Beran Jeng,
Thanks for your posting on the prospects of African economies. Below, the
same World Bank has painted a slightly optimistic view of the prospects. As
for the future role of the African Development Bank, I am one of those who
believe in giving regional Banks a greater say in the management of our
economies. This issue will be taken up during the course of the discussion
of the Meltzer Report, an subject commented on on the L by Hamjatta and
Basil to name but a few.

   World Bank sees better days ahead for Africa
   by Nathaniel Harrison

   WASHINGTON, May 31 (AFP) - The World Bank on Wednesday predicted better
days ahead for Africa, where despite dire poverty, military conflict and
the
scourge of HIV/AIDS, economic momentum is gathering steam and political
processes are opening up.
   "Africa has huge challenges but the good news is that in the past five
years growth rates in these countries have been picking up and we are
beginning to see greater participation and democratization in African
countries," said Callisto Madavo, bank vice president for Africa.
   "People are more concerned about corruption and are holding their
governments accountable. All this is very encouraging and paving the way
for
Africa's development."
   Madavo was speaking here at launch of a new African survey that the bank
prepared with four other agencies, the African Development Bank, the
African
Economic Research Consortium, the Global Coalition for Africa and the
United
Nations Economic Commission for Africa.
   Bank officials, noting the turmoil in Sierra Leone and the Ethopia-
Eritrea
border war, agreed that the news from Africa in recent weeks had been
particularly gloomy.
   But according to Alan Gelb, World Bank chief economist for Africa, this
latest survey is more optimistic than previous bank studies for three
reasons
-- political change, the end of the Cold War and the possibilities held out
by
information technology.

   He said political change on the continent south of the Sahara, where 42
of
48 countries have held multiparty elections since the early 1990s, has
exposed
governments to new voices and "new ways of doing business."
   With the end of the Cold War, Gelb said, "there's much more interest in
donor countries in supporting effective development partners rather than,
as
it was in decades past, supporting trusted allies."
   In addition, thanks to advances in information technology, "it is now
possible to extend communications and information across Africa," providing
increasing numbers of people with critical health and scientific data.
   The report also challenges the notion that conflict in Africa is
intractable and unique, rooted in ancient ethnic hatreds.
   "The report draws on recent research which shows that there are very
strong
relationships between development factors and the propensity for conflict,"
according to Gelb.
   "Once these are taken into account, Africa is no different from anywhere
else in the world. The ethnic dimension is not an inevitable and
irremediable
cause for conflict."
   Among factors contributing to strife in Africa Gelb cited poverty, the
marginalization of large segments of society, friction stemming from an
excessive reliance on natural resources and a lack of employment
opportunities, "which means that the opportunity costs to young men going
off
to war are very low."
   For Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah of the Global Coalition for Africa, "whether
it
is Rwanda or Kosovo or Guatemala, the real cause of conflict is political
leadership. It's the leadership that creates a program of exclusion."
   While essentially optimistic in tone, the survey offers some stark
statistics on the scope of the challenge facing African authorities and
their
supporters in the industrialized world.
   Average per capita income in Africa is lower today than it was in the
1960s, the region's total output barely exceeds that of Belgium, excluding
South Africa the continent has fewer roads than Poland, its share of world
trade has declined steadily in the past 30 years to just two percent.
   Africa also accounts for 70 percent of the world's AIDS cases, which are
expected to reduce life expectancy by up to 20 years from current levels.
   Nevertheless, according to the survey, "all indicators show that
(economic)
performance improved in the second half of the 1990s." In the typical
African
country growth came to about 4.3 percent from 1994-1998.
   But the study predicted that sub-Saharan Africa would have to grow by
five
percent a year just to keep the number of poor people from increasing and
by
more than seven percent if the number of those in extreme poverty were to
be
halved by 2015.
   "Although the challenges facing Africa may seem insurmountable," said
Gelb,
"the continent has enormous untapped potential and hidden growth reserves.
   "The development process is cumulative, with success in one area opening
up
opportunities in others."

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