Find this article at:
http://www.cnn.com/2001/TECH/ptech/12/25/pc.changes.idg/index.html


Analysis: 20 factors that will change PCs in 2002

By Daniel Tynan

(IDG) -- Hot economies cool down and Net empires collapse, but technology
continues to move at light speed. Digital tools are not only getting
smaller,
faster, and cheaper, they're also insinuating themselves into every corner
of life. And these days they're as likely to be found in your pocket as on
your
desk.

We've picked 20 trends and technologies that will have the greatest impact
on personal computing for business and home use. We polled trend watchers,
technologists,
industry experts, and our own editors to uncover the products that will
change how you work -- and possibly even how you live.

Not surprisingly, many of these innovations help bring the power of the
Internet to mobile devices. Others ensure that your PC's performance
continues to
scream along (leaving software even farther behind). And most of them will
hit the scene within the next two years.

Of course, the road to digital Nirvana is littered with the remains of
"can't-miss" products (Internet appliances, anyone?). So we've outlined
bumps in
the road that each technology will encounter. We've also scored each
technology on a scale of 1 to 10; the higher the number, the greater the
technology's
impact on users.

You'll be amazed by what's ahead. The future of high-tech has never looked
brighter.

400 gigs and a cloud of dust: AFC hard drives

What is it? Antiferromagnetically coupled media, a new way to coat hard
drives.
What's cool? By sprinkling disks with the element ruthenium -- impishly
termed "pixie dust" by IBM -- drive manufacturers can pack more data onto
each hard
drive platter. Today most drives fit about 20 gigabits per square inch; AFC
hard drives will ultimately fit five times as much -- which means a 400GB
drive
will soon cost about the same as today's 80GB models.
When's it coming? Pixie dust and other high-density storage technologies are
already here, but drives won't hit 400GB before 2003.
What's the catch? Like CPU speeds, today's hard drive capacities already
exceed most users' needs.
Impact meter: 8

PDAs move to another level: The 1-GHz palmtop

What is it? Palmtop processors that run at speeds from 250 MHz to 1 GHz.
What's cool? They'll need all that power to handle the high-speed cellular,
Bluetooth, and other wireless technologies soon to be standard on handhelds.
A business traveler might use the power to access a corporate database and
then update information stored there using a mini-spreadsheet. Consumers
might
use the horsepower to download MP3s and to play short videos. Combine these
high-speed chips with inexpensive mass storage, and pocket companions should
become powerful enough to handle natural-language speech input -- no more
fussing with handwriting recognition.
When's it coming? The first 250- to 400-MHz handhelds are expected in the
first half of 2002.
What's the catch? Don't expect a ton of battery life. You might want to wear
an oven mitt, too -- these chips generate a lot of heat.
Impact meter: 5

Scintillating screens: Organic-light-emitting diodes

What is it? A replacement for LCD screen technology.
What's cool? OLEDs rely on organic materials that emit light, so they
require no backlighting. That makes them cheaper to produce and less
power-hungry
than LCDs. They're a natural choice for portable devices when battery life
is a key concern. OLED screens are also thinner than LCDs, and the
technology
can be printed on flexible materials such as plastic. Imagine a computer
screen that rolls up and down like a window shade.
When's it coming? Two to three years for PDAs and cell phones; five to ten
for laptops and desktop displays.
What's the catch? It's early. Color fidelity can be a problem. Building
active-matrix OLED displays -- in which each pixel is controlled by two
transistors,
or twice as many as on a standard notebook LCD -- erodes some cost and power
advantages.
Impact meter: 5

The message is the medium: Next-generation instant messaging

What is it? A whole lot more than text.
What's cool? Instant messaging may have started as a toy for teenagers, but
it's poised to become the mass-communication tool for the 21st century.
Microsoft
has made IM a key component of Windows XP: Besides sending simple text
messages, with Windows Messenger you can exchange files, conduct audio or
video
conferences, and collaborate on documents over the Net. The big advantage
for business users? When you see that a colleague is online, you can set up
a
conference or work session instantly -- no more telephone or e-mail tag. AOL
is working with Sun and Lotus on standards that will allow their IM products
to communicate with each other. Others are exploring ways that IM can help
to drive e-commerce and deliver online music and games. (AOL Time Warner is
the parent company of CNN.com.)
When's it coming? Windows Messenger is here already, and its competitors are
sure to respond soon.
What's the catch? The AOL and Microsoft IM clients still can't communicate
with each other. And in the workplace, IM could replace Web surfing as the
goof-off
activity of choice.
Impact meter: 7

