In a message dated 98-06-30 21:17:27 EDT, [log in to unmask] writes:

<< "How is an estimate actually done?"

 Kevin
 (I hope I have at least a clue) >>

Kevin,

You have a clue, as evidenced by the fact that you are on BP. Give me the long
weekend and I'll give you some of the info you request in further detail. One
of the problems is that I think the general conception is that estimating is a
simple process, and therefore the available courses on the subject only deal
with technical aspects, the easy paart, and do not concern themselves with the
overall art.

My first consciousness of estimating as a craft came when I realized I could
look at a bank of earth, envision a stone wall, and figure out while standing
there looking at it exactly how long it would take to build the whole thing.
This included my doing the physical labor with a fellow mason, excavating for
the foundation, going to the sand pit and picking the stones and loading them
into the truck, unloading the stones, setting the stones, and cleaning up.
Since then I have been fascinated with the idea of envisioning a process in
the abstract, and assigning numerical variables to the vision, either in
allotments of time or money. I think of it like with DH Lawrence's _Rocking
Horse Winner_. I see these things, the first requirement, and have learned to
convert the vision into a measurable commodity, resource allocation. I'm sure
for me it has to do with a warped perspective of time and money. The feeling
aspect makes it possible when entering into a project to predict what the
outcome will be with a sixth sense of what the major problems will be. Project
management is mainly a communication process once the major project factors
have been set into place. If you get the major factors right at the beginning
of a project then it will run smoothly therefrom. I don't say seemingly stupid
or irrelevant things at project meetings for no reason -- the humorous or
distracting comments flush out feelings. The most important major factor in a
project is price, therefore you need an estimate, and it needs to be accurate
so that you reduce your level of fear... fear being a very difficult feeling
to control. Uncertainty, not knowing your level of exposure to risk,
encourages fear. Next is people and relationships. Fear interferes with
relationships, so again, a reliance on an estimate that feels good.

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