Cooking the books -
NATO's ethnic cleansing claims challenged
by Michel Chossudovsky (Revised 2-10-00)
NATO's justification for bombing Yugoslavia on humanitarian grounds has
been refuted by the Western alliance's own official figures and
documentary
evidence. The recently released OSCE report entitled "As Seen, As Told:
Analysis of the Human Rights Findings of the OSCE Kosovo Verification
Mission" suggests that the allegation of mass deportations is a
fabrication. 1
Although heavily slanted in its main conclusions, the OSCE figures
suggest
that there were proportionately more Serbs (as a percentage of
population)
fleeing Kosovo than ethnic Albanians which puts an obvious question mark
on
NATO's assertion that organized mass expulsions of ethnic Albanians were
taking place.
According to OSCE numbers and Kosovar Albanian sources on population
size
and distribution, an estimated 45.7 percent of the Albanian population
and
59.5 percent of the Serb population had fled Kosovo during the bombings
(i.e. from 23 March to 9 June 1999).2
The OSCE report summarises the balance-sheet of ethnic Albanian refugees
as
numbering 862,979. In a secluded footnote at the bottom of the main
table,
the report nonetheless acknowledges that: "In addition [to the 862,979
ethnic Albanian refugees], more than 100,000 Serb IDPs [Internally
displaced persons] are estimated to have left Kosovo and to have been
registered in Serbia and Montenegro". 3 Whereas ethnic Albanians
(including
those who fled to Montenegro) are categorized as "refugees", Serbs who
fled
Kosovo during the same period are casually identified as "Internally
Displaced Persons". The figures for ethnic Albanians are very precise in
contrast to those indicated for the Serbs in the footnote. The number of
refugees belonging to other ethnic groups who fled the province during
the
bombings is not even acknowledged.
According to Kosovo Albanian sources, the Province had a total
population
of 2.1 million of which 90 percent are ethnic Albanians, 8 percent Serbs
and 2 percent are other ethnic groups.4 Based on these figures (which
are
accepted both by NATO and the post-conflict KLA provisional government)
there were an estimated 1.89 million ethnic Albanians and 168,000 Serbs
in
Kosovo.
In accordance with the above population breakdown, the exodus of Serbs
(as
a percentage of population) was larger than that of the ethnic Albanian
population. According to OSCE numbers (from UNHCR sources), it is
estimated
that 45.7 percent of the Albanian population and more than 59.5 percent
of
the Serb population fled Kosovo during the bombings (i.e. from 23 March
to
9 June 1999).
In other words, Serbs --who ostensibly were not the target of "ethnic
cleansing perpetrated by the Serbs"-- had also fled the theatre of the
war
in Kosovo. If there had been a deliberate and cohesive policy of ethnic
cleansing and massacres directed against ethnic Albanians, the
percentages
would have been markedly different and this is something which NATO was
cautious not to reveal to public opinion while the bombings were
ongoing.
The above estimates depend on the veracity of the OSCE-UNHCR refugee
figures as well as on the reliability of the data on population size and
distribution. In estimating these percentages, we have accepted official
OSCE-UNHCR refugee numbers at face value, namely that the OSCE Report
has
not artificially "inflated" the number of ethnic Albanian refugees nor
has
it "deflated" the number of Serbs who fled Kosovo during the bombings
with
a view to vindicating NATO's claim of ethnic cleansing. We have also
taken
Kosovar Albanian assumptions pertaining to population size and
distribution. In other words, the percentages are derived from their
numbers! Moreover, it should be emphasised that the percentage of Serbs
who
left Kosovo estimated at 59.5 percent is based on the 100,000 figure
given
by the OSCE. Yet the OSCE report states that the number of Serbs who
fled
Kosovo during the same period is "more than 100,000".
Accounting for biases in the OSCE-UNHCR figures and margins of error in
the
data on population, the estimates do not support NATO's allegation of a
policy of mass deportation directed against ethnic Albanians.
Ironically, the OSCE Report rather than using Kosovar Albanian sources
on
population, acknowledges the assumptions of Belgrade's 1991 Census data
(also in a discrete footnote) which indicates the ethnic Albanian
population at 82 percent of total population. Yet the Census was
boycotted
by ethnic Albanians and the figures were never recognised by the
parallel
provisional government of Kosovo. Why does the OSCE acknowledge
Belgrade's
1991 Census when NATO and KLA statements repeatedly indicate that the
ethnic Albanian population is at 90 percent? Evidently, the use of the
1991
Census data by those who have rejected it, is in this case to their
political advantage. Based on the 1991 Census figures, the estimated
percentage of each population group which fled Kosovo would be 53.7
percent
for the ethnic Albanians and more than 51.5 percent for the Serbs.5 Yet
even in this case, NATO's claim of mass deportations is not borne out.
The refugee crisis, we were told repeatedly during the War was limited
to
ethnic Albanians. According to the Western media, Serb civilians had
been
protected by the Serb police and Armed forces. The large scale exodus of
Serbs from Kosovo prior to June 9, 1999 (acknowledged by the figures
contained in the OSCE Report) was simply not mentioned. To reveal the
numbers would have discredited NATO's main justification for launching
its
"humanitarian war".