Tireless wireless: 802.11 networks

What is it? A high-speed wireless network protocol.
What's cool? In the office and at home, wireless networks will leave you
free to roam while connected to the Internet at full speed. With an 802.11b
home
network, consumers can surf the Net, download files, and print documents
from their laptop or handheld -- no wires required. Companies like Wayport
and
MobileStar are installing 802.11b in hotels, airports, and cafes across the
country. Meanwhile, corporate users will enjoy an 802.11a standard that's
five
times faster at 54 mbps.
When's it coming? Wireless 802.11b and 802.11a networks are already here;
broad deployment will start in 2002.
What's the catch? Speed drops as you get farther from a LAN access point,
802.11a isn't backward-compatible with 802.11b, and wireless networks can be
less
secure.
Impact meter: 7

In search of a common language: Markup languages for everything

What is it? The lingua franca of the Internet.
What's cool? By surrounding data with simple text tags, an XML (Extensible
Markup Language) programmer can tell a computer to access corporate data no
matter
where it resides and then display it in a browser. Though the XML 1.0 spec
was finalized in 1998, huge companies like Fidelity Investments have only
begun
to convert all their data to XML, while scores of industry-specific dialects
have been developed for finance, medicine, and other sectors. Applications
written in XML will also let search engines distinguish between, say, the
name Price on a Web page and the price of an item on that page, leading to
faster,
more accurate searches.
When's it coming? Markup dialects are just starting to become commonplace.
What's the catch? Converting existing data to XML can be slow and expensive:
To permit search engines to work optimally, corporations must adopt a
consistent
approach to coding data in XML, covering such points as how to label data
fields (for example: last name, surname, or family name?).
Impact meter: 9

Getting a little hyper: Hyper-threading

What is it? A more efficient way to use processing power.
What's cool? That 2-GHz Pentium 4 chip might be a barn burner, but parts of
it are always sitting idle, waiting for your software to use them. Intel's
Hyper-Threading
technology will put those indolent circuits to use, allowing network servers
to handle up to 30 percent more users. Desktops may see a similar gain once
applications are written to take advantage of it, but the benefits would
likely be felt first by compulsive multitaskers who like to play games,
download
files, and print databases at the same time.
When's it coming? Later in 2002 for servers; in 2003 for desktops.
What's the catch? Windows XP and Linux support Hyper-Threading, but apps
tuned for it are years away.
Impact meter: 7

Good-bye PCI, hello Arapahoe: 3G input/output bus

What is it? A faster data pipe.
What's cool? Today's multigigahertz chips demand a constant stream of data,
and the aging PCI and AGP bus standards won't be fast enough at shuttling
data
between your PC's components. That's why Intel is developing a
third-generation input/output interconnect specification, code-named
Arapahoe, that's up
to ten times quicker than today's fast PCI-X bus. PCI-X moves data in
parallel along 64 wires, reaching a top speed of about 1GB per second.
Arapahoe can
employ from 1 to 32 lanes; each lane consists of a pair of wires and can
shuffle more than 200MB of data per second between the CPU and add-in cards
or
integrated parts. Arapahoe can also prioritize data, so that, for example,
real-time streaming data is processed faster.
When's it coming? Early 2004. What's the catch? PC makers will have to
support both standards as systems make the transition to Arapahoe, which may
increase
PC costs.
Impact meter: 9

