I saw this in today's paper.  More opportunity is coming up in the years
ahead.

Kelly





The Chicago Tribune

April 13, 2003

Coming soon: Plenty of jobs

Despite today's grim talk of `jobless recovery,' experts say several
signs point to an upcoming shortage of talent in the workplace--and a
bright future
for job seekers.

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Chicago Tribune Shopping Channel

By Rebecca Theim
Special to the Tribune

April 13, 2003

Rising unemployment, a steady increase in the number of "discouraged
workers" and constant talk of a "jobless recovery" have disheartened even
the most
determined job seeker in the past two years.

But against today's depressing employment backdrop, economists and
demographers steadfastly predict that we're on the brink of a significant
labor shortage.
Experts contend the reversal of fortune will be driven by a convergence
of trends, including the steady retirement of Baby Boomers (with much
smaller generations
following them into the labor force), tighter immigration policies and an
economy that increasingly demands better-educated, more highly skilled
workers.

"When you're sitting there without a job . . . it's a difficult scenario
to believe," said Sylvester Schieber, chief economist and director of
research
for global human resource consulting firm Watson Wyatt. "But when you
look at the labor market's underlying numerics, the picture is relatively
clear:
if anything, we've got less surplus labor now than we did (in the early
1990s), which means the economy doesn't have to heat up nearly as much as
it did
then for us to be in a much tighter labor market."

In a recent report studying the U.S. labor force, The Aspen Institute, a
non-profit think tank, pointed out that while the native-born workforce
between
the ages of 25 and 54 grew 44 percent in the past two decades, that
demographic is projected to have zero growth between now and 2020. "With
the labor
force leveling off in the next 20 years, every worker will be needed,"
the report concludes.

And in a recent study, electronic recruiting analyst Interbiznet projects
that between now and 2010, for every new member added to the workforce
there will
be 2.6 new jobs created. The report projects steadily increasing labor
shortages across virtually every job function--from management to
maintenance.

The only thing experts can't seem to agree on is how quickly the boom
will arrive and how dramatic its arrival will be.

"It's not a matter of `if,' but absolutely a matter of `when,'" said Jeff
Taylor, chief executive officer of online job site Monster.com.

"Will the current economic downturn and uncertainty over terrorism and
Iraq mean the peak will happen later than some of the earlier
predictions? Maybe.
But you can't get away from the reality that the only difference between
now and the booms of the early 1980s and late 1990s is that we will have
much
smaller numbers of workers going forward."

Certain professions and industries already are feeling the pinch. The
growing shortage of health care professionals--particularly the already
well-publicized
dearth of nurses--will develop into a more serious problem as Baby
Boomers age and increase the demand for health care.

Of the 30 occupations projected to grow the fastest between 2000 and
2010, 17 are healthcare-related, according to the U.S. Department of
Labor. These include
imaging technicians, registered and practical nurses, technicians,
pharmacists and even medical billers and coders, according to a 2001
First Consulting
Group report done for several non-profit hospitals.

Belying the current battered state of the information technology sector,
the fastest-growing occupation in the next decade is projected to be
computer software
engineer. Another area of opportunity is government services because
roughly half of the U.S. government workforce is expected to retire in
the next five
to eight years, according to both Taylor and Schieber.

Opportunities will not be limited to white-collar occupations. The
country already is experiencing shortages in specific occupations,
including collision
mechanics, truck drivers, kitchen and bath designers and plumbers and
electricians, according to Roger Herman, a workforce consultant and
co-author of
"Impending Crisis: Too Many Jobs, Too Few People" (Oakhill Press, $30).
"Part of the difficulty is the mixing and matching of who's qualified to
do what,"
Herman said.

Workers who benefit from the trend will be those who are ready to change,
experts said. "Diversify and work on your skill set," advised Neil
Lebovits, president
of Ajilon, a New Jersey global consulting and specialty staffing company.
"Read. Don't be myopic. Stay inquisitive. Learn how to do other people's
jobs.
The people who are current, who bring a technical expertise with them,
are going to benefit the most."

Workers also should invest in education and training, even if their
employers won't foot the bill for it. "Studies show that people are
spending less money
on personal development and career training, and the exact opposite
should be happening," Labovits said.

Herman recommends that workers research areas where labor shortages are
projected to occur and carefully weigh how their interests and skills
mesh with
coming opportunities.

"People need to take more time to look at their own lives, their own
careers," he said. "Be more sensitive to where job opportunities will
happen, what
you want to do and what you should do to prepare yourself for those
jobs."

For their part, companies should be planning now to spend more on
recruitment, training and retention, experts said. And if human resources
does not have
an influential role within their organizations, its importance should be
elevated.

Employers and employees alike should focus exclusively on their specific
situations, said Gerry Ledford, a senior vice president and leader of the
employee
effectiveness practice for human capital consulting firm Sibson
Consulting.

"Leave macro-economic analysis to the economists and policy makers and
focus your attention on specific job skills and industry segments,"
Ledford said.
"Whether you're a worker or a company, you need to be an expert on where
the labor market is headed for your specific industry or profession and
what you're
going to do to deal with the changes ahead."

- - -

Demand for health care and technology expertise to surge

The government projects the growth for jobs in the health care and
computer field will be strong in the next several years.

FASTEST-GROWING OCCUPATIONS

Total number of jobs in 2000 and projected for 2010

 PERCENTAGE
 OCCUPATIONS 2000 2010 CHANGE
 Computer software engineers, applications 380,000 760,000 100%
 Computer support specialists 506,000 996,000 97%
 Computer software engineers, systems softwa 317,000 601,000 90%
 Network and computer systems administrators 229,000 416,000 82%
 Network systems and data communications ana 119,000 211,000 77%
 Desktop publishers 38,000 63,000 67%
 Database administrators 106,000 176,000 66%
 Personal and home care aides 414,000 672,000 62%
 Computer systems analysts 431,000 689,000 60%
 Medical assistants 329,000 516,000 57%
 Social and human service assistants 271,000 418,000 54%
 Physician assistants 58,000 89,000 53%
 Medical records and health information tech 136,000 202,000 49%
 Computer and information systems managers 313,000 463,000 48%
 Home health aides 615,000 907,000 47%
 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.


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