The recent announcement by Yaya Jammeh that huge oil deposits have been
discovered in The Gambia has suddenly  provided a ray of economic hope
in a country that has been engulfed in economic grief. Hopes have been
elevated and expectations raised that the blessing of such  an oil find
would mean the end of the economic troubles that have plagued the
country.  The discovery of oil in The Gambia does not however, in
itself, translate into the economic upturn that many have dreamed of.
It can as easily turn into a nightmare that transcends the economic
realm. As examples abound, the discovery of oil and natural resources
in some countries has brought about profound economic, social and other
changes that have resulted in the upliftment of the citizens of such
countries. As examples also abound, such discoveries have also brought
about economic, social and political quagmires  for some countries
resulting in civil wars, economic and social disasters. The discovery
of oil in a country is the initial step in a long process that is
affected by a host of factors, which contribute to its ultimate
potential as a factor in the socio-economic life of the country. With
this in mind, will the discovery of oil in The Gambia be a blessing or
a curse? The answer to this question depends to a large extent on how
the government deals with the whole process right from the exploration
stages to the management and distribution of the derived revenue.

The benefits that the discovery of oil in The Gambia can bring to the
country are numerous.  Among them are the increment in the country’s
revenue. This will avail the government the opportunity to implement
programs that will improve the living standards of the people. These
programs can take the form of improved health care, education and other
facilities that will directly impact the lives of Gambians and raise
them from their present wretched situation.

The creation of an oil industry will bring with it parallel industries
that will expand the country’s economy.  Construction of oil
facilities, transportation of oil, servicing of the facilities and
those working in the industry will mean the creation of jobs that will
drastically reduce the current high unemployment levels.

Another potential benefit of oil in The Gambia is the improvement of
the governance and the human rights environment. It has been shown time
and again that the economic situation or performance of a country has a
direct bearing on the governance situation and human rights in the said
country. If a country is doing well and its citizens are generally
looked after fairly well, the potential for conflict is greatly reduced
and the government can put into place mechanisms that ensure good
governance and the respect for human rights.

Yet another potential benefit of oil for the country is the provision
of revenue to improve the infrastructure and other industries. Better
electricity facilities that ensure uninterrupted supplies, better
roads, better telecommunication facilities etc. With more revenue, the
government and private individuals who benefit from the oil industry
can also invest in the country’s other sectors such as agriculture and
tourism.

The discovery of oil in The Gambia does also have the potential to be a
curse for the country. The extraction of oil and the subsequent
processes will in all probability bring about revenue on a hitherto
unknown scale in the country. This will have the potential to fuel
greed and the danger of trying to control the revenue without
accountability. The process will be mired in a lack of transparency as
revenue, processes and resources will be dubiously handled. This will
probably lead to the marginalisation of some parts of society who will
demand a more transparent way of handling the oil and the derived
revenue while those in charge will devise ways and means of staying
more in control. These ways and means might take repressive forms,
which will probably lead to instability.

The discovery of oil can also spell the death of diversification in the
country’s economy. The revenue derived from oil and the potential to
make more quicker can result in the government and private individuals
relying and investing more in the industry at the detriment of the
other sectors. This is dangerous in that the failure of this industry
or the drying up of the wells will leave the country in limbo.

Another potential danger is the provision of increased revenue that can
be used to provide the means to repress the Gambian people. The
availability of oil revenue to potentially address the socio-economic
ills of the country will in all probability spur the Gambian people to
demand better services and governance. Failure to provide that might
mean resistance from the population, which might in turn spur the
government to employ more repressive methods. The curse of the oil in
this scenario will be the increased revenue at the disposal of the
government that will be used to purchase more arms and other equipment
for use by the security forces to repress genuine dissent. On top of
this, it might reinforce an unaccountable and undemocratic government
and allows its centrally controlled revenue to act as a means of
engaging in self-preservation at the expense of the national interest.

As greed has the potential to encourage the desire for perpetuation of
the status quo, the success of few individuals might make them want to
concentrate economic power and hold on to it at all costs. This will
lead to more corruption, greed, refusal to share or cede economic power
and the marginalisation of some parts of the population. As economic
power eventually translates to political power, this tiny group might
invest resources to perpetuate the status quo that might be repressive
and antithetic to the social, political and economic stability of the
country.

The potential negative effects of oil exploration, extraction,
processing, transportation etc. on the environment should be cause for
concern. Air, marine and land pollution and the inherent dangers to
human, plant and wildlife health can turn out to be true nightmares.
Oil spills, toxic fumes from machinery, deforestation and other
disasters that can follow oil production can result in the increase in
the incidence of cancer, air passage illnesses, contamination of
seafood resulting in loss of livelihood and devastation of marine life.
This can in turn be devastating for the people and environment.

