The risk of an accident is not affected by whether there has been one
already.   I know when the rest of us kids were standing on the porch
looking down at the kid with the split head there was at least 30 seconds of
reduced risk taking. How about antilock breaks ? It seems that people adjust
their behavior to the surroundings or equipment. ctb
-----Original Message-----
From: David west <[log in to unmask]>
To: [log in to unmask]
<[log in to unmask]>
Date: Wednesday, September 01, 1999 11:40 PM
Subject: Re: risks (previously Ithaca ....)


>>>> Cuyler Page <[log in to unmask]> 2/09/99 11:45:55 >>> wrote:
>
>"It is great to see stairs with no railings and porches kids can jump off
of.
>No wonder we speak of the good old days !
>As time passes without an accident, does the risk of incident increase or
>decrease ?"
>
>The risk of an accident is not affected by whether there has been one
already.  However, as time passes without an accident, more data becomes
available on the likelihood of an accident occurring, and thus the
calculated risk may decrease.  Furthermore, if accidents do not occur, then
people will not perceive a situation to be 'risky', and thus perceived risk
will also decrease.
>
>Much of risk assessment and management is about managing perceptions.
>
>Cheers
>
>david
>
>----------------------------------------------------------------
>david west
>Arup Facade Engineering
>477 Kent Street, Sydney  NSW  2000
>PO Box Q116, QVB Post Office  NSW  1230
>Australia
>Tel:  +61 (02) 9320 9447
>Fax: +61 (02) 9320 9321
>Mobile: +61 (419) 223 405
>Email:  [log in to unmask]
>---------------------------------------------------------------
>