Buharry,

As usual, I enjoy reading your postings.

You have a wonderful way of putting your points across.

I look forward to more of these objective and well-balanced opinions.


Best regards,

Ablie Njie- Lekbi
Atlanta


>From: "M. Gassama" <[log in to unmask]>
>Reply-To: [log in to unmask]
>To: [log in to unmask]
>Subject: [>-<] Gambian Oil: Blessing Or Curse?
>Date: Sun, 22 Feb 2004 02:53:15 +0100 (CET)
>
>[ This e-mail is posted to Gambia|Post e-Gathering by "M. Gassama"
><[log in to unmask]> ]
>
>
>The recent announcement by Yaya Jammeh that huge oil deposits have
>been
>discovered in The Gambia has suddenly  provided a ray of economic hope
>in a country that has been engulfed in economic grief. Hopes have been
>elevated and expectations raised that the blessing of such  an oil
>find
>would mean the end of the economic troubles that have plagued the
>country.  The discovery of oil in The Gambia does not however, in
>itself, translate into the economic upturn that many have dreamed of.
>It can as easily turn into a nightmare that transcends the economic
>realm. As examples abound, the discovery of oil and natural resources
>in some countries has brought about profound economic, social and
>other
>changes that have resulted in the upliftment of the citizens of such
>countries. As examples also abound, such discoveries have also brought
>about economic, social and political quagmires  for some countries
>resulting in civil wars, economic and social disasters. The discovery
>of oil in a country is the initial step in a long process that is
>affected by a host of factors, which contribute to its ultimate
>potential as a factor in the socio-economic life of the country. With
>this in mind, will the discovery of oil in The Gambia be a blessing or
>a curse? The answer to this question depends to a large extent on how
>the government deals with the whole process right from the exploration
>stages to the management and distribution of the derived revenue.
>
>The benefits that the discovery of oil in The Gambia can bring to the
>country are numerous.  Among them are the increment in the country’s
>revenue. This will avail the government the opportunity to implement
>programs that will improve the living standards of the people. These
>programs can take the form of improved health care, education and
>other
>facilities that will directly impact the lives of Gambians and raise
>them from their present wretched situation.
>
>The creation of an oil industry will bring with it parallel industries
>that will expand the country’s economy.  Construction of oil
>facilities, transportation of oil, servicing of the facilities and
>those working in the industry will mean the creation of jobs that will
>drastically reduce the current high employment levels.
>
>Another potential benefit of oil in The Gambia is the improvement of
>the governance and the human rights environment. It has been shown
>time
>and again that the economic situation or performance of a country has
>a
>direct bearing on the governance situation and human rights in the
>said
>country. If a country is doing well and its citizens are generally
>looked after fairly well, the potential for conflict is greatly
>reduced
>and the government can put into place mechanisms that ensure good
>governance and the respect for human rights.
>
>Yet another potential benefit of oil for the country is the provision
>of revenue to improve the infrastructure and other industries. Better
>electricity facilities that ensure uninterrupted supplies, better
>roads, better telecommunication facilities etc. With more revenue, the
>government and private individuals who benefit from the oil industry
>can also invest in the country’s other sectors such as agriculture and
>tourism.
>
>The discovery of oil in The Gambia does also have the potential to be
>a
>curse for the country. The extraction of oil and the subsequent
>processes will in all probability bring about revenue on a hitherto
>unknown scale in the country. This will have the potential to fuel
>greed and the danger of trying to control the revenue without
>accountability. The process will be mired in a lack of transparency as
>revenue, processes and resources will be dubiously handled. This will
>probably lead to the marginalisation of some parts of society who will
>demand a more transparent way of handling the oil and the derived
>revenue while those in charge will devise ways and means of staying
>more in control. These ways and means might take repressive forms,
>which will probably lead to instability.
>
>The discovery of oil can also spell the death of diversification in
>the
>country’s economy. The revenue derived from oil and the potential to
>make more quicker can result in the government and private individuals
>relying and investing more in the industry at the detriment of the
>other sectors. This is dangerous in that the failure of this industry
>or the drying up of the wells will leave the country in limbo.
>
>Another potential danger is the provision of increased revenue that
>can
>be used to provide the means to repress the Gambian people. The
>availability of oil revenue to potentially address the socio-economic
>ills of the country will in all probability spur the Gambian people to
>demand better services and governance. Failure to provide that might
>mean resistance from the population, which might in turn spur the
>government to employ more repressive methods. The curse of the oil in
>this scenario will be the increased revenue at the disposal of the
>government that will be used to purchase more arms and other equipment
>for use by the security forces to repress genuine dissent. On top of
>this, it might reinforce an unaccountable and undemocratic government
>and allows its centrally controlled revenue to act as a means of
>engaging in self-preservation at the expense of the national interest.
>
>As greed has the potential to encourage the desire for perpetuation of
>the status quo, the success of few individuals might make them want to
>concentrate economic power and hold on to it at all costs. This will
>lead to more corruption, greed, refusal to share or cede economic
>power
>and the marginalisation of some parts of the population. As economic
>power eventually translates to political power, this tiny group might
>invest resources to perpetuate the status quo that might be repressive
>and antithetic to the social, political and economic stability of the
>country.
>
>The potential negative effects of oil exploration, extraction,
>processing, transportation etc. on the environment should be cause for
>concern. Air, marine and land pollution and the inherent dangers to
>human, plant and wildlife health can turn out to be true nightmares.
