>>> Cuyler Page <[log in to unmask]> 2/09/99 11:45:55 >>> wrote:

"It is great to see stairs with no railings and porches kids can jump off of.
No wonder we speak of the good old days !
As time passes without an accident, does the risk of incident increase or
decrease ?"

The risk of an accident is not affected by whether there has been one already.  However, as time passes without an accident, more data becomes available on the likelihood of an accident occurring, and thus the calculated risk may decrease.  Furthermore, if accidents do not occur, then people will not perceive a situation to be 'risky', and thus perceived risk will also decrease.

Much of risk assessment and management is about managing perceptions.  

Cheers

david

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david west
Arup Facade Engineering
477 Kent Street, Sydney  NSW  2000
PO Box Q116, QVB Post Office  NSW  1230
Australia
Tel:  +61 (02) 9320 9447
Fax: +61 (02) 9320 9321
Mobile: +61 (419) 223 405
Email:  [log in to unmask]
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