We are just about at the bottom of another Solar cycle.  The
experts expect us to hit bottom in about a year.  I have been a ham
since 1969, on the air since 1970 although not much on HF, and I have
observed 4 Solar cycles during this time.  I think the best one was in
1978, actually between 1978-1980 and here's what I remember.

	When we hit the lowest point in the Solar cycles, the flux
number broadcast from WWV at 18 minutes past the hour can reach as low
as 66.  I have never heard it lower, but that certainly doesn't mean
it hasn't gotten there.

	When it is like that in Winter, the higher bands suck green trench
water.  You don't hear much above 18 MHZ and ten meters is as dead as
a door nail all day long except for the occasional Sporadic E opening.

	forty Meters stays a little long all day and a lot long all
night if you can hear anything between the broadcasts.  Now's the time
to find big DX on 80 and 160 because those are about the only HF bands
open at night in Winter.  As some of you have already said, the
problem is that those bands are too long most of the time.

	I really don't notice anything at all unusual about this low
point in the Solar cycle.  At night, the maximum usable frequency
pretty much hits below 10 MHZ so that as you tune up from there, there
is lots of dead space.

	The ARRL propagation forecasts expect things to start looking
up again around 2008.

	I remember that in 1975 which was about the minimum of that
Solar cycle, one could hear no CB skip or ten-meter activity on Winter
days.  By 1979, you could hear the BBC television audio on 41.5x MHZ
from 8:30 in the morning until about 14:00 in the afternoon.  Some
days, it was much better than others, but there was stuff to hear up
to almost 50 MHZ, meaning that 6 was open.

	The Solar cycles tend to rise faster than they fall so it is
not linear at all.

	Basically, be patient and things will get a lot better in
about 3 to 4 years.

Martin McCormick WB5AGZ  Stillwater, OK 
OSU Information Technology Department Network Operations Group
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