By YJ
 
Heck! Some Math & likely tendencies
 
The issue of super delegates is likely to mare the democratic candidacy this year. The magic number is 2025/4 so a candidate needs that to be the presidential nominee. Something funny is happening now. A Leapfrog is expected which is likely to put the democratic nominee in shambles in their bigger plan to unseat a republican candidate. The super delegates are about 795 individuals. So far 452 (243 + 209) already openly showed support but they can change any time. The remaining 343 are hanging loose. By the time that the primaries and caucuses are over, Senator Obama might need about half of the remaining super delegates to reach to the magic number while Senator Clinton might need all of that number of remaining super delegates to reach to the magic number.  
 
The latest from CNN analysts estimates the following:
Senator Obama               
1, 622 = 1413+209; Tdo = po+so
=Majority votes, Mvo 
=Majority states, Mso  
 
Senator Clinton; Tdc = pc+sc
1485 = 1242 + 243
=Minority votes, mvc
=Minority states, msc
 
 
Td = p+s,
Where Td is Total delegates
p is pledged delegates
 s is super delegates
o – symbolic to Senator Obama
c- symbolic to Senator Clinton
 
Tdo>Tdc
Mvo>mvc
Mso>msc
 
Tdo + so = 2024
Tdc + sc = 2024
so and sc are variables moving up or down depending on the weighing of these super delegates.
 
As at now, Obama leads in the pledged delegates, which constitutes the results of the primaries and caucuses. He is also leading in the popular votes. He won twice as many states as Senator Clinton. Senator Clinton won the bigger states like California, Ohio, Massachusetts, New York and et cetera.  
 
CNN predictions:
CNN analysts predicted that with the remaining states, Senator Clinton might capture some more delegates, in fact is likely to win Pennsylvania, but she cannot override Senator Obama in both the popular vote or the pledged delegates. The whole contest now comes to the super delegates. They are going to decide who their nominee will be. This is made obvious by the fact that Florida and Michigan will not be seated. At least, a deal is not reached yet. This was another chance to leapfrog Senator Clinton to the top. In the spirit of reconciliation, they can be shared in half to the candidates. The problem with honoring the previous contest, there wasn’t a ballot for Senator Obama, remembering that there were many in the contest which would have shared the delegates among all of them. By far, those two areas favored Senator Clinton but as at now they don’t count. They are also being punished for breaking the rules. Like the old adage goes, ‘had I known shall never be known.’ Either way, it is a contest. Each of them has a right to contest to the end, in as much as the other doesn’t reach the magic number. 
 
Weighing of the Super delegates
What if:
 
(I)                 The super delegates decide that a victory in any state for a candidate is an automatic ‘take all’ of super delegates for that particular candidate. Then it is obvious that Obama will get the nomination. 
(II)              The super delegates go by the first in pledged (contested) delegates, and then it is obvious that Senator Obama will get the nomination. 
(III)            The super delegates go by the popular votes (contested human count), it is another obvious nomination for Senator Obama. 
(IV)           The super delegates go freely to Denver, Colorado for the democratic convention where they are faced with two hot candidates, in which the criteria will not be based on their victories in pledged or popular vote. This could either leapfrog Senator Clinton or give victory back to Senator Obama. That uncertainty cannot be predicted by anyone. 
(V)              The super delegates give a weight to a woman to mark the first woman to contest in the presidential elections in America. That is a big catch. 
(VI)           The Super delegates give a weight to a Blackman to mark the first of its kind to reach to that height in American elections. That’s another big catch. 
(VII)         The super delegates go by ‘experience’ then Senator Clinton who served as a first lady for eight years and a long time Senator is likely to take it.
(VIII)      The super delegates go by ‘judgment’ then Senator Obama is getting the credit of his opposition to the war in Iraq.
(IX)           The super delegates go by ‘race’ majority then Senator Clinton got it. 
(X)              The super delegates weigh in the messages delivered – ‘Change for Obama’ Vs ‘Experience for Clinton.’ That creates a split. Those that believe in change will vote for Senator Obama. Those that believe in experience will vote for Senator Clinton. 
(XI)           Senator Clinton realizes that she trails in the ‘counting’ and withdraws her candidature for the bigger picture ahead.
(XII)         Senator Obama realizes Senator Clinton is excessive in getting the nomination, withdraws his candidature and safeguards the Democratic Party’s chance of winning the presidency. 
(XIII)      The sun or the moon is ordered to shine on one of them. 
 
Other factors are likely to weigh in, like the Clinton sex scandal, Jeremiah Wright’s alleged racial comments, Geraldine’s alleged racial comments, Obama’s ties to Islam, et cetera. The message that each of these candidates has is likely to attract the super delegates. 
 
In conclusion, we are looking at two potential winning candidates, either way, historic in American politics. Once a nominee emerges, the other is likely to endorse and ask his or her supporters to rally behind, then all the media sickness will be buried for eternity. On a personal note, I wish each of them well. By far, one of them will make a better president than the war-mongers. 
 
Disclaimer: The above is solely my thought-provoking opinion. If you a supporter of one of these candidates, I suggest you read it just as an opinion. 
 
 
 
 
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