The following is a forward from a correspondent in Colombia.     An
interesting aspect of the commentary, is how the military and the
Rightist death squads are coordinating this US directed offensive.
..............................Tony Abdo
__________________________________
Please post this.
Danger signs in Colombia (Shit about to hit fan as Plan Colombia kicks
in)
The Plan Colombia, really in the works now for several years, is kicking
into high gear. Rumors are rife in well placed circles in Bogota that
when the current agreement granting a demilitarized zone to the FARC
expires next month, it will not be renewed. Instead, the despeje - a
40,000 hectare territory surrounding the town of San Vicente de Caguan,
will be attacked by the Colombian military.

Already the government has launched a massive escalation of the war in
two other regions: Sumapaz, and Putumayo. Paramilitaries have increased
death squad activities in Sucre and Putumayo, and the FARC has launched
its own offensive in Tolima.

Linked to these events is the government's purge of 338 officers and
enlisted men for human rights violations.
The escalation of the war in Sumapaz is the most significant militarily
and politically.

Sumapaz is known as the cradle of the FARC - politically part of the
city of Bogota, but in fact rugged back country where during and before
"La Violencia" small peasant farmers battled large landowners under the
leadership of socialists. Those groups became one of the earliest and
strongest detachments of the FARC, and Sumapaz has - at least until
recent years, given popular support to the FARC. It was, until recently,
a no-go zone for the Colombian army.

It is also the strategic link between the despeje and Bogota, and
between the despeje and the cocaine route to the Pacific coast.

For nearly a month Sumapaz has been under an emergency decree. Civilian
construction workers, convoyed by large detachments of soldiers, have
been methodically destroying the roads, supply dumps, and fortified
camps of the FARC in the area. Local politicians - previously ambivalent
toward the FARC or closet sympathizers - have been announcing the
construction of new schools in the region, new roads, new markets, new
health centers, etc.
Fighting has been light.

The government's aim is not hit and run. It's aim is to regain complete
political and military control of one of the FARC's most important areas
of influence and sustenance.

Control of Sumapaz is also a strategic necessity to defend Bogota
against attacks from the despeje - which the FARC might well launch if
the despeje were attacked.

The battles in Putumayo have been more widely publicized in the press -
because Putumayo is a major cocaine growing area. It appears that the
army and the paramilitaries are working in coordination - with para
death squads preceding the army into some townships.

Fighting and death squad activities in Putumayo have sent large numbers
of refugees into the neighboring cities and towns - and into neighboring
Ecuador.
This could in fact be one of the strategic aims of the government- to
give the government in Ecuador a raison d'etre to attack the rear flank
of the FARC which in fact operates on both sides of the border in the
region.

In Putumayo, like in Sumapaz, the government's aim appears to be to
regain complete control. To this end they are organizing the removal of
the civilian population from towns and farms. The process of creating
internal refugees is now, for the first time, being openly encouraged
and administered by the government.

This could be the harbinger of a massive escalation.

The FARC's offensive in Tolima is aimed at securing a crucial portion of
the transport route to the pacific Ocean, and to some extent outflanking
the offensive in Sumapaz by opening up other possible routes.

The work of the paras in Putumayo is a departure from their strategy of
focusing their attacks almost exclusively on the ELN.

However, their other offensive - in Sucre - is not. Plus the paras are
threatening to extend their activities into cities in Santander and
Norte de Santander- including the large city of Bucuramanga.
All of these escalations may well be the preliminary steps to a major
escalation in November. If this happens, events in Colombia will be hard
to predict, but certainly bloody.