----- Original Message -----
From: "Andy Mensah" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Saturday, November 15, 2003 2:09 PM
Subject: [unioNews] IRAQ: No Exit


Published: Nov 14 2003
<H3>No Exit</H3>
Ivo H. Daalder

While President George W. Bush insists that "America will never run,"
a fierce debate is raging just below the surface of his
administration over when and how America should exit from Iraq. The
debate pits those who favor a massive effort to turn Iraq into a
beacon of democracy for the Middle East against those who want to
concentrate the U.S. mission on defeating insurgents so American
troops can return home. The wisdom of a war against Iraq had few
doubters within the Bush administration. Yet this consensus obscured
a deep division over the war's purpose. We could characterize this as
a split between "democratic imperialists" and "assertive
nationalists."

Led by Paul Wolfowitz, the deputy defense secretary, and
neoconservatives outside the administration, the democratic
imperialists believe America can be secure only if the rest of the
world is remade in America's image. Accordingly they favor deploying
ever more U.S. troops and spending ever more money to create a
stable, democratic Iraq. Their model is postwar Germany, where a long-
term military occupation and the Marshall Plan created the conditions
for a free, democratic and prosperous Europe with Germany at its
core.

Assertive nationalists such as Donald Rumsfeld, the defense
secretary, and Dick Cheney, the vice president, do not share this
ambitious and costly vision. They believe America's security demands
foremost the defeat of its enemies and the elimination of the threats
they pose. After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, Saddam
Hussein's ties to terrorists and his appetite for weapons of mass
destruction made him an unacceptable risk. He had to go.

For assertive nationalists, the purpose of U.S. engagement in Iraq is
not to create a democratic Eden, but to defeat insurgents and
terrorists. Their model is Afghanistan, where a sovereign local
government-backed by international peacekeeping troops-handles
internal security, and U.S. troops focus solely on counter-terrorist
operations.

Where does Bush come down in this debate? He has occasionally used
the rhetoric of democratic imperialists, notably in last week's
stirring speech before the National Endowment for Democracy. But his
long-standing disdain for nation building, his lackluster interest in
the reconstruction of Afghanistan, and his initial failure to push
his subordinates to generate a plan for rebuilding Iraq all mark him
as an assertive nationalist. His recent bid to speed the training of
Iraq's police and security forces in order to reduce America's
military presence is further evidence of this.

A continued decline in public support for Bush's Iraq policies will
only reinforce his preference for the Afghan rather than the German
model. He is likely to move ever more quickly to restore Iraq's full
sovereignty and to transfer political power to the interim Iraqi
government. A smaller U.S. military contingent would then focus on
counter-insurgency and anti-terrorist operations.

Such a shift in strategy could reduce the domestic political costs of
the deteriorating situation in Iraq. The more focused American
mission would enable U.S. troops to retreat into well-guarded
compounds outside the cities, only to emerge to conduct quick raids
against insurgent forces. The smaller military footprint should
appreciably lower the number of U.S. casualties.

But would it serve the interests of stability within Iraq, the Middle
East and the world? The example of Afghanistan is sobering. Two years
after the Taliban regime was ousted, senior Taliban and al-Qaeda
leaders remain at large and security is precarious everywhere but in
Kabul. While a constitutional process is moving forward, the country
is hardly the vibrant democracy some hoped it would become.

<B>A more focused counter-insurgency effort in Iraq may prove more
successful, if only because the U.S. commitment to success is likely
to be greater. It may thus be possible to establish some degree of
stability over the next six to 12 months. But turning a society
devastated by war and brutal repression, economic mismanagement and
corruption, and deep ethnic, tribal and religious differences into a
beacon of democracy will require a far larger and deeper
international effort than Bush appears to have in mind.</B>

***
Ivo H. Daalder is a Special Adviser on National Security at the
Center for American Progress. Daalder and James Lindsay are co-
authors of America Unbound: The Bush Revolution in Foreign Policy
(Brookings Press, 2003).


Copyright © 2003 TomPaine.com




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