In a message dated 98-06-29 01:38:58 EDT, [log in to unmask]
writes:

<< BS! Anyone with any expertise in any field of endeavor relies on "just a
 feeling about the
 fitness of things" all the time. If the process is filtered through a
 acquired expertise and knowledge its an effective method for getting things
 done. Ask any scientist or mathematician. >>

Bruce,

I have to agree. After 25 years of estimating projects I use all the tools and
reason that I can muster to justify my gut feelings. The tools are at the
mercy of my feelings. Though I started as a stonemason, and moved into
historic preservation, if anything, my true trade at this time is estimating.
Pursuit of this trade was a deliberate plan on my part. I was told many, many
years ago by a crafty estimator, a mentor, an old guy that had won and lost
fortunes, built airports & stadiums and gas stations, that his downfall was
estimating labor. Therefore I have spent a lot of time trying to figure out
how to estimate labor. You cannot estimate labor without having a gut feel for
the people and the process.

What I do not see taught in the schools is how to gage your gut feelings. I'm
not talking about commodity construction, where you can count units and refer
to a rate chart, but the custom applications that are involved in working on
existing structures often with unique problems. I KNOW when I am ON the mark
with an estimate, as well as I know when I am lost and floundering. Some
things I have no business estimating. When lost and floundering I up the
estimate to accomodate my sense of risk.

Sometimes you have to do an estimate when you do not feel comfortable, and
then the goal is to make sure you are high enough to cover any risk, but not
so high as to look like a fool.

When on the mark I have a sense of confidence that causes me to reason that I
need to find the deadly flaw. Too much confidence is an error, any confidence
requires examination. A confident estimate is usually too high for the market
to support. An estimate that has a slight bite to keep you awake through part
of the night, but not so much to have you chucking in the toilet from nerves,
is usually a good estimate... but then you have to follow it through with
tight project management and cost control. It is impossible to NOT be
emotional in contracting on historic preservation.

Estimating is an art... I consider calling any occupation an art imples that
you use reason & science and couple it with a facility of emotional
intelligence.

The most important estimating decision for me is to determine my feelings
about the project. Buildings do not give me reliable feelings, the people
involved with the project give me the feelings that I need to gage. Sometimes
the mix does not feel right and I have slowly learned to back away. Projects
that I have taken on where my feelings were negative I end up spending months
and years trying to extricate myself from. I think the greatest learning
experience I have had in the last ten years is to rely less on "objective" BS,
and to rely more on my feelings, and to be more sensitive to me feelings.

To estimate is to imagine the future and to place a monetary value on the
prediction.

Another problem that I encounter is that the people who ask me for estimates,
either design professionals or property owners, have absolutely no clue as to
how an estimate is actually done. The emotional toll is one that must be
monitored, otherwise it can quickly lead to burnout. Also, I'm wary of any
discussion that expresses that rational consciousness is the predominant and
intelligent portion of our psyche.

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