Is Africa recovering? Jul 7th 2008 From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire The World Bank's latest report on the political state of Africa The World Bank's governance indicators may be imperfect but they are a useful tool for investors. Politicians, donors and businesspeople with African investments increasingly claim that conditions on the ground are improving: economic policies are improving, economies are growing faster, the region is more politically stable and governance is getting better. Some of these assertions are broadly or partially correct, but the World Bank's 2008 report on governance indicators-Governance Matters-suggests that, on governance at least, such optimism should be tempered, since African aggregate indicators worsened some 7.6% between 1996, when the governance indicators were first compiled, and 2000. There has been a modest improvement since then, but the total index is still 5% lower now than in 1996. Contrary to general perceptions, Africa scores best for political stability and the absence of violence followed by "voice and accountability" (the extent to which citizens are able to participate in selecting their government) and control of corruption. Its worst scores are for the rule of law, government effectiveness and regulatory quality. Over time there has been a marked improvement in the continent's political stability index (up 10%), while voice and accountability shows a 3.9% gain. But the regional figure for government effectiveness has deteriorated some 17%, as has regulatory quality and the control of corruption. Africa's performance as regards rule of law has barely changed since 1996. Liberia leads the gainers Country performances are very disparate. Most of those in the top ten have made handsome gains since 1996, although Benin and to a lesser extent Namibia, Tunisia and Lesotho have all lost ground. Similarly, governance has deteriorated, usually substantially, in most of the poorest-performing countries, although both the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Sudan have made some headway. On the whole, the richer the country in terms of natural resources, the worse its governance ranking. Of course there are exceptions, such as Botswana and Namibia (both in the African top five as far as governance is concerned), but most resource-rich countries are well down the table: the DRC, Sudan, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Congo (Brazzaville), Nigeria and Angola are all ranked between 34th and 46th in the World Bank's regional rankings. There is an important lesson here: the more resources a state has, the less its government is likely to take governance reforms seriously. This conclusion is also supported by the evidence showing that the greatest gains have been achieved by Liberia and Rwanda, resource-poor countries emerging from political crises. They have certainly outstripped states like Angola, a resource-rich country whose governance track record leaves much to be desired. Inadequate and/or wildly inaccurate information clearly complicates the process of making informed and intelligent investment decisions in Africa. The World Bank rightly warns of the potential dangers of efforts to convert such indicators into league tables, but it is being too modest-the benefits far exceed the risks. Businesspeople who monitor the governance indicators are likely to make better decisions. いいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいい To unsubscribe/subscribe or view archives of postings, go to the Gambia-L Web interface at: http://listserv.icors.org/archives/gambia-l.html To Search in the Gambia-L archives, go to: http://listserv.icors.org/SCRIPTS/WA-ICORS.EXE?S1=gambia-l To contact the List Management, please send an e-mail to: [log in to unmask] いいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいいい