FOROYAA – BURNING ISSUES ISSUE NUMBER 100/2003 December 29-31 2003 Editorial A New Gambia is Needed!! Ousman Sillah’s Murder Attempt It is still difficult to believe that a Gambian, born and bred in this country, would hide in the dark for hours to wait to put off the studio of a radio station like Radio One FM or a press house like that of the Independent, or try to shoot a lawyer in cold blood. One would have thought that people would learn from history. How many hands have been amputated in Sierra Leone to inspire fear? How many girls have been raped and how many bellies butchered just to impose one’s will on another. Today Sierra Leone, Liberia and Cote d’Ivoire are back to square one. Many of the warlords have died. Many heads of state have disappeared. Nations and people remain to try to patch up their shattered lives and shattered dreams. This is the price of a human being’s cruelty to another human being. When the attack on the Independent Newspaper occurred, we emphasized that it is not an act of bravery to hide in the dark to destroy the lives and properties of defenceless citizens. We emphasized that, any person who is forced to live in fear by violence will die a thousand times before his death as books of wisdom taught us. A human being who wants to live in freedom must never be afraid of his or her fellow human being. Those who engage in violence to be feared will only earn the contempt of the people. Once they are found they will bring shame to themselves and their children. What is clear is that those who operate green picks up without number plates have been identified with previous terrorism. Now we are told that on Friday 26th December 2003, between the hours of 12.30am to 1.30am, Mr. Ousman Sillah, a Lawyer to Baba Jobe was shot at his gate upon his return from a marriage ceremony. He was rushed to Ndemban clinic where operation was performed. He was flown to Dakar the same day for further operation. By Saturday morning it was conveyed that he went through two successful operations and is recovering. Who is responsible for the murder attempt? What could the person or his patron gain? Is it designed to silence the Lawyer? This would be absurd since Baba Jobe has more information than his lawyer. Is it to suppress the case? This would also be silly since it is the state, which has started the case and can stop it any time? Is it to destabilize the state? This would also be absurd since the collapse of the APRC would mean a loss to both the Baba and Jammeh camps? It is difficult for us to understand the motive of this senseless violence. We are anxiously waiting for the outcome of the investigations. We are closely monitoring the attitudes of all propagandists in this case to locate the source of this brutal and despicable act. Notwithstanding this we would relocate the minds of the readers to what we said since "Operation No Compromise" was declared and detention took place for more than 72 hours. In our view, the government has lost the capacity to govern without creating economic and political crisis. Consequently, the Gambian people should salvage the situation by engaging in a nationwide consultation with a view to convening a mass national conference involving civil society organisations, political, religious and traditional representatives and other opinion leaders. This mass national conference witnessed by tens of thousands of concerned Gambians can come up with a charter for Freedom and Democratic Governance. It can further appoint a committee of wisemen and women whose duty would be to sensitize the public, discuss with the government and others who wish to be an alternative to ensure that senseless violence, intimidation, impunity and devisive politics is put to rest and that an environment conducive to the establishment of a government based on the undiluted choice of the people is maintained. This is the way forward. The people must take their destiny into their own hands. They must ensure that all political leaders respect that desire to live in peace free from fear. National leaders could set the ball rolling! Gambia belongs to all of us; we must not allow a few to destroy it at our expense. The State of the Gambian Economy Analysis of 2004 Budget Foroyaa will suspend its independent analysis of the state of the Gambia Economy to focus on the speech delivered by the Secretary of State for Finance and Economic Affairs, Mr. Bala Gaye on the 19th December 2003. Many readers have requested for a comprehensive evaluation of the speech. Foroyaa has maintained all along that the Gambian economy was heading towards crisis despite the denial of the representatives of the government including the President. It is therefore important to focus on the assessment of the SoS regarding the state of the economy. First and foremost, we will give a brief summary to show the true state of the economy and then look at all aspects in greater detail. The Fundamentals of the Economy Each economy has internal and external factors, which determine its state of health. This has been summed up in the conditionalities established in order for Gambia to become qualified to be a member of the West African Monetary Zone. The SoS Finance indicated in his opening remarks that "the Gambian economy has witnessed a series of economic shocks both internal and