Copyright Change Could End Free Internet Radio

By MATTHEW FORDAHL, AP Technology Writer



SAN JOSE, Calif. (February 21, 2002 9:41 p.m. EST)

Internet  broadcasters are cautiously viewing with a proposed royalty
rate that
could make them pay fractions of a cent each time they play a song
online.

But the ultimate cost could be their businesses.

"Certainly, we would have to take a serious look at the business going
forward if this were to remain the rate," said John Jeffrey, executive
vice president of Web broadcaster Live365 Inc.

If approved by the librarian of Congress, the expense could lead to the
end of another free Internet service. Web radio would be dominated by
subscription services and stations operated by companies with deep
pockets, wealthy parents or multiple revenue streams, analysts say.

The proposed rate by the Copyright Arbitration Royalty Panel is .14 cents
per song streamed - about 10 times higher than a plan submitted by
Webcasters to base the rate on hourly usage or a percentage of revenue.

"What that means is that there is no real cost savings that accrues from
volume," said Aram Sinnreich, a senior analyst at Jupiter Media Metrix.
"It makes it much more difficult to create a business model that would
yield profitability over the long term."

Many standalone Internet radio stations hoped to generate revenue through
advertising. But, as with other dot-coms, the advertising market has
mostly disappeared.

Because the fees would be retroactive, existing companies that have
attracted users will be even harder hit, said Jonathan Potter, executive
director of the Digital Media Association.

"The question now becomes how do you pay for all the customers you
acquired at a royalty rate that is this high," he said. "Everybody was
figuring ... this was going to be an advertising-supported media."

If 1,000 people use their computers to listen to a song through a
standalone service, the Webcaster would have to pay $1.40.

Live365 Inc. streamed 6.5 million listening hours in January at a rate of
about 15 songs per hour, Jeffrey said. Under the proposal, it would owe
about $2 million a year plus retroactive fees since 1998.

MusicMatch, another online broadcaster, offers subscription and free
services. It has a separate license with the recording industry and would
not be immediately affected by the rates, but in the future it could be.

In that case, the free radio streaming would vanish, said Bob Ohlweiler,
MusicMatch's senior vice president of business development.

"It's definitely going to hurt the free radio industry in general," he
said. "If and when MusicMatch is affected by the rates, we certainly
couldn't afford to keep free radio up and running."

Companies that are able to attract subscribers through added services are
more likely to survive than the free services. But it won't be easy.

"(The fee) is within the realm of what we had projected and prepared
for," said Matt Graves, spokesman for Listen.com. "It makes it tough. It
makes it tough for everybody."

The proposal does finally resolve a long-standing issue in the Internet
radio business - how much it costs to operate.

"If we get through the initial devastation that may hit the small Webcast
industry ... at least there's clarity for investors and financial
planners to understand what their costs are going to be," Potter said.

The proposed rates also would create an extremely high barrier for
companies looking to enter the Internet radio business. Capital, once
readily available for dot-coms, has all but dried up.

"It's questionable whether any new series will be able to get off the
ground now," said P.J. McNealy, research director of Gartner G2.

The Recording Industry Association of America said it was pleased, though
the Copyright Arbitration Royalty Panel's recommendation was 35 percent
smaller than the industry's proposal.

The music and Internet industries will have 60 days to comment on the
recommendations.


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