>Oil spills, toxic fumes from machinery, deforestation and other
>disasters that can follow oil production can result in the increase in
>the incidence of cancer, air passage illnesses, contamination of
>seafood resulting in loss of livelihood and devastation of marine
>life.
>This can in turn be devastating for the people and environment.
>
>In an environment where foreign oil companies are not properly
>regulated and controlled, the environmental and social costs can be
>high. The use of outdated equipment and technologies that can have
>harmful side effects on the environment will be counterproductive. As
>these technologies and processes degrade the environment, the
>potential
>for conflict between these international companies and the local
>population grows. A classic example of this is the clash between the
>Ogoni people and the multinational companies operating in Nigeria.
>
>Another factor that can have unwanted effects is the issue of
>compensation. Since the precise location of the oil is not widely
>known, the issue of whether there are people and communities to
>compensate is premature. If the oil is found in areas inhabited by
>people and communities and they are not properly compensated for their
>lands and the proceeds from the oil are not used to develop their
>communities, they will feel marginalized and this might lead to
>conflicts that can have destabilizing effects on the country.
>
>Since there are potential blessings and curses related to the
>discovery
>of oil in The Gambia, what can the government do to ensure that the
>country benefits from the production of the oil? The first thing would
>be ensure equitable distribution of the revenue. The government should
>institute policies and programs to address, provide for and improve
>the
>socio-economic situation of the people of The Gambia. The revenue
>should be seen to be invested in the people and infrastructure of the
>country and should be seen to be beneficial to the people.
>
>The second would be to devise ways and means of creating transparent
>processes and systems that would cut corruption at all stages of the
>oil production process from the exploration to the accounting and
>auditing stages. Independent institutions such as the judiciary can be
>made use of to check corruption. These institutions should be
>empowered
>to function as truly independent bodies and protected from undue and
>unwarranted interference from the executive and private individuals. A
>board to award contracts in the technical, production services in a
>transparent and process-driven manner should be instituted and
>protected against undue manipulation and interference.
>
>Clear and strict guidelines should be issued to and enforced against
>foreign companies involved in the production process to ensure the use
>of up-to-date technologies with the aim of protecting the environment.
>The livelihoods of the local economies should be protected by those
>involved in oil production and the local communities should be
>involved
>in energy policy making. The foreign companies should be encouraged to
>invest in the local communities in order to be seen to be caring for
>their well-being and not just exploiters. This will help to avoid
>situations seen in Nigeria and other countries.
>
>A reserve for future governments and a fund for future generations
>should be instituted as is the case in Norway. This will help to
>ensure
>that future governments will have resources to continue development
>work and that future generations will benefit from the oil. Since the
>extraction of oil as a resource is not infinite, spending the
>resources
>in a wise manner will ensure that the oil is beneficial to all
>Gambians. Spending it as in the case of Equitorial Guinea where the
>president and his few cronies enrich themselves at the detriment of
>the
>people will result in negative consequences for the country.
>Strict environmental regulations should be instituted to protect the
>environment. Heavy penalties for breach of such regulations should be
>provided for. Emergency procedures should be prepared to enable
>emergency services to promptly and effectively respond to accidents or
>spills so as to minimise their impact on the environment. Emergency
>personnel should be properly and effectively trained and equipped with
>up-to-date equipment.
>
>Having looked at the potential blessings, curses and recommendations
>related to the discovery of oil in The Gambia as announced by Yaya
>Jammeh, it can be concluded that oil in The Gambia can be a blessing
>or
>a curse depending to a large extent on how the government and other
>players handle the processes involved. If the government chooses to
>control the oil without transparency and accountability, marginalizes
>portions of the population, fails to diversify the economy and
>concentrates totally on this sector, encourages or refuses to fight
>and
>deal with corruption in the various processes, engages in the
>repression of the population, uses oil revenue to further arm its
>security services to violate the rights of the people, allow the
>concentration of the oil industry and revenue in the hands of a few
>individuals, fails to put in place environmental safeguards, fails to
>regulate foreign companies and fails to insist on those involved in
>the
>oil production process to invest in up-to-date technologies, the oil
>can be a curse. This is because it will result in civil disorder,
>economic and political instability, environmental degradation and
>catastrophes etc. If on the other hand, the government uses the
>derived
>revenue to invest in the infrastructural, human and economic
>development of the country, properly compensates communities displaced
>by oil production, uses the improved living standards of the
>population
>to ensure respect for human rights, ensures that the production
>processes are transparent and accountable, ensures proper and
>accountable use of the revenue, institutes proper auditing,
>diversifies
>the economy with revenue from the oil, ensures that as wide a section
>of the population benefit from the production of the oil as opposed to
>concentrating everything in the hands of a few individuals, ensures
>that companies involved in the process use up-to-date technologies and
>processes, creates reserves for future generations, the discovery of
>oil in The Gambia will indeed be a blessing. As the body that has the
>ultimate power to decide the processes involved in the production of
>oil in The Gambia, the government can play a big part in deciding
>whether the oil is a blessing or curse. So can the people of The
>Gambia. Thanks.
>
>
>       Buharry.
>
>
>
>
>
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