In an environment where foreign oil companies are not properly
regulated and controlled, the environmental and social costs can be
high. The use of outdated equipment and technologies that can have
harmful side effects on the environment will be counterproductive. As
these technologies and processes degrade the environment, the potential
for conflict between these international companies and the local
population grows. A classic example of this is the clash between the
Ogoni people and the multinational companies operating in Nigeria.

Another factor that can have unwanted effects is the issue of
compensation. Since the precise location of the oil is not widely
known, the issue of whether there are people and communities to
compensate is premature. If the oil is found in areas inhabited by
people and communities and they are not properly compensated for their
lands and the proceeds from the oil are not used to develop their
communities, they will feel marginalized and this might lead to
conflicts that can have destabilizing effects on the country.

Since there are potential blessings and curses related to the discovery
of oil in The Gambia, what can the government do to ensure that the
country benefits from the production of the oil? The first thing would
be ensure equitable distribution of the revenue. The government should
institute policies and programs to address, provide for and improve the
socio-economic situation of the people of The Gambia. The revenue
should be seen to be invested in the people and infrastructure of the
country and should be seen to be beneficial to the people.

The second would be to devise ways and means of creating transparent
processes and systems that would cut corruption at all stages of the
oil production process from the exploration to the accounting and
auditing stages. Independent institutions such as the judiciary can be
made use of to check corruption. These institutions should be empowered
to function as truly independent bodies and protected from undue and
unwarranted interference from the executive and private individuals. A
board to award contracts in the technical, production services in a
transparent and process-driven manner should be instituted and
protected against undue manipulation and interference.

Clear and strict guidelines should be issued to and enforced against
foreign companies involved in the production process to ensure the use
of up-to-date technologies with the aim of protecting the environment.
The livelihoods of the local economies should be protected by those
involved in oil production and the local communities should be involved
in energy policy making. The foreign companies should be encouraged to
invest in the local communities in order to be seen to be caring for
their well-being and not just exploiters. This will help to avoid
situations seen in Nigeria and other countries.

A reserve for future governments and a fund for future generations
should be instituted as is the case in Norway. This will help to ensure
that future governments will have resources to continue development
work and that future generations will benefit from the oil. Since the
extraction of oil as a resource is not infinite, spending the resources
in a wise manner will ensure that the oil is beneficial to all
Gambians. Spending it as in the case of Equitorial Guinea where the
president and his few cronies enrich themselves at the detriment of the
people will result in negative consequences for the country.
Strict environmental regulations should be instituted to protect the
environment. Heavy penalties for breach of such regulations should be
provided for. Emergency procedures should be prepared to enable
emergency services to promptly and effectively respond to accidents or
spills so as to minimise their impact on the environment. Emergency
personnel should be properly and effectively trained and equipped with
up-to-date equipment.

Having looked at the potential blessings, curses and recommendations
related to the discovery of oil in The Gambia as announced by Yaya
Jammeh, it can be concluded that oil in The Gambia can be a blessing or
a curse depending to a large extent on how the government and other
players handle the processes involved. If the government chooses to
control the oil without transparency and accountability, marginalizes
portions of the population, fails to diversify the economy and
concentrates totally on this sector, encourages or refuses to fight and
deal with corruption in the various processes, engages in the
repression of the population, uses oil revenue to further arm its
security services to violate the rights of the people, allow the
concentration of the oil industry and revenue in the hands of a few
individuals, fails to put in place environmental safeguards, fails to
regulate foreign companies and fails to insist on those involved in the
oil production process to invest in up-to-date technologies, the oil
can be a curse. This is because it will result in civil disorder,
economic and political instability, environmental degradation and
catastrophes etc. If on the other hand, the government uses the derived
revenue to invest in the infrastructural, human and economic
development of the country, properly compensates communities displaced
by oil production, uses the improved living standards of the population
to ensure respect for human rights, ensures that the production
processes are transparent and accountable, ensures proper and
accountable use of the revenue, institutes proper auditing, diversifies
the economy with revenue from the oil, ensures that as wide a section
of the population benefit from the production of the oil as opposed to
concentrating everything in the hands of a few individuals, ensures
that companies involved in the process use up-to-date technologies and
processes, creates reserves for future generations, the discovery of
oil in The Gambia will indeed be a blessing. As the body that has the
ultimate power to decide the processes involved in the production of
oil in The Gambia, the government can play a big part in deciding
whether the oil is a blessing or curse. So can the people of The
Gambia. Thanks.

        Buharry.

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