à-vis the tactical Alliance of all the political opposition parties in
The Gambia.

For months, I and others contributing to Gambia-L, have been calling for the
formation of a tactical alliance to see the back of Jammeh.  In fact, in my
Twenty-fourth Message, I put forward a comprehensive package for an
opposition united to defeat Yahya.

If truth be told, the opposition in The Gambia has had the whole of last
year to work out an effective alliance, but sadly and disappointingly, they
did not set the ball rolling for this until Yahya Jammeh lifted Decree 89
this summer.

Jammeh knew exactly what he was doing. No wonder my contact at the
Commonwealth Secretariat in London insists that "Jammeh is politically
shrewd." If the opposition had formed (or attempted to form) an alliance at
the time people like me and others were calling for it, perhaps the currents
problems would not have arisen.

Yahya Jammeh must be rubbing his hands together in glee at recent
developments concerning the coalition of the UDP/PPP, and the
non-participation to date of the PDOIS, NCP and NRP parties in this
coalition.

Jammeh knew, as Abdoulaye Saine has pointed out, that the lifting of Decree
89 would put huge pressures on the opposition and would work to his
advantage.  It seems that he was quite right in his assumptions.

The PPP/UDP have merged or formed an alliance, and there are reports now
that in similar fashion, the NCP and NRP will merge together as well.  This
is not what we opponents of Jammeh have ever wanted or envisaged.
Technically, what we are seeing are mergers, not tactical alliances formed
for the explicit purpose of unseating Jammeh.  Jammeh understands full well
the adage that goes, "Divide and Rule!"

As for the GPP, they cannot say they are in the alliance if they do not
formally re-register their party as a political party. If Assan Musa Camara
fails to re-register the GPP, then it will be incorrect to say that the GPP
is part of the alliance. He can be called the alliance facilitator or
convener, but technically his party cannot be part of any alliance if it is
not re-registered.

If he fails to do so, then he will be like the rest of us:  interested in
change but not a significant part of it.  His role could be a crucial one
were he to re-register his party and join the coalition.

I therefore urge the GPP to re-register as a political party, even at this
late stage, although its leader Assan Musa Camara is constitutionally ruled
out for the Presidency, because of his age.  Assan Musa was the original
facilitator of the UDP/PPP merger/alliance:  if he does not register his GPP
party, then it cannot be claimed that the GPP is part of the UDP/PPP
grouping.  The danger will also be that people will perceive that the UDP
has merged with the PPP, rather than serving as an alliance of parties.

Some years ago, I was a Court Reporter in The Gambia, and I have seen
Ousainou Darboe at work first hand. I know him to be a man of great
intellect, integrity – firm, decisive, generous and honest. I know that no
pressure groups can use him for their own ends at the expense of the Gambian
masses.

However, there are genuine fears (about the UDP/PPP alliance) in the minds
of the electorate which Darboe needs to address, and the sooner the better.
Perception is a very important thing here:  some would go so far as to claim
that perception is reality.  We have to remember that Jammeh, all these
years, has used the national media to sell the idea that the UDP is merely a
front for the old PPP.

Now that there has been an alliance or a merger between these two parties,
many people perceive that the PPP is coming back: people are scared – they
do not want a return to yesteryear.  They want an end to Jammeh and new
beginnings for The Gambia: not a programme of restarts.


Furthermore, Jammeh has been very cleverly selling the notion that were the
PPP to return to power, then there will be enormous instability and threat
to peace in the country.

Just yesterday, I spoke with a former colleague in The Gambia, and he
expressed the widely held view that "despite my loathing of Yahya Jammeh, if
the likes of Yahya Ceesay and BLK Sanyang return, then God help The Gambia!"

Darboe’s immediate task therefore is to strive for balance:  he has to use
the wisdom and advice of some of these old PPP politicians, but without
giving too much away.  He has to face the issue of how to take our country
forward without the undue influence of the old PPP.

Again, the answer or the ideal thing to do of course, is to establish a
broad-based alliance of all the Opposition Parties.

All the impressions I am getting from The Gambia at the moment, are that it
is still not too late to form a much broader alliance:  the opposition
groups in The Gambia, as I understand it, have not yet shut the door on an
effective coalition.

However, time is short and there is an urgent need for them all to come
together again and to try to minimise their differences and to reach
consensus on a Presidential candidate.  There is therefore the need to
re-convene another meeting attended by all parties with a view to forming an
all party alliance.

There needs to be both flexibility of approach and a spirit of compromise:
the opposition leaders have to understand that the alliance would be a short
term measure to rescue the country from the long term disaster of Yahya
Jammeh.

Let us be in no doubt:  if we get it wrong this time, then we are facing
another 5 or 7 (or more, if he tampers again with the constitution) years of
Jammeh’s brutal and corrupt leadership, and all that this would entail for
our country.  God spare us that!

We have to be brave, resolute and forward thinking enough to put our
differences aside for the time being.  Let Assan Musa Camara (or whoever is
sincere) reconvene a forum for the formation of an ALL PARTY alliance.

Let ALL the opposition parties be there, and let them transparently and
democratically choose the best-suited candidate to stand in the Presidential
elections against tyrant Jammeh.  It is vital that we have one presidential
candidate of stature, who spans the range of opposition view and acts for
all.

At the same time as the leaders of the opposition parties and their aides
are meeting, let there be an ad-hoc committee comprising technocrats from
all the parties simultaneously working out the modalities of an alliance-led
government.

It is crucial that all opposition parties are seen to be interested in the
success of a tactical alliance. Compromise should be the catchword.  The
people do need direct evidence that all parties are interested in the
practicalities of an alliance, and not just in their own rhetoric. There
should be space and tolerance for divergence of views in an opposition
united against Jammeh.

If the Opposition gets it right, there is no way that Jammeh can possibly
win. Under the new Constitution, the winning presidential candidate needs to
have polled over 50% of the vote, and there is no way that Jammeh could come
anywhere close to this percentage if there is a solid alliance.

Jammeh himself understands this all too well, and he is doing everything in
his power to divide the Opposition in order to split the electorate’s votes
for the opposition.  Jammeh works on the principle that "united they stand,
divided they fall".

It is therefore imperative that the Opposition parties try and resolve their
differences, in the best interests of our nation and its people.

Again, do not get me wrong! Darboe is a good and able man:  he would be a
good Presidential candidate. However, people’s impressions of recent events
have been shaken and there is a scar left.  He now needs to address some of
these fears/concerns in a bid to allay their fears or to reassure them that
the UDP is not the PPP.

In any case, he (or the chosen candidate of an all-party alliance) will need
tact and diplomacy, as well as dogged determination to lead a united
opposition alliance to victory in the October polls.

It is do-able!  So let us bury our individual egos, and work together for
the sake of our dear country.  If we do not get it right this time round,
then we are facing a terrible future.  The Opposition really cannot afford
to fail.  History has confronted them with this difficult task:  a task of
finding a way of putting differences aside, and uniting in a spirit of
compromise and common purpose.

This is the urgent challenge facing opponents of Yahya Jammeh’s terrible
regime.  The consequences of failure will be unbearable.

My prayers are for my country, and for decent people to lead it forwards to
a better future for us all.


Ebrima Ceesay,
Birmingham, UK


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