Peers looking at you: Peer-to-peer networking

What is it? A way to create ad hoc networks within a corporation or across
the Net.
What's cool? Peer-to-peer networking is more than just a way to swap MP3s.
It will let businesses cache files, such as the latest virus definitions
from
Symantec or McAfee, on employees' hard drives. Files download more quickly
when cached locally, and using employee hard drives will save money on
server
storage while preserving precious bandwidth. Tools like Groove employ file
sharing, instant messaging, voice transmission, and more to help far-away
colleagues
collaborate on projects. Collaborative search software like OpenCola Folders
will let consumers stream content recommended by users who share their
interests
-- a faster, smarter way to roam the Web.
When's it coming? Apps are here now, but it will be a few years before
peer-to-peer networking is broadly adopted.
What's the catch? Network administrators who hate decentralization see
peer-to-peer apps as sources of security and administration headaches.
Impact meter: 5

The see-through PC: TFT computers

What is it? Computers that can fit on a pane of glass.
What's cool? Portable computers not much larger than their displays --
namely, much smaller handhelds, tablet PCs, and notebooks. Manufacturers
have been
attaching low-speed circuits to glass for years -- that's the basis of every
thin-film transistor notebook screen. But LCD makers have been unable to put
high-speed chips onto devices without heating the glass past its melting
point. Now engineers at Fujitsu have found a way to affix microprocessors
and
fast circuits to LCDs at lower temperatures.
When's it coming? Fujitsu expects to ship integrated processors and memory
on glass by 2003.
What's the catch? At press time, Fujitsu had yet to create glass sheets
large enough to sell to manufacturers.
Impact meter: 6

Data magnet: Magnetic RAM

What is it? Fast memory that retains data even after you've turned the power
off.
What's cool? MRAM uses magnetic charges instead of electricity to store
bits; when you turn off your machine, your data remains in memory. You'll be
able
to power down at the end of the day and then pick up the next morning
exactly where you left off -- giving your system "instant-on" capability.
Unlike
traditional memory chips, MRAM doesn't require a constant flow of
electricity to retain data. That means big power savings for portable
devices. It's also
faster and sturdier than flash memory.
When's it coming? MRAM will start to appear in 2004.
What's the catch? It needs to be cheaper and offer more storage capacity
than DRAM -- and it ain't there yet.
Impact meter: 8

Present and accounted for: Presence technology

What is it? A way to find people on the Net.
What's cool? Call it the end of phone tag. Presence technology will let you
know when your friends are logged on and what Internet device each is near
--
a PC, a PDA, or a even cell phone. Some presence apps will figure out which
device you're using and then choose the best medium for the message: video
if you're at your PC, text if you have your Palm, audio if you're in your
car. The GPS technology built into some mobile devices may let you pinpoint
a
person's location within 30 feet.
When's it coming? Throughout the upcoming year.
What's the catch? Want to be left alone? You may have to pay for the
privilege, just as you do to block Caller ID or to keep your phone number
unlisted.
Impact meter: 7

It keeps going and going: Fuel cells

What is it? An endlessly renewable power source for portable devices.
What's cool? Imagine notebooks that work 20 hours at a stretch or cell
phones that never run out of juice. Both may be possible thanks to new
developments
in fuel cells. The Fraunhofer Institute in Germany has built prototype
handhelds that use solar panels to recharge a tiny hydrogen fuel cell. New
York-based
Medis Technologies says it has developed a fuel cell for cell phones and
laptops that uses ethanol and water -- a safer and cheaper alternative to
hydrogen.
Meanwhile, researchers at Motorola and Los Alamos National Labs are
developing a methanol fuel cell that's about the size of a postage stamp.
When's it coming? One to three years for initial products.
What's the catch? The first fuel cells could be pricey, and they run hot and
expel waste. You'll need to replace the fuel periodically, too.
Impact meter: 6

The world's biggest brain: Distributed computing

What is it? A way to share computing resources across a network.
What's cool? For the past few years, researchers have linked supercomputers
across the Net to collaborate on divining the origins of the cosmos or
predicting
the weather. Companies like IBM and Sun aim to bring that kind of computing
power to your desk. Soon, IT departments will be able to send
computationally
intensive problems to a grid of computers -- a relatively inexpensive
alternative to investing in new computers. Millions of consumers already use
distributed
apps like the SETI@Home screen saver.
When's it coming? Some apps are already here, but large-scale deployment is
several years away.
What's the catch? Building grid "server farms" could cost billions.
Impact meter: 3