FROM THE HORSE'S MOUTH
Other documentary evidence including an official report of the German
foreign ministry published prior to the War, confirms that there was no
evidence of "ethnic cleansing" in Kosovo in the months immediately
preceding the bombings. Who is lying? German Foreign Minister Joschka
Fischer had justified NATO's intervention pointing to a "humanitarian
catastrophe", yet the internal documents of his own ministry stated
exactly
the opposite: "Even in Kosovo an explicit political persecution linked
to
Albanian ethnicity is not verifiable. The East of Kosovo is still not
involved in armed conflict. Public life in cities like Pristina,
Urosevac,
Gnjilan, etc. has, in the entire conflict period, continued on a
relatively
normal basis. The actions of the security forces [were] not directed
against the Kosovo-Albanians as an ethnically defined group, but against
the military opponent [KLA] and its actual or alleged supporters."...6
Moreover, a report of the United States Committee on Refugees (USCR)
confirms a significant reduction in the number of refugees and
internally
displaced persons in the period following the signing of the October 13,
1998 agreement between U.S. Special Envoy Richard Holbrooke and Federal
Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) President Slobodan Milosevic. According to
USCR, the overall refugee situation had improved with the entry of the
OSCE
Kosovo Verification Mission (KVM). The USCR report also confirms that
"KLA
ethnic cleansing of ethnic Serb civilian population pockets intensified
in
December [1998]" substantiating the results of the German Foreign Office
intelligence report. But we were told time and again that the Serbs
rather
than the KLA had been responsible for ethnic cleansing in the months
leading up to the War... 7
The OSCE-UNHCR figures on the number of refugees rather than supporting
NATO's main justification for waging the war, suggest that more than
half
the Serb population had also fled Kosovo during the war. This tendency
could be explained by the fact that the KLA had been responsible for
relaying intelligence to NATO pertaining to potential targets in the
bombing operation. Moreover, a history of the war also suggests that the
massacres and atrocities directed against the Serbs by the KLA Military
Command (amply documented for the period after June 9) had already
commenced prior to the arrival of KFOR forces in Kosovo.
NATO'S TWO "HUMANITARIAN PREMISES" INVALIDATED
NATO's pretext for bombing Yugoslavia on humanitarian grounds rests on
two
central premises: 1) the alleged indiscriminate mass killings of
Albanian
civilians (premise number one); 2) the implementation of a deliberate
policy of mass deportations or "ethnic cleansing" (premise number two).
Both these premises have now been refuted by NATO's own evidence and
documentary evidence
The alleged indiscriminate mass killings of Albanian civilians had
earlier
been invalidated by the FBI and European forensic teams working under
the
auspices of the Hague Tribunal (ICTY) casting doubt on NATO's
justification
for waging the war. The forensic and police investigators had uncovered
several hundred bodies in grave sites in Kosovo as opposed to the 10,000
to
100,000 civilian massacres claimed by NATO and Western governments as a
pretext for waging the War. British Prime Minister Tony Blair had
announced
that President Milosevic was "set on a Hitler style genocide equivalent
to
the extermination of the Jews during World war II".8 " "Genocide is
starting," stated German Defense Minister Rudolf Scharping.10...
The Hague Tribunal (ICTY) (while upholding the war crimes indictment
against members of the Yugoslav government), has acknowledged the
exhumation"the allegations of indiscriminate mass murder, rape
camps,...crematoriums, mutilation of the dead have not been borne out"
by
the police investigations and forensic evidence. 12
NO REMAINING LEG TO STAND ON Since the release of the forensic reports
--which have invalidated premise number one--, the policy of mass
deportations against ethnic Albanians (premise number two) is now being
upheld by NATO and the Western media as "a sufficient justification" for
launching the war. In the words of Madeleine Albright "opposing ethnic
cleansing is central to our values... We are reaffirming NATO's core
purpose as a defender of democracy, stability and human decency on
European
soil."13 Yet NATO's claim of mass deportations has now also been refuted
by
the figures contained in the OSCE report. NATO has no remaining leg to
stand on. Official documentary evidence (including the forensic reports
and
the data on the number of refugees) unequivocally refute NATO's two
central
postulates for waging the war. What then was the justification for the
humanitarian bombings? What was the hidden agenda? Ultimately the truth
must prevail, public opinion must be informed and those who are
responsible
for waging this criminal war must be brought to trial.
NOTES
1. OSCE, Kosovo/ Kosova, As Seen, As Told, An analysis of the human
rights
findings of the OSCE Kosovo Verification Mission, October 1998 to June
1999, Warsaw, 1999.
2. Ibid
3. Ibid.
4. Figures for 1993. See Albania Worldwide Web, GOTOBUTTON BM_1_
http://www.albanian.com/main/. See also Musa Limani, Pristina, The
Association of Lawyers of Kosova, 1992. Kosovar Albanian estimates place
the population of Kosovo at 2.3 million for 2000.
5. The Government of Yugoslavia 1991 Census data for Kosovo identified a
total population of 1,956,196 of which 82.2 % are Albanians, 9.9 % Serbs
and 7.9 % other ethnic groups. The Census was boycotted by the ethnic
Albanian population. During the 1990s, the evidence suggests that
Kosovar
Serbs left the Province in large numbers.
6. Intelligence Report from the German Foreign Office, January 12, 1999
to
the Administrative Court of Trier.
7. See USCR GOTOBUTTON BM_2_
http://www.refugees.org/world/countryrpt/europe/yugoslavia.htm
8. Quoted in Peter Gowan, Kosovo; the war and its aftermath, Labour
Focus
on Eastern Europe, no. 64, 1999, p. 26.
9. CBS , May 17, 1999.
10. Quoted in Peter Gowan, op. cit.
11. Reuters, 10 November 1999.
12. Wall Street Journal, 31 December 1999.
13. Quoted in Time Magazine, May 17, 1999, p. 25-26.
C Copyright by Michel Chossudovsky, Ottawa, February 2000. All rights
reserved. Permission is granted to post this text on noncommercial
community internet sites, provided the essay remains intact and the
copyright note is displayed. The text can also be photocopied for
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