In a word or two: Right on. This is the best articulation of what
estimating is all about that I have ever read. And, I believe, its
applicability is universal.

Reading it so inspired me that I'm going to sit down and tell my Amish
story tonight.

Bruce

----------
> From: Ken Follett
>
> Bruce,
>
> I have to agree. After 25 years of estimating projects I use all the
tools and
> reason that I can muster to justify my gut feelings. The tools are at the
> mercy of my feelings. Though I started as a stonemason, and moved into
> historic preservation, if anything, my true trade at this time is
estimating.
> Pursuit of this trade was a deliberate plan on my part. I was told many,
many
> years ago by a crafty estimator, a mentor, an old guy that had won and
lost
> fortunes, built airports & stadiums and gas stations, that his downfall
was
> estimating labor. Therefore I have spent a lot of time trying to figure
out
> how to estimate labor. You cannot estimate labor without having a gut
feel for
> the people and the process.
>
> What I do not see taught in the schools is how to gage your gut feelings.
I'm
> not talking about commodity construction, where you can count units and
refer
> to a rate chart, but the custom applications that are involved in working
on
> existing structures often with unique problems. I KNOW when I am ON the
mark
> with an estimate, as well as I know when I am lost and floundering. Some
> things I have no business estimating. When lost and floundering I up the
> estimate to accomodate my sense of risk.
>
> Sometimes you have to do an estimate when you do not feel comfortable,
and
> then the goal is to make sure you are high enough to cover any risk, but
not
> so high as to look like a fool.
>
> When on the mark I have a sense of confidence that causes me to reason
that I
> need to find the deadly flaw. Too much confidence is an error, any
confidence
> requires examination. A confident estimate is usually too high for the
market
> to support. An estimate that has a slight bite to keep you awake through
part
> of the night, but not so much to have you chucking in the toilet from
nerves,
> is usually a good estimate... but then you have to follow it through with
> tight project management and cost control. It is impossible to NOT be
> emotional in contracting on historic preservation.
>
> Estimating is an art... I consider calling any occupation an art imples
that
> you use reason & science and couple it with a facility of emotional
> intelligence.
>
> The most important estimating decision for me is to determine my feelings
> about the project. Buildings do not give me reliable feelings, the people
> involved with the project give me the feelings that I need to gage.
Sometimes
> the mix does not feel right and I have slowly learned to back away.
Projects
> that I have taken on where my feelings were negative I end up spending
months
> and years trying to extricate myself from. I think the greatest learning
> experience I have had in the last ten years is to rely less on
"objective" BS,
> and to rely more on my feelings, and to be more sensitive to me feelings.
>
> To estimate is to imagine the future and to place a monetary value on the
> prediction.
>
> Another problem that I encounter is that the people who ask me for
estimates,
> either design professionals or property owners, have absolutely no clue
as to
> how an estimate is actually done. The emotional toll is one that must be
> monitored, otherwise it can quickly lead to burnout. Also, I'm wary of
any
> discussion that expresses that rational consciousness is the predominant
and
> intelligent portion of our psyche.
>
> ][<en