Guided by voices: Voice portals

What is it? Voice-driven Web sites.
What's cool? Next time you call your bank or your travel agent, that
pleasant-sounding woman who answers the phone may be a Web server. Voice
portals running
high-end speech recognition and text-to-speech software will let you browse
the Web and check your e-mail by phone more easily, as well as get
information
from financial service centers, airlines, and directory assistance. Thanks
to advances such as AT&T's Natural Voices software, computer voices will
sound
much more like people. The software's "voice fonts" let application vendors
create different accents, languages, and moods, or even mimic celebrities.
When's it coming? Initial deployment has begun; widespread use is expected
in three to five years.
What's the catch? Speech recognition isn't 100 percent accurate, and
on-the-fly synthesis still sounds a bit robotic.
Impact meter: 6

May we see some ID, please: The electronic wallet

What is it? A single storehouse for personal and financial data.
What's cool? With all your information in one place, you'll be able to buy
anything on the Web with a single click, or check your schedule from any
Net-connected
device. But first you may have to show your Passport. Microsoft's scheme for
verifying user identities, Passport is central to the company's upcoming
.Net
My Services initiative, which will encompass e-mail, an address book, a
scheduler, a wallet, and other Net-based services. Although the concept of
online
IDs isn't new, the release of Windows XP may make them unavoidable. Want to
use XP's Messenger or Net telephony features, log on to Hotmail, or buy a
Microsoft
e-book? You'll have to sign up for Passport.
When's it coming? Passport's already here, and .Net My Services and
competing schemes are due later in 2002.
What's the catch? Do you really trust the Redmond Giant to safeguard your
information? Privacy watchdogs don't -- they've filed suit to alter key
provisions
of Microsoft's plan.
Impact meter: 8

Bandwidth on the run: The new cell-phone network

What is it? Mobile phones that will be able to access the Internet at
blistering speeds. What's cool? Significantly more bandwidth. The
third-generation
(so-called "3G") cellular network promises data rates from 384 kbps to 2
mbps -- more than 100 times the puny rate today's cellular networks employ.
The
speed increase should open the way for a host of applications for cell
phones and PDAs, from streaming audio and video to sophisticated real-time
data
manipulation.
When's it coming? Verizon and Sprint were slated to begin U.S. trials in
late 2001, but broad deployment is still three to five years away.
What's the catch? Warring cellular standards in Europe and the United States
could sow confusion and slow consumer acceptance. And the cell carriers have
yet to prove that they can make voice transmission -- let alone data
transmission -- as reliable as users want.
Impact meter: 6

To 10 GHz and beyond: Extreme ultraviolet lithography

What is it? A way to make processors that are up to 100 times faster than
today's chips.
What's cool? Even Moore's Law eventually gets trumped by the laws of
physics. In a few years, the current method of packing ever greater numbers
of transistors
onto a chip will hit a wall. But a technology called Extreme Ultraviolet
Lithography may break that barrier. Intel estimates that EUVL chips will
boast
400 million transistors -- about ten times more than the Pentium 4's 42
million.
When's it coming? In three to five years.
What's the catch? Software that's capable of taking advantage of all this
processing muscle is nowhere in sight.
Impact meter: 8
How it works: Chip makers create today's processors by focusing ultraviolet
light -- first through a mask (which acts like a photograph negative) and
then
through quartz lenses -- to carve circuits one-fourth the size of the mask
into a silicon wafer. Chip makers have made circuits smaller and faster by
using
light with progressively shorter wavelengths. But when light waves get too
short, they are absorbed by the lenses, as well as by the air. The solution?
In a vacuum, use specially constructed concave mirrors, instead of lenses,
to reflect and focus extreme ultraviolet light.
A high-energy laser is concentrated on a jet of xenon gas, creating plasma.
The xenon plasma emits a powerful glow of extreme ultraviolet light with a
wavelength of 13 nanometers -- one-thirtieth the wavelength of violet
visible
light.
A condenser gathers the light and directs it toward the mask, which contains
a stencil image of the circuit pattern on a mirror.
The image of the circuit pattern reflects off the mask mirror and then off a
series of four to six concave mirrors, which reduce and sharpen the image
and
then project it onto a silicon wafer coated with a light-sensitive material
(called a resist).
Wherever the light hits it, the resist hardens, shaping the circuit. A
chemical wash removes the unhardened resist material, exposing the silicon
beneath.

