Russian leaders have made it very clear that they will not be conquered
ty US high tech conventional weapons, but will resort to Nukes if
necessary to protect their country.  This NATO EXAPNSION threatens
WWIII,  I and others havae made it very clear that we only participate
in even numbered world wars.
wcm>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: [log in to unmask] [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
> Sent: Thursday, February 10, 2000 10:22 PM
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: European Union
>
>
> STRATFOR.COM's Global Intelligence Update - 11 February 2000
>
>
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> STRATFOR.COM
> Global Intelligence Update
> 11 February 2000
>
> Diplomatic Blitzkrieg: The West Responds to Russia's Assertiveness
>
> Summary
>
> European Commission President Romano Prodi said Feb. 10 that the
> European Union (EU) would extend absolute security guarantees to
> all of its members. This statement in a single stroke redefines
> Russia and the West's struggle for the countries of Central Europe.
> No longer will Russia have the luxury of viewing EU expansion as a
> harmless process. Prodi essentially announced de facto NATO
> expansion under the guise of EU security guarantees.
>
> Analysis
>
> European Commission President Romano Prodi surprised his Latvian
> audience Feb. 10 by declaring that "any attack or aggression
> against an EU [European Union] member nation would be an attack or
> aggression against the whole EU, this is the highest guarantee." If
> implemented as stated, this marks a quantum shift in EU policies
> from the purely economic into the security realm - a change that
> Russia cannot afford to ignore. Now Russia will feel just as
> threatened by EU expansion as it has by NATO expansion. Prodi's
> announcement intensified the ever-escalating race to establish a
> new frontier between Russia and the West.
>
> At the Jan. 24-25 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Summit,
> [http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/giu2000/012100.ASP] Russia
> compelled its fellow CIS members to participate in tighter security
> measures [http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/c0001260125.htm]
> to combat terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism - Moscow's code
> names for Chechen militants.
>
> Until now, the West has responded to Russia's new assertiveness
> with piecemeal measures. First, there was a tug-of-war for
> Georgia's loyalties
> [http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/c0002030025.htm] over joint
> Russian-Georgian border patrols. Then, the United States directly
> challenged Russian interests in the Persian Gulf
> [http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/m0002040010.htm] by
> boarding a Russian tanker that was evading U.N. sanctions. Russia
> responded to these challenges by strengthening its ties with old
> Soviet client states
> [http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/giu2000/020800.ASP]
> such as Iraq, North Korea and Vietnam. Now, the West has seized the
> Russian gauntlet. High-level delegations are taking off to entice much
> of
> Central Europe to fully join the Western fold.
>
> Russia cannot help but take this diplomatic blitz seriously. Among
> the delegations are the European Commission president, NATO's
> secretary-general and NATO's supreme commander. Their target
> audiences include an array of states traditionally within the
> Russian sphere of influence: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania border
> Russia; and Christian Orthodox Romania and Moldova share religious
> ties. To underscore the completeness of the Western response, NATO
> even dispatched a delegation Feb. 9 to Russia's Caucasus neighbor,
> Georgia.
>
> But it is Prodi's statement that will truly shock Russia. The fact
> that the proclamation came from the European Commission's president
> - the highest non-rotating position within the EU superstructure -
> indicates that the intent to implement security guarantees is no
> mere trial balloon, but new EU policy.
>
> However, Prodi's promise of an explicit security guarantee cannot
> be supported by current EU capabilities. Even if the Eurocorps
> functions as Prodi envisions, it will have a scant 60,000 troops at
> its command. This is just barely enough to handle a Kosovo-style
> operation; it would do little to deter a large-scale attack from a
> hostile power. Even the defense establishments of Europe's larger
> countries would be hard-pressed to project sufficient power to
> Europe's eastern fringes in times of crisis.
>
> Only the United States could possibly provide the level of force
> that Prodi envisions. Prodi's wording itself sounds remarkably
> similar to NATO's Article V security guarantee: "that an armed
> attack against one or more of them shall be considered an attack
> against them all." This indicates that Prodi - the steamroller of
> EU reform [http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu2000/012800.asp] -
> is either bluffing his way through Central Europe or has plans to
> integrate NATO into the EU in order to produce a militarily
> credible Europe. Prodi's assurance of security to all EU members
> extends NATO guarantees to the countries that will be on the EU's
> new eastern border. Suddenly, Russia's perception of the EU becomes
> much less benign.
>
> What makes the announcement more dramatic is Prodi's choice of
> audiences - Latvia. Of all the former communist states, this small
> Baltic country has had the most venomous relations with its former
> master. Prodi's statement and the locale in which he made it
> indicate Prodi's willingness - even enthusiasm - to stare down
> Russia over issues of importance to Europe.
>
> Russia may have the advantage in the race for Caspian oil routes [
> http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/specialreports/special20.htm] and in
> the contest for Central Asia
> [http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/specialreports/special13.htm], but
> Prodi has firmly set his mind on the EU fully absorbing all of
> Eastern Europe - Baltics included. Now he has shown a unique
> willingness to use NATO to achieve that goal. It remains to be seen
> how the rest of the Union will respond to this sudden policy shift.
> Prodi will have his plate full convincing the EU's four neutral
> states to militarize under any common banner. Persuading France to
> allow the United States an even more prominent position in Europe
> will prove thorny as well.
>
> If the EU fully adopts Prodi's plans, it would conjure a nightmare
> scenario for Russia. A soft-power EU and hard-power NATO would
> become formal partners in Western expansion. Traditionally neutral
> countries such as Austria, Finland, Ireland and Sweden would be co-
> opted into a NATO-EU military structure. An economically powerful
> EU, backed by a militarily powerful NATO, would dig in along vast
> lengths of Russia's eastern border. Russia's acquiescence to EU
> expansion will rapidly come to an end, and what little is left of
> the Russia-West "friendship" may be completely gone.
>
>
> (c) 2000, WNI, Inc.
>
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