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Date: | Tue, 24 Feb 2009 16:05:12 -0500 |
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Leland Torrence wrote:
> I do think the forward and back flow in deciding what is relevant or not (I like the simple example with percent reminder of cat/pig/dog) is key to doing fast budgets and estimating for planning purposes.
Yes, I agree fully. Up to now I had thought of this as a recursive
process, but forward-back flow sounds less abstract. I looked into the
Numenta site, interesting open policy toward use of their code
http://www.numenta.com/ (I like to include the URL for those who may
have e-mail programs that don't carry the hyperlink... my sense of a
need for redundancy in communications)... regardless, my impression is
that the software is not much past a souped up version of character
recognition as was used in the handwriting for a Palm. So what I came
away with was an appreciation of modeling processes that our wetware
brains use by which to presume that we are able to predict what will
happen in the future... and that is what estimating is about, at least
to me, developing models by which to interpret patterns and intuit
future outcomes, then attach cost/money to that.
> I am also fascinated with what could be "seen" if we could focus on "causes" that are typically not relevant to the brain.
I agree with this in many ways... when I played Railroad Tycoon a lot I
began to see patterns in the management of complex systems, particularly
at points where the complexity went over a tipping point into chaos and
the system fell apart. I began seeing estimating differently from that
experience. It also lead me to developing charts and graphs by which to
monitor the estimate/bid process. So, yes, to see beyond what we usually
perceive as relevant is important, but we also need to be cautious that
there can always be a black swan.
Later,
Ken
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