Digital cameras: Multiplicity of megapixels

What is it? Digital cameras that start to rival film cameras' output.
What's cool? Camera makers continue to increase resolutions, making for
sharper, more detailed digital photos. Meanwhile, companies like Sony and
Minolta
continue to increase the bit depth digital cameras use to capture color
values. That should help render more-subtle highlights and shadows. Once
it's ready,
you can expect OLED technology to make its way into camera viewfinders,
where power savings over standard LCDs will boost battery life.
When's it coming? Cameras that offer 5-megapixel resolution are here now,
and manufacturers are already increasing bit depth beyond 32 bits. Expect
prices
for 4- and 5-megapixel models to come down to more reasonable levels over
the next year.
What's the catch? Most people don't need more than 3.3 megapixels.
Resolutions may start to climb slowly as fewer people need the added detail
provided
by higher resolutions.
Impact meter: 5

A serial thriller: Serial ATA storage

What is it? A faster interface for disk drives.
What's cool? Speed, baby. The serial ATA interface is capable of
transferring up to 600MB of data per second -- six times the rate of the
current parallel
ATA interface. That should keep data flowing smoothly to your CPU for years
to come. Serial ATA can operate at lower voltages, which becomes necessary
as low-voltage microprocessors become standard. It also uses longer, thinner
cables that won't block airflow inside the system case, which lets systems
run cooler and allows PC makers to build more-compact desktops and
notebooks.
When's it coming? The first half of 2002.
What's the catch? It requires more motherboard electronics than parallel
devices do, increasing initial system costs.
Impact meter: 9

Your desktop PC specs in 2004

Your desktop PC in 2004: Two years from now, your desktop system will be
slimmer and trimmer. Flat-panel screens will replace bulky CRTs, and
rewritable-DVD
drives and fast graphics subsystems will turn your PC into a movie lover's
dream.

CPU and RAM: 4- to 5-GHz microprocessor with 512MB of DDR memory and a
600-MHz system bus

Hard disk: From 300GB to 400GB on a Serial ATA bus

Removable storage: Rewritable DVD and -- yes -- the unsinkable 1.44MB floppy

Internet connection: Cable or DSL broadband if you're lucky; 56-kbps modem
if not

Video: 3D graphics card with 128MB of video RAM

Display: 18- to 21-inch flat-panel LCD screen capable of 1600 by 1200
resolution

Ports: USB 2.0 and IEEE 1394

Input devices: Wireless (Bluetooth) mouse and keyboard

Operating system: Some version of Windows (you expected Linux, perhaps?)

Other: An 802.11b wireless network designed for users with more than one PC

Price: $1,500 to $2,000

Your notebook PC specs in 2004

Your notebook PC in 2004: By 2004 a notebook will be many users' only PC.
These mobile monsters will have the power to replace desktops, but will stay
slender
enough to tuck into a briefcase. Screens won't get much larger than 15
inches, though -- any bigger and you would lose portability -- and battery
life
will improve, but not as much as most users would like.

CPU and RAM: 2- to 3-GHz chip with 256MB of RAM

Hard disk: 60GB to 80GB with Serial ATA interface

Removable storage: Rewritable DVD; some form of CompactFlash card

Internet connection: Broadband access through wireless networks in your
office or the nearest Starbucks

Wireless technologies: 802.11 for connecting to a LAN; Bluetooth for
communicating with other devices

Display: 15-inch LCD; video headset accessory for truly mobile (and private)
work

Dimensions: 2 to 3 pounds and less than 1 inch thick

Battery: No fuel cells yet, but lithium ion units will be good for 5 to 10
hours of life per charge

Operating system: Windows

Price: $2,000 and up


VICUG-L is the Visually Impaired Computer User Group List.
To join or leave the list, send a message to
[log in to unmask]  In the body of the message, simply type
"subscribe vicug-l" or "unsubscribe vicug-l" without the quotations.
 VICUG-L is archived on the World Wide Web at
http://maelstrom.stjohns.edu/archives/vicug-l.html