external that have threatened to destabilize the economy and indeed, threatened to disrupt the social fabric of our society." One may now ask: What are these internal and external shocks? These are factors that are of concern to the members of the West African Monetary Zone. They can be summed up as follows: A government should be able to raise enough revenue to meet its expenditure requirements to provide public services. If a government fails to earn enough money to meet its requirements it must either receive aid known as grants or borrow money to meet its shortfalls or deficits. The West African Monetary Zone has established a standard to limit the shortfall or budget deficit. It calls for each government to ensure "sustainable fiscal position by reducing the ratio of budget deficit (excluding grants) to 4% of GDP or less throughout the period 2004 – 2005. In his budget speech the SoS indicated that the budget deficit for 2004 is 11.6% of GDP. The deficit for 2003 is estimated to be D540 Million. The deficit is to rise to D895 Million in 2004. Suffice it to say that the deficit falls far short of what is required by the members of the West African Monetary Zone. This is the first point. Let us move to the second point of financing deficits through borrowing. Government Borrowing to Finance Deficits We have mentioned that a government, which runs into budget deficit, must either receive grants or borrow to meet its revenue shortfalls. The West African Monetary Zone has established limits on the financing of deficits through borrowings. A healthy economy should enable a government to reduce its dependence on loans or debts to finance the budget. The West African Monetary Zone has established the limit of financing the deficit to be 10% of the previous year’s tax revenue. For example, in 2003 the tax revenue amounted to 1.5 Billion daslasis. The deficit to be financed by borrowing by the Central Bank should not be more than D150 Million. However, government borrowing to finance the deficit is increasing. The SoS indicated that the bulk of domestic debt is in treasury bills, which constitutes 82% of the domestic debt. The 895 Million dalasis deficit for 2004 is expected to be financed through borrowing. In fact interest payment on domestic debts will be 994 Million in 2004. Gambia is therefore falling short of the second requirement for qualification as a member of the West African Monetary Zone. On Inflation The third factor, which emphasises the state of an economy is the accessibility and affordability of goods. The West African Monetary Zone imposed a conditionality for inflation not to be above single digit in 2003 and to climb down to 5% in 2004. The SoS indicated that the annual inflation rate as at September 2003 is 15%. The prices of goods have been skyrocketing without any equivalent rise in income. This has been acknowledged by the SoS in the following words: "Moreover, the tight foreign exchange situation caused by shortfalls in domestic output and export earnings, the rising cost of fuel imports as well as slowing down of donor assistance, has continued to put pressure on the exchange rate and therefore on the price level." The SoS added that "the Gambian people were thus squeezed in two ways, purchasing power had fallen, and prices had risen." On Foreign Reserves The fourth factor in determining the strength of the economy is the level of the foreign reserves of the country. The West African Monetary Zone expects an average level of foreign reserves that is equivalent to more than 3 months of import cover. IMF expects 5 months of import cover. The SoS indicated that the gross foreign reserves of the country fell by 42.2% from D1530 Million to D883 Million, which provides barely three months of import cover. This drop from 5.2 months of import cover to 3 months of income cover indicates a worsening of the state of the economy. Lastly, the West African Monetary Zone calls for all states to maintain real exchange rate stability. The SoS however indicated that between December 2002 and September 2003 the Dalasi depreciated in normal terms by about 43%, 50% and 58% against the Dollar, Pound Sterling and Euro respectively. All these facts indicate that the Gambian economy is indeed in a state of crisis with a debt burden of 20 Billion Dalasis and debt service charges amounting to 1.5 Billion for 2004. This constitutes 46% of the National Budget. This is more than the total expenditure on Education, Health, Agriculture, Finance, Foreign Affairs, Interior, Tourism, Works, Information, Fisheries combined. There is no doubt that the debt burden is Unsustainable. We will continue to make a comprehensive analysis of the budget speech in the Next Issue. _________________________________________________________________ Working moms: Find helpful tips here on managing kids, home, work — and yourself. http://special.msn.com/msnbc/workingmom.armx ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ To Search in the Gambia-L archives, go to: http://maelstrom.stjohns.edu/CGI/wa.exe?S1=gambia-l To contact the List Management, please send an e-mail to: [log in to unmask] To unsubscribe/subscribe or view archives of postings, go to the Gambia-L Web interface at: http://maelstrom.stjohns.edu/archives/gambia-l.html ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~