IV. There is abundant evidence that economic and geo-political motives are
driving this war, with control of oil and oil profits at the top of the list.
Since Administration stated reasons for war ("Saddam is evil and might use
weapons of mass destruction") don't add up, it is essential in a democracy
that we understand what might be other Administration objectives. The
Administration's "real" objectives have to do with the strategic importance
of the Middle East, our long-standing desire to control it's oil resources,
assured access for US corporations, to maintain dominance and stability of
the dollar in the world economy, and to impose US global control to ensure
our economic and political interests.
Even major GOP contributors have misgivings. In a full page ad in the Wall
Street Journal 1-13-03, entitled "A Republican Dissent on Iraq," they stated,
Mr. President….The candidate we supported in 2000 promised a more humble
nation in our dealings with the world. We gave him our votes and our
campaign contributions. That candidate was you. We feel betrayed. We want
our money back. We want our country back…A billion bitter enemies will rise
out of this war.
Background information
1. In 1958 the Iraqi revolution deposed the British-backed monarchy. In
1972, Iraq nationalized its Western-owned oil fields. It then became the
target of CIA covert operations with the help of the Shah of Iran to foment a
Kurdish uprising in the North which contains half of Iraq's oil supply.
2. Iraq has oil reserves of over 110 billion barrels of proven oil reserves
and probably more, the second largest after Saudi Arabia's. Control of this
oil is the big prize. Saddam Hussein has been making deals with drilling and
service contractors from Turkey, Russia France, deals which exclude US and
British firms. Iraq also tries to "rattle the markets" with cut offs, or
increasing exports. "All of this must be bad news for those excluded from
the party: the Americans. Yet they do not seem too worried. That is because
there is one teeny doubt about all these deals. Will they be worth the paper
they are written on when Mr. Hussein one day becomes a former dictator?"
("Saddam's Charm Offensive", The Economist, 10-12-18, 2002, p. 58.)
3. A key reason for this upcoming war is the administration's goal of
preventing further OPEC momentum toward the euro as an oil transaction
currency standard…. However, in order to pre-empt OPEC, they need to gain
geo-strategic control of Iraq along with its 2nd largest proven oil reserves……
The Federal Reserve's greatest nightmare is that OPEC will switch its
international transactions from a dollar standard to a euro standard. Iraq
actually made this switch in Nov. 2002…. (The Real but Unspoken Reasons for
the Upcoming Iraq War, W. Clark ([log in to unmask]), 1-26-03, Independent Media
Center, http://wwwindymedia.org:8081)
4. The vision and strategy for a new American global empire is laid out in
the Administration's "National Security Strategy" released 9-20-02, and in a
September 2000 paper entitled "Rebuilding America's Defenses: Strategies,
Forces and Resources For A New Century". (Both documents are available on
the internet; for the latter see "Project for the New American Century").
Together, these documents plan for a newly aggressive military and foreign
policy along with creation and enforcement of a worldwide "Pax Americana" in
which the U.S. would maintain permanent U.S. military and economic domination
of every region on the globe. This includes military bases in Iraq from
which the U.S. can dominate the Middle East, including neighboring Iran.
("The president's real goal in Iraq", Jay Bookman, deputy editorial page
editor, Atlanta Journal-Constitution 9-29-02).
5. Many sources cite as a reason for an invasion, the desire of the Pentagon
to test it's new technology. And an overwhelming attack on Iraq would be a
strong message of non-resistance to the rest of the world!
V. There is widespread concern about far-reaching consequences.
The Bush Administration is ignoring the many, predicted humanitarian,
political, economic, military, legal, environmental and cultural consequences
of an invasion, including the key concern that an attack will decrease our
security as a result of increased terrorism and destabilization of the
region. (Consequences of a War on Iraq, Global Policy Forum. This source,
available on the internet, describes many reports in these categories, except
environmental)
1. Decreased security
Many authoritative persons predict world-wide anger at the U.S.,
destabilization of the Middle East, increased terrorism resulting in
decreasing security for the American people. For Example:
· …In Japan, American occupation forces quickly became 50,000 friends. In
Iraq, they would quickly become 50,000 terrorist targets….Nations such as
China can only view the prospect of an American military consumed for the
next generation by the turmoil of the Middle East as a glorious windfall.
(James Webb, former Sec. of Navy under Ronald Reagan, Decorated Marine
Veteran, www.opinionjournal.com)
· If we go in (to Iraq) unilaterally, or without the full weight of
international organizations behind us, if we go in with a very sparse number
of allies, if we go in without an effective information operation…we're
liable to supercharge recruiting for al-Qaida. (Gen. Wesley Clark, former
NATO Supreme Commander. www/usatoday/com. 9-9-02)
2. Increased likelihood that Iraq will use chemical or biological weapons
An invasion may precipitate Iraq's use of whatever chemical or biological
weapons they may yet have. Baghdad for now appears to be drawing a line
short of conducting terrorist attacks with conventional or CBW (chemical and
biological weapons) against the United States. Should Saddam conclude that a
U.S.-led attack could no longer be deterred he probably would become much
less constrained in adopting terrorist actions. (George Tenet, CIA Director,
10-02, www.naplesnews.com/02/10/perspective)
3. Estimated costs of an Iraq invasion and follow-on costs. The
Administration has not released any study of costs, although fired economic
advisor, Larry Lindsey predicted a cost of $100 to $200 billion. The
Congressional Budget Office estimates:
· Initial deployment of troops: $9 billion to $13 billion
· Conducting the war: $6 billion to $9 per month
· Returning forces to US: $5 billion to $7 billion
· Temporary occupation of Iraq: $1 billion to $4 billion per month
A study by Professor William D. Nordhaus, considers costs of direct military
spending and follow-on costs including occupation and peacekeeping,
reconstruction and nation-building, humanitarian assistance, impact on oil
markets and macroeconomic impact. He estimates a low (short and favorable)
cost of $99 billion and a high (protracted and unfavorable) cost of $1,924
billion, or nearly two trillion dollars. This excludes costs to other
countries or costs related to world-wide reactions. While Nordhaus estimates
direct military sending between $50 and $140 billion, occupation and
peacekeeping could go as high as $500 billion. The potential for economic
instability and worldwide depression should oil markets be disrupted is very
real with a high end cost of $1169 billion. ("The Economic Consequences of a
War with Iraq", American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Committee on
International Security Studies, 11-02,
www.amacad.org/publications/monographs/war_with_Iraq.pdf)
These horrific costs are likely to have devastating effects on our economy,
human and infrastructure needs. Our States and Cities are already facing
severe budget deficits, and are cutting essential services as a result of the
recession and federal tax cuts.
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