Cheer up Phil, the world is supposed to end in 2012 anyhow!!!
73
Butch
WA0VJR
On Wed, 15
Jun 2011, Phil Scovell wrote:
> Steve,
>
> Thanks for sharing that article. Very interesting and just when Butch
> forked over a fortune for a new radio, too. Poor fellow. What puzzles me
> is that I thought we were the cause of climate change and global warming.
> Now we find out, as if we didn't already know for years, that the sun plays
> one hell of a roll in climate change. No more long path for a few years, I
> guess. Bummer. It beats having the sun nova, that's for sure. I
> definitely don't want to be around for that climate change, when the sun
> goes nova, that is. Especially when they now know a complete nova, for a
> sun our size, can cycle through a complete nova in 7 years; start to finish.
>
> Phil.
> K0NX
>
>
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Steve" <[log in to unmask]>
> To: <[log in to unmask]>
> Sent: Wednesday, June 15, 2011 10:28 AM
> Subject: Scientists predict rare 'hibernation' of sunspots
>
>
>> a.. a.. Print
>> AFP/File =E2=80=93 For years, scientists have been predicting the Sun =
>> would move into solar maximum, a period of intense =E2=80=A6=20
>> by Kerry Sheridan Kerry Sheridan =E2=80=93 Tue Jun 14, 5:38 pm ET
>> WASHINGTON (AFP) =E2=80=93 For years, scientists have been predicting =
>> the Sun would by around 2012 move into solar maximum, a period of =
>> intense flares and sunspot activity, but lately a curious calm has =
>> suggested quite the opposite.
>>
>> According to three studies released in the United States on Tuesday, =
>> experts believe the familiar sunspot cycle may be shutting down and =
>> heading toward a pattern of inactivity unseen since the 17th century.
>>
>> The signs include a missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower =
>> activity near the poles, said experts from the National Solar =
>> Observatory and Air Force Research Laboratory.
>>
>> "This is highly unusual and unexpected," said Frank Hill, associate =
>> director of the NSO's Solar Synoptic Network, as the findings of the =
>> three studies were presented at the annual meeting of the American =
>> Astronomical Society's Solar Physics Division in Las Cruces, New Mexico.
>>
>> "But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in =
>> the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be =
>> going into hibernation."
>>
>> Solar activity tends to rise and fall every 11 years or so. The solar =
>> maximum and solar minimum each mark about half the interval of the =
>> magnetic pole reversal on the Sun, which happens every 22 years.
>>
>> Hill said the current cycle, number 24, "may be the last normal one for =
>> some time and the next one, cycle 25, may not happen for some time.
>>
>> "This is important because the solar cycle causes space weather which =
>> affects modern technology and may contribute to climate change," he told =
>> reporters.
>>
>> Experts are now probing whether this period of inactivity could be a =
>> second Maunder Minimum, which was a 70-year period when hardly any =
>> sunspots were observed between 1645-1715, a period known as the "Little =
>> Ice Age."
>>
>> "If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we'll see for a =
>> few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to =
>> Earth's climate," said Hill.
>>
>> Solar flares and eruptions can send highly charged particles hurtling =
>> toward Earth and interfere with satellite communications, GPS systems =
>> and even airline controls.
>>
>> Geomagnetic forces have been known to occasionally garble the world's =
>> modern gadgetry, and warnings were issued as recently as last week when =
>> a moderate solar flare sent a coronal mass ejection in the Earth's =
>> direction.
>>
>> The temperature change associated with any reduction in sunspot activity =
>> would likely be minimal and may not be enough to offset the impact of =
>> greenhouse gases on global warming, according to scientists who have =
>> published recent papers on the topic.
>>
>> "Recent solar 11-year cycles are associated empirically with changes in =
>> global surface temperature of 0.1 Celsius," said Judith Lean, a solar =
>> physicist with the US Naval Research Laboratory.
>>
>> If the cycle were to stop or slow down, the small fluctuation in =
>> temperature would do the same, eliminating the slightly cooler effect of =
>> a solar minimum compared to the warmer solar maximum. The phenomenon was =
>> witnessed during the descending phase of the last solar cycle.
>>
>> This "cancelled part of the greenhouse gas warming of the period =
>> 2000-2008, causing the net global surface temperature to remain =
>> approximately flat -- and leading to the big debate of why the Earth =
>> hadn't (been) warming in the past decade," Lean, who was not involved in =
>> the three studies presented, said in an email to AFP.
>>
>> A study in the March 2010 issue of Geophysical Research Letters explored =
>> what effect an extended solar minimum might have, and found no more than =
>> a 0.3 Celsius dip by 2100 compared to normal solar fluctuations.
>>
>> "A new Maunder-type solar activity minimum cannot offset the global =
>> warming caused by human greenhouse gas emissions," wrote authors Georg =
>> Feulner and Stefan Rahmstorf, noting that forecasts by the =
>> Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have found a range of 3.7 =
>> Celsius to 4.5 Celsius rise by this century's end compared to the latter =
>> half of the 20th century.=20
>>
>> "Moreover, any offset of global warming due to a grand minimum of solar =
>> activity would be merely a temporary effect, since the distinct solar =
>> minima during the last millennium typically lasted for only several =
>> decades or a century at most."
>>
>
>
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