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From:
Ken Follett <[log in to unmask]>
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Date:
Thu, 3 Sep 1998 06:17:30 +0000
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John Callan wrote:

> Ken, your estimating techniques seem much more accurate and fun than mine.
> Mine always start with figuring out how much time I can afford to spend on the
> estimate, how accurate it needs to be, whether there is anywhere near
> sufficient information for me to estimate and.....who can I call who can
> visualize DOING the work and will give me a straight answer.  (and you think
> your pace places your manly reputation at risk!)

The techniques I was describing usually occur somewhere lost in the muddle between
middle and end. I never have the leisure to choose the amount of time to do an
estimate as I am always working against a too short bid deadline. Accuracy is
determined by how much money I do not want to lose. Rarely am I given enough
information and often I have to invent it. Yes, I do have to visualize who I will
have do the work. The "easy out" is to send the plans & specs to three other
people and ask them for prices... but then the estimating task is one of chasing
after them because they invariably send back quotes that leave off what they do
not understand. When you get on the project and they say, "Oh, but I thought you
were going to do that." your budget suddenly is worthless. I always start an
estimate wondering if I really want to do the job, and quite often end the
estimate wondering the same thing.

As to manly pace, just as women have to struggle with the beauty myth, I think it
a myth to believe that all men pace at 3 feet.

][<en

--
][<en Follett
SOS Gab & Eti -- http://www.geocities.com/SoHo/Cafe/5836

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