http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0901_exit_strategies_kimenyi.aspx?p=1

Long-Serving African Leaders: Time to Consider Exit Strategies

Africa, Politics, International Relations, Corruption, The Arab Spring
and Middle East Unrest

Mwangi S. Kimenyi, Director, Africa Growth Initiative

The Brookings Institution

September 01, 2011 —

In January, the 10 longest serving African leaders included: Mu’ammar
al-Qadhafi of Libya (42 years) , Jose E. Dos Santos of Angola (32
years) , Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mi of Equatorial Guinea (32 years),
Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe (31 years), Hosni Mubarak of Egypt (30
years), Paul Biya of Cameroon (30 years), Yoweri Museveni of Uganda
(25 years), Blaise Compaore of Burkina Faso (24 years), Zina
el-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia (24 years) and Umar Hassan al-Bashir of
Sudan (22 years). Within a short period of eight months, almost a
third of them have been removed from power.
But others continue to cling on to power. In their company, there is
also Idriss Deby of Chad (21 years), Isaias Afwerki of Eriteria (18
years), Yahya Jammeh of Gambia (17 years) and Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia
(16 years). The common strategies used by these leaders to hold on to
power has in most cases been through imposing restrictions on
political competition, the use of force and manipulating the
constitution such as amending term limits. For the most part, these
strategies have worked for the incumbents, but the events of the last
eight months show that they are no longer sustainable.

Although the revolts have so far been limited to North Africa,
increasingly there are protests against regimes in sub-Saharan Africa.
Whether triggered by economic conditions—food and fuel prices, poor
job opportunities or service delivery failures, the mass protests are
becoming important and have forced policy changes in many regimes.
Slowly but surely, these revolutions are heading south and, unless
sub-Saharan Africa’s long-serving leaders pave the way for inclusive
governance and relinquish their power, these leaders are bound to face
the same fate as the North African ones.

Unfortunately, when the leaders manipulate and abuse their positions
to stay in power, they still find support from western governments
even though democratic governance is supposed to be the core of their
engagement with African nations. This is not only hypocritical but is
also sends the wrong signal to Africans across the region.

However, the recent events in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya should show
sub-Saharan African leaders that western government support will not
insulate autocratic regimes from the demands of their people. For the
long-serving leaders in Africa, clinging onto power is no longer wise.
They would be well-advised to announce their intention to step down
before they are forced out of leadership by their citizens. Likewise,
treating leadership as a “right” or as family property is no longer a
viable strategy. It will no longer be acceptable to the African
people.

If we go by recent events, long-serving leaders— especially those
whose tenures are sustained by undemocratic means— are also harmful to
development. The fact that duration in power is positively related to
the likelihood of mass protests and political instability increases
investment risk for businesses and donors. Furthermore, extended
duration in power often entrenches corruption networks and inequality
as some groups are excluded from leadership and sectors of the
economy. Therefore long-serving leaders serve are deceiving themselves
if they believe that they doing good for their citizens’ livelihoods.

To our leaders in Africa who have served for all those many years, I
thank you. But I also take the opportunity to inform you that the
returns to your continued stay in office are now on the negative side
of the ledger. Your voluntary exit from power will be a great
contribution to your country and a favor to yourself as you avert the
fate that has befallen your colleagues in North Africa. But there is
no need to panic—for there is life after you drive out of the state
house. Look at Nelson Mandela of South Africa, Kenneth Kaunda of
Zambia, Arap Moi of Kenya—they are all doing well with lucrative
retirement packages.

-- 
-Laye
==============================
"With fair speech thou might have thy will,
With it thou might thy self spoil."
--The R.M

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